Pollster warns Likud that attacking Ofer Winter is a ‘very big gamble’ as party drops to 18 seats

"What has happened... since the candidate lists were submitted, is Ofer Winter, who is eating into the coalition bloc, eating into Likud and bringing it down to around 18 seats," pollster Lazar said.

Likud has weakened in recent weeks as Ofer Winter draws support from undecided right-wing voters, while the opposition bloc is also eroding, pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar told 103FM on Thursday.

"Likud has indeed been weakening in recent weeks. In our latest poll a week ago, it fell to 18 seats," Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research, told Nissim Mishal and Anat Davidov. "Already during the large protests against the judicial reform, Likud lost its 30-seat majority. It dropped to the 25-26 seat range, and then October 7 came and initially cut it to around 17-18 seats, which is basically where it stands in the polls today."

"What has happened over the past month, since the candidate lists were submitted, is Ofer Winter, who is eating into the coalition bloc, eating into Likud and bringing it down to around 18 seats," Lazar said.

"If Likud is aiming to be the largest party, or at least the party closest to the largest party on the other side, which is Eisenkot's Yashar, then the panic is justified. But if Likud is aiming to preserve its bloc, the balance between the blocs has remained more or less at the same level for quite a long time, at around 50 seats. Our latest poll also shows them at 50 seats. On Wednesday, we saw 51. So in that respect, it is stable. The dilemma is what kind of campaign to run."

Regarding the aggressive approach Likud has taken toward Winter, Lazar warned that the strategy could prove risky.

'A very big gamble'

"In my view, it's a very big gamble, because Ofer Winter is gathering votes from what I call disappointed Likud voters. Or some would call them disappointed Netanyahu voters, or right-wing voters who say that it is difficult or impossible for them to vote Likud after October 7, after the past three years," he said. 

"If Ofer Winter weren't there for them, they might have stayed home. I don't think they would have switched sides. There is almost no movement from one side to the other. Maybe one seat's worth of them could have moved to the other side, which is also very significant in the political reality."

The picture, Lazar said, is also complicated on the other side of the political map.

"That bloc, including its largest parties, has also been weakening in recent weeks. Yashar dropped to 23 seats, B'Yachad dropped to 13 seats. The same process is happening there. There is almost no movement between the sides," he said.

"You could say that Ofer Winter perhaps took about one seat, maybe even less than that, from the other bloc. He is mainly relying on undecided voters. The story here is the undecided voters. There is still a significant group of around 8%, which is 10 seats. The question is who will manage to get them out of the house and convince them to vote, and then where they will go to vote."

Confusion among supporters over who they want as Prime Minister

Lazar concluded by explaining that the question the opposition must ask is which party will emerge the largest.

"So on the one hand, that may create confusion among supporters who don't know whom they want as prime minister, Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, perhaps Avigdor Liberman. On the other hand, this bloc has a banner saying, 'We are going to replace Netanyahu, no matter who does it.' So that may also be a dilemma,” he said.

“There is also the Reservists and Economic Party. In the latest poll, it crossed the electoral threshold, but like Ofer Winter, it is still not in a safe zone. Here too, there is a question of whether to go after it head-on or use it to gather votes that otherwise might not have gone to this bloc."