Saudi Arabia facing Iranian proxies alone as US opts out of strikes - analysis

Targeted by Iraqi militias and pressured by Houthi advances, Riyadh must restore deterrence on two fronts as critical infrastructure comes under renewed threat from Iranian proxies.

On September 11, an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq carried out an attack on a key Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline. This came as the Houthis also advanced toward Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia has now faced a potential two-front conflict over the last ten days.

Now Saudi Arabia has sent officials to the UN General Assembly. Riyadh has also been wondering whether it will get military support from the US.

What is happening is that the US has advanced a sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia. However, if the sale proceeds, the 5th-generation warplanes won’t arrive in Saudi Arabia for years. Riyadh needs to decide what to do now.

The Houthis have continued their threats over the last week. They have been fortifying the positions they captured near Bab al-Mandeb; they are pushing propaganda against Saudi Arabia and launching attacks on the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia. They have even threatened Mecca. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s allies, Pakistan and Turkey, do not appear to be stepping up.

The Kingdom is wary of going it alone. Arab News noted on September 19 that “Yemeni government forces clashed with Houthi fighters on several fronts in Marib on Saturday, advancing on Al-Mashjah front west of the city and forcing the Houthis to retreat, military sources said.”

Saudi Arabia left alone in its time of need

The sources added that the Armed Forces destroyed several Houthi vehicles during the fighting, according to an Al Arabiya report.

Meanwhile, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arrived in New York on Saturday to lead the Kingdom’s delegation at the 81st session of the UN General Assembly, Arab News noted.

“The delegation includes Saudi Ambassador to the US Princess Reema bint Bandar, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir, and King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Center Supervisor General Dr. Abdullah Al-Rabeeah, along with other officials.”

Saudi Arabia also said it had postponed its Red Sea International Film Festival to 2027. The New Arab media outlet noted that “Saudi Arabia has spent decades building its security partnership with Washington, buying billions of dollars in US weapons and cultivating close ties with successive American administrations.”

It argued that “when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made a direct plea to US President Donald Trump for military help against Yemen's Houthis, Washington ultimately stepped away. For two weeks, Trump had wrestled with whether to order US strikes on Houthi targets as the Iran-backed group intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia and made territorial gains in Yemen.”

The report, along with others, noted that the US has stepped back from strikes on the Houthis. This is important. Riyadh wants commitment. It has been fighting since 2015 in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has faced this dilemma before. In 2019, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq energy facility on the coast.

This is similar to the September 11 attack on the East-West pipeline. The message was clear both times. If Saudi Arabia responds, the attacks on strategic infrastructure will continue. Riyadh has more to lose than Iran, the Houthis, or militias in Iraq. Saudi Arabia and US Central Command retaliated in July for militia attacks from Iraq. The attacks stopped for several weeks.

This big question for Riyadh at the UNGA is whether it can rally support and also work with Washington regarding the next steps in Yemen. The Houthis believe they are winning. Saudi Arabia will have to see how it can avoid a two-front conflict and also restore deterrence.