What's wrong with Bo Nix? Looking at the Broncos QB's struggles

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  Jeff LegwoldOct 23, 2026, 06:00 AM ET

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  Jeff Legwold covers the Denver Broncos at ESPN. He has covered the Broncos for more than 20 years and also assists with NFL draft coverage, joining ESPN in 2013. He has been a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Board of Selectors since 1999, too. Jeff previously covered the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans at previous stops prior to ESPN.

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos' offense haven't just taken a step backward this season. They're full-tilt headed in the wrong direction, even as the defense has lifted the team to a 4-2 start. Name the quarterback metric, and Nix is near or at the bottom through the first third of the season.

As one long-time NFL quarterbacks coach and playcaller put it recently: "It's just hard to watch and hard for them to find something [Nix] or Sean [Payton] can even dial up just to get their balance. ... I don't think anybody saw that coming."

After discussions with more than a dozen sources around the league, there's a wide range of theories about what's going on with Nix. Some think he could be feeling the aftereffects of two offseason ankle surgeries. Others wonder if defensive coaches are improving at slowing Payton's passing scheme. There are also concerns about Nix's footwork. Or he might simply be feeling the pressure that comes with pursuing a life-altering, nine-digit contract.

It's all part of the equation as the Broncos approach both short- and long-term questions around their QB. Can they get Nix and the offense on track as they head into Sunday's game at the Arizona Cardinals (4:05 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, CBS)? And is Nix really the guy -- as Payton has repeatedly stated ever since Nix was selected in the first round of the 2024 draft -- or could Denver be forced to consider a change after the season?

"I guess sometimes, they can say whatever they want, and unfortunately, I can't say whatever I want back,'' Nix has said of all of the critiques he has received. "That's just the nature of the beast, part of this gig.''

What has gone wrong?

"Bo-lieve" shirts were spotted throughout the Rocky Mountain region last year, as Nix was hailed the comeback king and the next franchise quarterback to follow in the footsteps of Hall of Famers John Elway and Peyton Manning. But that chatter has given way to almost nonstop talk about whether Nix is worth the market rate for starting quarterbacks.

The Broncos are 28-12 in regular-season games he has started, including 4-2 this year after facing the most rugged season-opening slate in the league. But the numbers tell a different story. In 2026, Nix is 30th among the league's qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation (minus-4.0%, per NFL Next Gen Stats), 31st in QBR (38.2) and 32nd in yards per attempt (5.6). Of 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, he ranks 36th in success rate (36.1%), just ahead of Tampa Bay Buccaneers undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels.

Nix is also 32nd in air yards per attempt this season (5.4). That is tied for the second lowest for any quarterback since 2000, per ESPN Research. The frequent completions at or behind the line of scrimmage were flagged during the predraft process by some teams, as Nix's final two seasons at Oregon were filled with such passes. Payton said these throws were not a concern, but Denver is tied for the third-fewest explosive plays (20) and ranks second in three-and-out rate (31.8%) this season.

Perhaps the most troubling part of Nix's slow start is that he is one of the least-pressured quarterbacks in the league (31.2% of his dropbacks, less than all but four qualified quarterbacks). Still, Nix has had two of the three lowest single-game passing yardage totals of his career over the past two weeks.

"I've looked at my preparation, I've looked at my process, and I've tried to see anything that can be moved around, be changed so that I can overcome and just figure out ways to put us in the right spot,'' Nix said. "... I've seen what it is like to be very concise, be very crisp on a competitive Sunday, so just working to get back to that."

Nix has vigorously denied that he isn't healthy and fully recovered from his two offseason ankle surgeries, or that he isn't the same player he was in his first two seasons. When asked earlier this season if his surgeries and recovery, which took almost the entire offseason, had affected his mobility or willingness to run, Nix paused and simply said, "No."

But Nix has run less this season, and the runs have had much less impact. Nix has 22 carries for 37 rushing yards (1.7 per carry) through six games with no carries of 10 yards or more. Through six games last season, he had 124 rushing yards on 33 carries (3.8 per carry), with five carries of 10 or more yards. And in his 2024 rookie year, he had 180 rushing yards on 37 carries (4.9 per carry) in the first six games, with seven carries of 10 or more yards.

Nix reaffirmed Wednesday that he is "not scared" and "not physically worried" about his ankle when he runs. But he conceded that "it takes a while for things to fully reengage" and the recovery process from the second surgery -- which he said was six months ago -- is still ongoing.

"I'm confident in myself, I know I'm going to get back and be exactly what I was, if not better," Nix said. "... My training is going like this [hand moves up] ... I feel as good as I've felt. Actually, I just spoke to our strength coach, and I'm hitting better speeds than I have since being here."

But so far, the sputtering Broncos offense is 26th in rushing, 27th in passing and 31st in third-down conversions. Ryan Fitzpatrick, an NFL quarterback for 17 seasons and now an analyst on Amazon's Thursday night broadcasts, labelled Nix's work against the Seattle Seahawks last Thursday as "garbage."

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Stephen A. sounds off on Bo Nix for 'not competing'

Nix has taken a more philosophical approach to the mounting criticism.

"Playing good, playing bad ... it's a narrative," Nix said. "I think it's honestly something we make up. I don't necessarily think I'm playing any different than I normally play, it's just every once in a while, a ball will bounce this way or something will happen this way ... next thing you know, the stat line is different, and we're talking about something completely different.

"I'm confident in my preparation. I'm confident in my coaching, confident in our offense, the way we're going to structure the game. I know we're going to have things there."

Should the blame be spread around?

Payton reiterated Monday that he has no intention of benching Nix, that it's "our jobs as coaches" to remind the quarterback of the team's confidence in his abilities. The Broncos are 15-2 in one-score games with Nix behind center since the start of the 2025 season. They've made two playoff trips in his two seasons, and Broncos players believe they would have played in Super Bowl LX in February had Nix not missed the AFC Championship Game after fracturing his right ankle in the divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills.

For his part, Payton has boiled things down to the simplest conclusion: Denver's offensive struggles aren't just on Nix; everyone has played a part. The coach pointed the finger at himself, especially in the two games since he reassumed playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb.

"I've got to be better relative to the course of the game," Payton said on Wednesday. "... [Nix's] play will be a by-product of all of us doing our jobs better."

When asked for specifics, Payton added, "Relative to third down, finding throws where you guys look at receivers that are more open than maybe you've seen. Play design."

A few good weeks could erase at least some of this discussion. Broncos players point to their 4-2 record, and Nix has mentioned the stout early-season schedule. The Broncos' first six games featured three teams ranked among the league's top four in scoring defense -- Kansas City, Jacksonville and San Francisco. By contrast, three of the Broncos' next four opponents -- Arizona, Carolina and Las Vegas -- are ranked 21st or lower.

"Making it simple, making things 1-2-3, and let's play fast and let's roll," Nix said of his immediate concerns. "I think sometimes I can have a tendency of overanalyzing it and overthinking things, and that's when I'm not at my best. I want to have all the answers and get everything right. And it's too difficult. ... But I do think I can make the game simpler and just get back to 1-2, check down, that sort of thing and making sure my reads are good."

Some evaluators believe Nix is moving too quickly through his reads -- something Payton and Nix have mentioned in the past. They believe Nix slightly dialing down that processing speed would be a big step toward better production from him and the Broncos receivers.

"I think any time you're in that situation, you're looking at everything," an NFC general manager said. "You're looking at the structure of everything, what's getting called, how the group executes around the quarterback and what the quarterback does with his opportunities. To me, the clean pockets are a concern; he's in a hurry to get out or go to the checkdown way too often.

"And then, I don't always see people playing great around him. Where are people breaking tackles? Where are the go-to plays in the game plan to settle him down?"

Nix's teammates, especially on offense, have publicly stated that Nix is taking too much heat for the criticism of the Broncos' offense.

"He gets a lot of flak for just being the starting quarterback, and we all have certain things that come with our job description," wide receiver Courtland Sutton said. "He has a lot of weight on his shoulders. ... I think you ask all the guys in that locker room, offense guys, special teams, everyone has his back. We all know that for us to have success, we need [No.] 10 to be able to have that success."

How will this season influence Nix's future with Broncos -- and at what price?

There are 11 games left before the playoffs begin, but the bigger picture looms large for the Broncos. The team enthusiastically kept the status quo this offseason -- 20 of 22 starters on offense and defense from the AFC Championship Game were on the training camp roster -- because the organization believed that Nix would continue to progress.

His rookie contract has enabled Denver to spend resources elsewhere, making a series of major contract extensions since 2024 that combined for more than $350 million guaranteed at signing. But the Broncos have a long list of free agents next offseason, including cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian, safety Brandon Jones, guard Ben Powers and wide receiver/kick returner Marvin Mims Jr. So the plan for Nix will matter.

Sources in and around the team say if his play doesn't improve dramatically, the most likely scenario would be the Broncos exercising the contract's fifth-year option next spring, then taking a wait-and-see approach into the 2027 season, much as the Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers have done this year with C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, respectively.

The idea of adding additional quarterback depth in the offseason would be broached in this scenario. Mel Kiper Jr.'s early Big Board for the 2027 NFL draft class includes seven passers in the top 25. It's unclear when or if the Broncos would consider a long look at the top of the quarterback board, given those sorts of meetings between Payton, general manager George Paton and owner/CEO Greg Penner are months away.

On the flip side, if Nix and the offense rebound significantly, and the Broncos solidify themselves as Super Bowl contenders, then signing Nix to a long-term deal would get far more consideration. Before the season, Penner said: "Obviously, we want Bo here long term, but ... I'll leave that to George [Paton] and Sean [Payton]; [they] will have conversations about it, but I'll leave that up to them to lead."

Thirteen quarterbacks currently have contracts that average at least $50 million per year. Nix's current deal averages $4.653 million per year, with a cap hit of $5.084 million in 2027. The fifth-year option for a player with Nix's playtime and fewer than two Pro Bowl selections would receive the average of the third- through 20th-highest-paid players at his position -- which is just over $25 million this season. That means that the Broncos have one more season when Nix is on a middle-of-the-first-round rookie salary.

For his part, Nix said he needs to concentrate on his job each day, tune out what he calls "the noise" and play better.

"I couldn't tell you one [critic] that has said anything," Nix said. "I just know it's their job, their opinion, what they get paid to do, just like I get paid to do this. I'm really only focused about what [offensive coordinator] Davis [Webb] and [quarterbacks coach] Logan [Kilgore] are teaching me, how Coach is calling the plays, how can I improve and make Coach's job easier.