Iran could make or break Trump’s final two years, historian argues

Hanson expects Trump to rely on executive orders domestically and retain considerable freedom abroad, while predicting that Democrats would block judicial and Cabinet nominations.

US President Donald Trump will retain substantial freedom to pursue his foreign policy agenda following the Republican midterm defeat, with Iran and the economy likely to determine his remaining presidency, historian Victor Davis Hanson argued in The Free Press on Wednesday.

Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and Senate in Tuesday’s election, with gains including Senate victories in Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and Kansas. Their new majorities will take office in January, creating divided government for the final two years of Trump’s term.

Hanson, a conservative commentator and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, identified Iran’s nuclear program as a central test for Trump.

“He will succeed or fail on whether the economy takes off and he achieves the denuclearization of Iran, and quickly,” Hanson wrote.

He expected Trump to rely on executive orders domestically and retain considerable freedom abroad, while predicting that Democrats would block judicial and Cabinet nominations. He compared the Republican setback with the midterm defeats suffered by Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010.

Reuters reported that frustration over the Iran war and living costs helped drive the Democratic gains. Trump accepted the election outcome and indicated he would work with Democrats, while maintaining that he would veto legislation he considered unacceptable, according to the report.

Congressional pressure on Iran policy

The Senate’s authority to confirm senior administration officials and federal judges gives Democrats a direct means of blocking appointments. Congress also controls federal spending, providing another way to press the White House over its policies.

Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber, a higher threshold than the simple majorities needed to control Congress.

In a separate analysis published Wednesday, The Jerusalem Post’s Yonah Jeremy Bob argued that Democrats could use investigations, delayed appointments and pressure on defense budgets to constrain Trump’s handling of Iran. He urged Israel to engage with both the president and congressional Democrats on its security concerns.

Hanson warns of overreach by Democratic party

In an election-night interview published by The Daily Signal on Wednesday, Hanson predicted that Democrats could weaken their own position by overreaching after their victories. He cited the political backlash against Republican efforts to remove Clinton from office as an example of how congressional victories can be followed by miscalculations.

“I think the Democrats will overreach,” he said.

Hanson also argued that victories by candidates he regards as too far to the left, including Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed and Texas’s James Talarico, could push contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination toward more progressive positions ahead of the 2028 election.