One Nation’s ‘net-negative’ migration plan prompts recession alarm

International students and the families of skilled migrants would be the target of a One Nation immigration crackdown, as the minor party vows to slash the number of temporary visa holders by 750,000 over three years.

One Nation is padding out its cornerstone policy following weeks of confusion, as its MPs publicly contradict each other and leader Pauline Hanson has appeared to use different migration metrics interchangeably.

The minor party is pressing its advantage on migration – voters have consistently backed One Nation as the party best placed to tackle the issue in the Resolve Political Monitor – as Labor grapples with its delayed plan to reduce net overseas migration from 300,000 to 225,000 a year.

“Vested interests and elite economists will shriek at the prospect of these cuts,” Hanson said in a statement on Monday.

“But Canada has shown you can cut migrant numbers, take pressure off rents and still grow the economy,” she said, citing Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s crackdown on student arrivals.

Under Hanson’s plan, international students and graduates would be the primary target, with a cap of 100,000 visas per year, tougher eligibility criteria and an end to temporary visa hopping.

“One Nation’s plan will return the temporary migrant population to around 2017 levels and the international student population to 2015 levels,” Hanson said.

“Over the three years net overseas migration will be net-negative. Following this, One Nation’s net overseas migration ceiling of 130,000 per year would remain in place.”

The One Nation leader added that skilled migrant visas sponsored by employers would be uncapped, but workers’ ability to bring their families to Australia would be substantially restricted.

“Temporary skilled migration will no longer operate as a sham family migration pathway,” Hanson said.

The senator has also vowed to remove the roughly 77,000 unlawful non-citizens who have overstayed their visas.

“Illegal migrants will be given three months to leave Australia. Those who depart will be allowed to apply for a visa in the future. Those who remain unlawfully after this period will be subject to immigration enforcement and a lifetime ban from re-entering Australia.”

A new “high-value” postgraduate visa would be made available to 15,000 students to “help attract the world’s brightest minds in science, engineering and medical research”.

Hanson said seasonal migrant programs, such as for Pacific workers and working holidaymakers, would not be touched.

Labor and the Coalition slammed the proposal, arguing such deep cuts could push the Australian economy into a recession.

Environment Minister Murray Watt said the “willy-nilly” slashing of numbers would exacerbate Australia’s existing serious labour shortages in critical sectors such as healthcare and construction, particularly in the regions.

“I don’t know when Pauline Hanson or Barnaby Joyce last walked into an abattoir in regional Australia, full of migrant workers, when they last walked into a hospital, an aged care facility,” Watt told ABC TV.

“Those industries would be decimated if we didn’t have some form of migration into Australia. We know the numbers need to come down, but we need to do it in a sensible way that won’t rob Australians of the services they need and drive up food prices.”

Watt said the numbers had to come from somewhere, and likened One Nation’s policy to a “magic pudding”.

“They think that they can cut the numbers by hundreds of thousands, but they can still have this and they can still have that,” he said.

Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume said One Nation’s “headline numbers” could have a disastrous effect on the economy.

“Already today, economists have come out and said that potentially, with the numbers that One Nation is throwing around, you could send the economy into recession, and that means everybody will end up paying for a poorly thought-through migration policy,” Hume told ABC radio.

More to come

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