Your guide to the WNBA semifinals: Keys to Aces-Valkyries and Liberty-Dream

• Michael Voepel

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  Michael Voepel

  ESPN Senior Writer

  Michael Voepel is a senior writer who covers the WNBA, women's college basketball and other college sports. Voepel began covering women's basketball in 1984, and has been with ESPN since 1996.
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• Kareem Copeland

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• Kendra Andrews

Oct 3, 2026, 12:30 PM ET

When the WNBA semifinals open Sunday, the matchups are a study in contrasts. They include one of the league's original teams, the New York Liberty, and one of its youngest franchises, the Golden State Valkyries, who are in their second season.

The Las Vegas Aces have won three of the past four championships and are making their eighth consecutive semifinal appearance. The Atlanta Dream have been swept in all three of their WNBA Finals trips and haven't made the semifinals since 2018.

Two already established all-time greats -- Las Vegas' A'ja Wilson and New York's Breanna Stewart -- each have three WNBA titles. Golden State and Atlanta don't have a Mount Rushmore-like legend, but they are the higher seeds and have home-court advantage in these best-of-five series.

The Dream host the Liberty in Game 1 on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, ABC), followed by the Aces visiting the Valkyries (4 p.m. ET). ESPN's Kendra Andrews, Kareem Copeland, Alexa Philipppou and Michael Voepel break down the semifinals.

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Golden State-Las Vegas | Atlanta-New York

(2) Golden State Valkyries vs. (3) Las Vegas Aces

Regular-season series: Las Vegas went 3-0 against Golden State

May 31: Aces 91, Valkyries 81 (at Las Vegas)
June 6: Aces 84, Valkyries 79 (at Golden State)
June 21: Aces 92, Valkyries 73 (at Golden State)

BPI: Golden State has a 64.9% chance of advancing to the WNBA Finals, 41.7% chance of winning the WNBA title; Las Vegas has a 35.1% chance to reach the Finals, 18.3% to win the championship.

First-round recap

Both teams went the full three games in the opening round with thrilling Game 3 victories. A'ja Wilson was the most dominant individual player on any team in the first round and will be the favorite to win a third Finals MVP if the Aces advance. The trio of Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray averaged a combined 71 points, 15.7 assists and 19.7 rebounds.

The Valkyries held the Wings to 76.5 points per game in their two first-round victories as they continue to be a defense-first unit in which the sum of the parts is greater than any individual. However, it was Gabby Williams to the rescue in Game 3 as she averaged 25 points, 4.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 steals in Round 1. -- Copeland

How they match up

It's a classic offense-versus-defense matchup. The Aces finished the regular season as the No. 2 offense in the league, and the Valkyries have consistently been the No. 1 defense. It's a superstar-heavy roster in Las Vegas versus a collection with just four combined all-star appearances in The Bay. The league's latest dynasty with three championships in four years versus an organization in just its second year of existence. A Hall of Famer in Becky Hammon, who has been at the helm of all those titles, versus the protege in Natalie Nakase, who was an assistant in Vegas from 2022 to '24 (including two of those title runs). If anyone knows the weaknesses of the defending champs, it's Nakase. Wilson will have an interesting matchup at center against former teammate Kiah Stokes, who was on every one of those Vegas championship teams. -- Copeland

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A'ja Wilson drops 36 points to lead the Aces past the Fever

What will most impact the series

The home-court advantage could help the Valkyries, who were swept by the Aces during the regular season. If beating the Aces in one game is hard, beating them in a series is even harder. New York is the only team to do it in the past four seasons; in 2024, the Liberty beat the Aces in the semifinals and then won the championship.

But Golden State had the best home record in the WNBA, going 17-5 at Ballhalla. The impact of the full house at Chase Center clearly has lifted the Valkyries more than once this season, including in Game 3 of the first round Friday.

Las Vegas was a little more vulnerable at home this season, going 15-7. Matchup-wise on paper, the Aces have the advantage. But getting to start off at home and potentially host a Game 5 is one thing that's in the Valkyries' favor. -- Voepel

Golden State will win if: The Valkyries can slow down the Aces' big three. Trying to contain Wilson is a difficult task in itself, but what makes the Aces so dangerous is they have several other players who can also take over games. Young is averaging 23.2 points this postseason, while Chelsea Gray is scoring 15.6 points per game. Wilson leads all scorers in the playoffs with 32 per game. It's well established how much Golden State feeds off of its defense -- not only does it shut down opponents, but it fuels the offense. For the Valkyries to win the series, they need to limit the Aces' multiple scoring threats and have it ignite some scoring for themselves as well. -- Andrews

Las Vegas will win if: The Aces' big three continue to lead the way. Hammon unintentionally summed up her situation after Thursday's Game 3 victory over the Indiana Fever. In the elimination game, with the season on the line, she was prepared to play Wilson, Young and Gray all 40 minutes. Young and Gray did and Wilson likely would have if not for some foul trouble. Jewell Loyd stepped into the starting lineup with Stephanie Talbot out with a left leg injury, and the three-time champion and former scoring champ played 35 minutes as Hammon cut her rotation to just seven players. Not to discount the supporting cast, but when it's winning time, the Aces turn to the trio that has 10 championships between them. Wilson, the presumptive MVP, averaged 32 points, 11.7 rebounds and two blocks in the first round and was nearly unstoppable. The Valkyries might be the best defensive team in the league, but can they keep up with the No. 2 offense that just knocked off the No. 1 offense in WNBA history? -- Copeland

Who will win the series

Kendra Andrews: Aces in 4

Kareem Copeland: Aces in 4

Alexa Philippou: Aces in 4

Andre Snellings: Aces in 4

Michael Voepel: Aces in 4

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Valkyries say Nakase OK after collapsing late in Game 3 win

(4) Atlanta Dream vs. (8) New York Liberty

Regular-season series: Atlanta went 2-1 against New York

June 11: Liberty 104, Dream 90 (at Atlanta)
Sept. 21: Dream 95, Liberty 84 (at New York)
Sept. 23: Dream 83, Liberty 65 (at New York)

BPI: Atlanta has a 63.1% chance of advancing to the WNBA Finals, 27.8% chance of winning the WNBA title; New York has a 36.9% chance to reach the Finals, 12.2% to win the championship.

First-round recap

The Liberty and Dream both swept their first-round opponents: New York knocked off the Lynx, completing the first sweep of a No. 1 seed in its opening series, and did so in convincing fashion: Each game was decided by 16 points, and Minnesota only led for three minutes, 23 seconds in the entire series. Breanna Stewart is the Liberty's top scorer so far the playoffs with 27.5 points per game.

Atlanta took care of business against the No. 5 seed Mystics, beating them by 15 and 18 points to secure its first semifinal appearance since 2018. Guard duo Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard are averaging a combined 42.5 points per game for Atlanta this postseason. -- Philippou

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Dream defeat Mystics to advance to first semifinals since 2018

How they match up

The Dream have had a stronger season, without as many ups and downs as the Liberty. Atlanta has won seven in a row and 11 of its past 12, which included back-to-back wins at New York to close the regular season. The teams' home records were similar, with Atlanta going 15-7 and New York 14-8. But the Dream have a bigger edge on the road, where they were also 15-7 compared to the Liberty's 12-10.

New York has the most decorated player in this series in two-time MVP Breanna Stewart, plus another MVP in Jonquel Jones. However, Gray and Jordin Canada are two of the quickest players in the league, and Atlanta's speed isn't just on the perimeter. Forwards Angel Reese and Naz Hillmon are swift as well, which makes defending the Dream a challenge for any team. -- Voepel

What will most impact the series

The Liberty have a core of four players -- Stewart, Jones, Sabrina Ionescu and Leonie Fiebich -- who have been through the highs of winning a championship together and the lows of falling short of one. The Dream, meanwhile, have a younger core and have never been on this stage before as a group. (They aren't entirely devoid of championship experience, as Canada and DeWanna Bonner have two titles apiece from earlier in their careers.) Experience isn't always the deciding factor in the postseason, but it can lead to composure and trust in high-stakes situations. -- Philippou

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Liberty complete sweep, eliminate 1-seed Lynx

Atlanta will win if: The Dream's offense dictates the series. This is not to say the Dream's defense is any slouch; far from it. Reese won the Defensive Player of the Year award, and Atlanta was second to Golden State in defensive rating (estimation of points allowed per 100 possessions) at 104.5. But part of what makes that defense so good is how the Dream can run teams ragged with their offense. The Dream (112.9) and the Liberty (112.7) were fifth and sixth in offensive rating. If Atlanta establishes an offensive edge, New York might have trouble keeping up. -- Voepel

New York will win if: Stewart continues to play at this level. Stewart has been playing with an impressive level of focus and determination over the past month or so, including at the FIBA World Cup, setting the tone for the Liberty not just with her production but also her emotional leadership. She almost willed the Liberty to the semifinals last year on a bum knee; now healthy, she might have some more heroics left in her. -- Philippou