Oil price decline lifts mood, but volatility remains high

NEW DELHI: Brent crude prices fell below $94 a barrel late on Wednesday for the first time in two months, before inching up to $97.7 Wednesday evening, as markets weighed the possibility of an end to the Iran conflict following the electoral setback to Republicans in the midterm elections and US President Donald Trump's acknowledgement that the war was a key factor in his party's loss.The Indian crude basket, which averaged $119.9 a barrel in Oct - its highest level since March 2012 - fell to $103.8 on Tuesday, its lowest in two months, amid hopes of a resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Iran's exemption of commercial ships from four countries, including India and China, from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz has also raised hopes among Indian refiners of improved availability of West Asian crude, their preferred grade, and a further easing of prices.Brent has surged about 70% this year as the war disrupted supplies from the Persian Gulf and prices have remained volatile, with the US and Iran threatening each other. Although the post-poll price softening will offer no relief to consumers, it does offer some relief to oil marketing companies, which are incurring losses on every litre of petrol and diesel sold. Although most have reported strong profit growth during the Sept quarter due to lower prices in the three months, they have cautioned that they may have to bear the brunt of higher prices in the current quarter.

A sustained softening will offer some respite to them and individuals as higher energy costs have put pressure on production costs, fuel bill and cooking gas prices.ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar said a sustained decline in global crude prices would help contain the need for oil marketing companies to raise retail prices of petrol and diesel, thereby limiting another round of inflationary pressures in the economy. "ICRA expects CPI inflation to average 5.2% in FY2027," Nayar said.