ANALYSIS: If Zuma’s MK is knocking on KZN’s door, will eThekwini open it?

Jacob Zuma’s MK party may be riven by internal turmoil and dogged by financial woes, but could it be on the brink of taking control of KwaZulu-Natal?

The party’s opponents predictably refute this, but MK, with 37 seats in the 80-member KZN legislature, is just shy of control thanks to a lesser-known politician named Ivan Barnes.

Thanks to a high court judgment this week, MK could be a smidgen closer, even though its enemies are determined that Zuma’s party will not lay its hands on the province’s R150-billion budget.

The court judgment comes on the heels of an Ipsos poll that puts MK support in Durban as high as 55%, meaning the party could also soon wrest control of the municipality (and its R70-billion budget).

MK’s bid for the provincial prize was bolstered by the ruling this week by high court judge Sidwell Mngadi.

The case relates to KZN kingmaker, the National Freedom Party.

NFP leadership wrangling over its solitary representative in the legislature has seen party leaders clash in a series of court cases.

After the May 2024 national elections, MK dominated in KZN with its 37 seats, but was kept out of power by a coalition of the Inkatha Freedom Party, African National Congress, Democratic Alliance and the NFP.

The NFP’s support gave the coalition 41 seats in the legislature vs the MK’s 37, plus the EFF’s promised support of its two seats.

Court challenges

As a reward for her support, the NFP’s sole MPL, Mbali Shinga, was appointed KZN social welfare MEC, but NFP strife has since led to various court challenges by NFP president Barnes to oust her.

Shinga’s lawyers have won most skirmishes and in June secured an interdict stopping her expulsion, pending an appeal against the NFP disciplinary action against her.

The party acted against her because she defied NPF orders to support an MK-sponsored vote of no confidence in KZN premier Thami Ntuli.

But this week Barnes, an MK ally, emerged victorious when Judge Mngadi ordered Shinga to vacate her legislature seat.

Opinion is divided, but this might prove a hollow victory.

Even if the MK, EFF and NFP (soon to be represented by Barnes) launched another vote of no confidence against the Ntuli and coalition-led provincial government, it would be a stalemate with their combined 40 votes against the IFP, ANC and DA’s 40.

Shinga’s lawyer, Sthembiso Mbhele, said he was appealing against Judge Mngandi's ruling. Papers would be filed today, which would mean the court order has no legal effect and she would remain an MEC until the appeal is heard.

The NFP isn’t buying this. 

‘Shinga out, Barnes in’

NFP administrator Romeo Dladla told Maverick: “Ms Shinga is out, and Mr Barnes is in.”

He forwarded Daily Maverick correspondence from the KZN legislature confirming that Barnes could be sworn in next week.

With Barnes acting with MK and the EFF, the legislature could be paralysed and unable to pass legislation in a stalemate, but whether that happens remains to be seen, as parties have different interpretations of the Speaker’s role in a hung legislature.

The IFP, ANC and DA would continue to run the provincial cabinet, and though hamstrung, it would stay in place, cabinet members told Daily Maverick.

“The government would limp along; it’s not ideal,” one said.

Tricky choice

Premier Ntuli would also have a tricky decision to make about who becomes social welfare MEC.

The IFP has four cabinet members, the ANC three and the DA two, in proportion to the support each party garnered in 2024.

Some speculate that the tenuous coalition government might need to woo the EFF and offer it a cabinet seat to thwart cooperation with MK.

But this is unlikely given the DA and EFF’s sworn enmity.

What happens in the provincial corridors of power will have to mirror coalition arrangements in municipalities, most importantly in eThekwini, which will have 224 councillors after the elections.

IFP/ANC/DA coalition partners are wary of the Ipsos poll, but are also prepared for an upset like in the 2024 elections that saw the MK’s powerful turnout.

An MK win of above 50% in Durban is not impossible, according to analyst Wayne Sussman.

Much power will rest with minorities.

Candidate lists

On Wednesday, 16 September 2026, the IEC announced its candidate nomination lists.

A total of 69 parties and scores of independent candidates will contest the November local government elections in eThekwini.

If the NFP experience is anything to go by, the smaller parties will prove kingmakers and disruptors.

Sussman predicts a strong showing from MK, based on its 2024 performance. “There is a strong chance MK will sweep eThekwini despite its financial and organisational challenges. It was a tsunami; in wards where the ANC won between 60% and 80% in 2021, MK smashed them down to 13% and 16%. It decimated the ANC in 2024, and the ANC hasn’t recovered. Let’s assume MK gets north of 100 seats, but just short of a majority; it will easily woo smaller parties over. eThekwini has 15 parties with one seat each, which is much higher than other metros. These parties might see that they get more out of MK because it is less clear what MK stands for. MK needs 50 plus one to run eThekwini: 113 seats. You will want a strong, stable coalition, so their first discussion will be with the EFF.

MK ‘not ready to govern’

“MK’s biggest enemy is itself. If Zuma can grab the party by the scruff of the neck and raise enough money, it can sweep the board, or it will have to form messy coalitions. Either way, MK will win.”

But the big question is: if MK is victorious as is predicted, what will it do?

That’s the only thing MK members and ANC/DA/IFP opponents seem to agree on: MK is wholly unprepared to govern.

An MK insider spoke to Daily Maverick this week en route to a party-aligned meeting of professionals in KZN.

“If we could have a secret ballot in the legislature, at least three or four ANC members would definitely vote with MK, which is why the ANC opposed a secret ballot so vigorously before.

“The biggest question is, are we ready to govern? This is a very worrying factor. There has not been much emphasis on readiness to govern.”

Party volatility spurred insecurity, suspicion and infighting.

“People are too afraid to speak out. It is disturbing. We have tried to, but there isn’t much space for that. Our advantage is that the ANC is so bad.” DM