Saudi Arabia expected to ramp up strikes on Houthis after deadly Riyadh airport attack, experts say

Saudi Arabia is unlikely to back down in the face of the Houthis following an attack on Riyadh’s airport that killed 12 people and wounded 309, with the kingdom likely stepping up its military campaign against the Iran-backed group, regional experts told The Jerusalem Post.

The attack, which marked a significant escalation in the Houthis’ campaign against Saudi Arabia, has exposed the kingdom’s vulnerability to strikes against civilian infrastructure. Bernard Haykel, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), said Saudi Arabia had long understood the Houthis’ ability to carry out such attacks, particularly with what he described as support from Iran and Iraqi Shiite militias.

“My sense is that they’re not going to buckle. They’re not going to just capitulate to the Houthis because of this,” he explained.

Haykel said Riyadh now faces a choice between reaching an accommodation with the Houthis or intensifying its military campaign against them, adding that he expects the Saudis will pursue the latter course and rely more heavily on Yemeni forces opposed to the group.

“I think that they’re going to ramp up against the Houthis,” he said.

The attack comes as Saudi Arabia faces the consequences of a broader regional conflict that Riyadh had sought to avoid. According to Haykel, Saudi leaders opposed the war against Iran and made considerable efforts to prevent it, but now recognize that they will have to bear some of its costs.

“They realize that they have to pay a price,” he said.

Former ambassador says attack shocked Saudis

Michael Ratney, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the scale and audacity of the attack had shocked the Saudis, even though they were familiar with the Houthis’ military capabilities.

Ratney noted that the Houthis had already carried out several strikes against airports, including in Riyadh, during the preceding week, while the latest was the most serious of those incidents. “I think they were shocked, but in a way understood that this is what the Houthis are all about,” Ratney explained.

He identified the targeting of civilian airports as a particularly significant escalation. In the past, the Houthis had generally focused on military installations and energy infrastructure, including Saudi military bases and energy facilities.

“For them to target civilian airports with the expectation of civilian casualties is really a new escalation for the Houthis,” Ratney said.

The attacks put Riyadh in a difficult position as it seeks to achieve its military objectives in Yemen without triggering a wider escalation that could expose additional Saudi infrastructure to retaliation.

Ratney said Saudi Arabia’s immediate military priority was to help the Yemeni army retake positions along the coast near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that the Houthis had seized the previous month.

“They’re determined to get the Houthis off of the Bab el-Mandeb,” he said, adding that Riyadh would probably then look for a way to de-escalate the conflict.

Riyadh growing concerns over lack of American assistance

Both experts pointed to Riyadh's concerns about the limits of American military assistance, especially as Washington deploys forces and resources across the region.

Haykel said Saudi Arabia was disappointed that the United States was not better prepared to help defend the kingdom against attacks from the Houthis and Iran, particularly given the potential shortage of missile-defense systems.

“I think there’s disappointment that the Americans are not better prepared and better able to help in fighting the Houthis and the Iranians,” he said.

At the same time, Haykel said Saudi leaders understand that American military power has limits, particularly when US forces are already heavily committed across the Persian Gulf.

Ratney said the United States was providing some assistance behind the scenes, including intelligence sharing, targeting and operational planning. But he added that Riyadh would prefer more direct American involvement in airstrikes.

“Clearly what they would like is US support on airstrikes, and I think there is some frustration,” he said.

The attack could influence Washington’s willingness to provide more overt military support, Ratney said, although he cautioned that Trump’s response was difficult to predict.

Still, Ratney said neither Saudi Arabia nor the United States appeared eager to escalate the conflict further.

Saudis worried about further strikes on civilian infrastructure

The concern is that intensifying military operations against Iran or the Houthis could provoke disproportionate retaliation, with civilian infrastructure rather than military targets bearing the consequences.

“None of them really want to escalate at this point because they see the result,” Ratney said.

The attack also raises questions about whether Israel could play a greater role in helping Saudi Arabia counter the Houthi threat, given Israel’s experience confronting Iranian-backed groups and its advanced intelligence and air-defense capabilities.

“The political risk of that outweighs any kind of military benefits that they might derive,” Ratney said, explaining that Saudi leaders are reluctant to see Israeli politicians publicly highlight or take credit for cooperation between the two countries.

Haykel was more skeptical about Israel’s ability to deliver a decisive military blow against the Houthis, particularly through intelligence-led operations targeting the group’s leadership.

He said Israel had developed extensive intelligence capabilities against Hezbollah in Lebanon, allowing it to target the organization’s senior figures and commanders. He does not believe Israel currently possesses a comparable level of intelligence on the Houthis in Yemen.

“If the Israelis had the intelligence on the Houthis to, say, destroy the leadership of the Houthis and the second-, third-tier commanders, you know, what they did to Hezbollah, basically, if they could do that in Yemen, that would be an incredible service and help in this war,” Haykel said.

For Riyadh, the immediate challenge remains how to deter further Houthi attacks without becoming trapped in another prolonged and costly conflict in Yemen. Both experts agree that it will be hard.