SA likely to increase wheat imports after harvest hits eight-year low

On 29 September 2026, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee released its second 2026-27 winter crop production estimates. The headlines reported that South Africa’s 2026-27 winter crop is estimated at 2.67 million tons, up 2% year on year. This figure comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines.

But if we set aside all other crops, which are up notably from the 2025-26 season because of increased area planted, the picture for wheat is worrying. South Africa’s 2026-27 winter wheat harvest is estimated at 1.81 million tons, down 5% year on year. This is the lowest harvest in eight years.

The decline in area planted, combined with the prospect of poor yields due to dryness in parts of the Western Cape over the past few months, is a major factor behind the expected lower harvest.

Consequently, South Africa is likely to increase wheat imports to about 2.0 million tons in the 2026-27 marketing year, which begins this month, October 2026, and runs through September 2027, up from 1.9 million tons in the 2025-26 marketing year.

Indeed, these domestic wheat production figures may still change as the season continues and the weather conditions change. After all, we are still in the second round of production estimates, and eight more estimates are to follow.

Still, based on what we have observed on the ground and insights from farmers, we are more convinced that the 2026-27 season will remain challenging for wheat, and South Africa’s import requirements will rise as the country needs to supplement domestic wheat needs.

But wheat imports are not new. South Africa is generally a net importer of wheat. In brief, South Africa began importing more than a million tons from the 2003-04 marketing year.

Before that, wheat imports averaged 458,518 tons between 1989-90 and 2002-03. The import surge from 2003-04 resulted from increased consumption and a decline in domestic area plantings.

From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained, among other things, by the profitability challenges farmers have faced since then, particularly in the Free State, amid non-conducive climatic conditions and deeper integration into global wheat markets. Before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and commodity boards played a major role in setting prices, including for wheat.

This provided some cushion for the wheat industry and other commodities.

Farmers compete in the global market

Thus, after deregulation, South African farmers had to compete in the global market. As a result, Free State production areas came under financial strain, leading farmers to switch from wheat to other profitable crops.

Of course, not all farmers came under strain; in fact, on average, the South African farming sector has thrived since the deregulation of the agricultural markets. Today, the agricultural sector is more than double what it was in 1994, and we have access to a range of export markets. In 2015, South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a record $15.1-billion (up 10% year-on-year). This year, the export activity has continued on a solid footing.

Back to the wheat matter. Other provinces of South Africa don’t have large areas with climatic conditions conducive to high-quality wheat milling for human consumption. Hence, we speak of a few major wheat-producing provinces: the Western Cape, accounting for two-thirds of plantings as a winter rainfall area, and, mainly under irrigation, the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and North West.

A significant development in South Africa’s wheat farming has been improved productivity. In 1997-98, the country’s wheat yields were below 2.0 tons per hectare. Yields were 3.8 tons per hectare in the 2024-25 production season. In the current 2026-27 season, the yields are slightly poorer because of the harsh climatic conditions, at 3.7 tons per hectare.

In essence, one must view the evolution of the wheat industry historically to understand why South Africa is a net importer of wheat, yet a net exporter of many agricultural products.

Wheat import outlook looks good

In the 2026-27 season, South Africa clearly faces various challenges in domestic wheat production, including drier weather conditions and higher input costs.

Fortunately, imports won’t be a challenge. Global wheat supplies remain broadly solid. For example, in September 2026, the International Grains Council placed the 2026-27 global wheat production forecast at 820 million tons.

Looking at this figure year-on-year may be worrying, signalling a 3% drop from the 2025-26 season. But over the long term, a harvest of 820 million tons is well above the long-term level of about 790 million tons.

The only near-term challenge, and the major driver of price increases, is disruption to shipping infrastructure in Ukraine because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Therefore, this supply availability suggests that if logistics disruptions ease in the coming months, the global wheat market may see some relief from recent price surges driven by uncertainty, not supply constraints per se. In such an environment importing countries such as South Africa would stand to benefit. DM