War drains 2bn barrels of Middle East oil output — Kpler

The ongoing war in the Middle East has caused cumulative crude oil and condensate production outages exceeding 2 billion barrels, with about 5 million barrels per day of output still offline as of October 6, according to energy intelligence firm Kpler.

In its latest report, Kpler said the conflict has continued to disrupt regional oil supplies, with Iran accounting for a large portion of the production outages.

The report noted that total Middle Eastern crude oil and condensate exports have temporarily returned to pre-war levels, supported by production in the United Arab Emirates running above its pre-war level and a likely short-lived increase in Saudi Arabia’s output.

According to Kpler, Saudi Arabia’s crude production approached its capacity of 12 million barrels per day towards the end of September, while crude and condensate exports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day in the week beginning 21 September, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, the firm estimated that about 5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude oil and condensate production remained offline, compared with February 2026 levels.

It said Iran continues to account for a significant share of the shortfall, with its production largely reflecting domestic demand and limited additional capacity available from onshore crude inventories.

The report added that Saudi Arabia’s oil supply outlook remains uncertain despite a recovery in flows through its East-West pipeline, which transports crude across the country towards the Red Sea.

Saudi officials said pipeline operations resumed five to six days after it was hit, with flows recovering to 5.8 million barrels per day.

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Despite the recovery, Kpler expects Saudi Arabia’s crude supply to average around 9 million barrels per day in October, citing the risk of further attacks on the kingdom’s oil infrastructure.

The report said Houthi strikes have damaged the Jazan and Najran airports in southwestern Saudi Arabia. The group also claimed attacks on Riyadh’s airport and the Rabigh refinery.

A Houthi official also warned that Saudi oil facilities and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could be targeted if Iran wanted it.

Kpler reported that the threat of further attacks could prevent Saudi Arabia from sustaining higher production levels in the coming weeks, despite the recent recovery in pipeline flows.

Its data indicated that Saudi Arabia’s oil supply balancing factor recorded an average surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in August, implying a stock build of about 50 million barrels during the month.

The crisis between the United States and Iran started on February 28. It led to the total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and triggered a sharp rise in oil prices globally.