Melaka polls could determine if Umno needs PAS for GE16, says analyst

With less than two weeks to go before nomination day for the Melaka state election, Umno’s silence over a possible pact with PAS may signal a desire to test the party’s electoral strength by going solo, according to an analyst.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said Umno’s performance in the Melaka polls would likely shape its decision on whether to forge a nationwide electoral pact ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).

“If it can win on its own, it will be in a better position to decide how much it needs PAS for GE16,” he told FMT.

Mazlan also said Umno was hesitant about forming an alliance with PAS for the Nov 14 polls because it was confident of retaining the 21 seats it won in the 2021 state election and saw little need to compromise.

Barisan Nasional chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi previously said that while Umno intends to defend its 21 seats, it was open to negotiating with potential partners over the remaining seven constituencies.

Zahid, who is also the Umno president, said the party was also open to potential seat swaps.

Mazlan said the main concern was whether these swaps would involve PAS strongholds, and questioned how many seats the Islamic party would be willing to hand over to BN.

Hisommudin Bakar, who heads the think tank Ilham Centre, attributed Umno’s silence to concerns over whether cooperation would benefit BN or strengthen PAS, which competes for the same pool of Malay voters.

“Umno needs to assess whether cooperation would help revive the party or give PAS a boost,” he said.

Hisommudin said BN’s recent victories in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state polls were partly due to PAS supporters who wanted to vote out Pakatan Harapan.

In Johor, BN won 48 of the 56 seats it contested, while in Negeri Sembilan, it secured 18 of the 25 seats contested.

“The question is whether BN can retain its seats without the support of PAS voters,” he said, adding that, by going solo, BN risked facing three-cornered contests that cost it seats in the 2018 and 2022 general elections.

Still, Hisommudin said, Umno’s silence allows it to keep its options open while weighing the pros and cons of an alliance with any party and negotiating seat allocations.

Jayum Jawan of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia said Umno had little reason to seek an alliance following BN’s successes in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, adding that the party appeared to be “on the rebound”.

He said an alliance with PAS could slow Umno’s revival by forcing it to give up seats it could win on its own.

Jayum also dismissed suggestions that Umno feared PAS as a national rival, although he acknowledged that the Islamic party had enough influence to demand concessions in future negotiations.

“Surely no political party would want to give up seats to a new partner, especially when it believes it can win those seats on its own merit,” he said.

Subscribe to our newsletter and get news delivered to your mailbox.