UK poll tracker: Labour lead over Reform widens as Burnham sees best result in two years

Amid rumours of an early election, Andy Burnham’s Labour continues to hold a lead over Reform in the polls as the party sees its highest ratings since its landslide election victory in 2024.

Labour has taken a five-point lead according to the latest polling by YouGov, marking the highest level of popularity since early 2025. It is three points higher than the pollster previously had the government, coming after Mr Burnham’s emotional Labour Party conference speech.

It widens the gap with Reform, which is still in second place according to most pollsters. Despite the party’s gains in the devolved and local elections this May, it has since become bogged down in controversies over donations.

Mr Farage has also faced competition on its right from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, losing its lead in voting intention on average since Mr Burnham took office.

Polling would suggest that support remains volatile, however, with Reform showing a marked difference in results week-on-week.

A YouGov poll released last week put the party ahead for the first time since August, after only a week prior finding the party would come third after the Conservatives.

But there has been a considerable dip in support for the party overall, mirroring a significant fall in popularity for Mr Farage. The party leader’s latest favourability rating sits at a low of-36 this month according to one pollster – down from its peak of -27 last summer.

Recent YouGov figures also indicate that Mr Burnham may be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer.

Only 49 per cent of former Labour voters said they would support the party when the former prime minister stood down in June – a figure that has risen to 63 per cent in the latest poll.

There has also been a notable boost among 18- to 24-year-olds under Mr Burnham, with support rising from 14 per cent to 27 per cent over the same time period. In comparison, only 7 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds would vote Reform.

The Conservatives have seen a slight bump in support since Mr Burnham’s coronation, rising to an average of 20 points since June.

The Greens and Lib Dems, meanwhile, appear to be suffering following rising support for the government. Ed Davey’s party has steadily dropped a few points to 11, recent polling shows, while the Greens have seen a starker drop from 14 points in April to just 10.

The figures will come as a blow to leader Zack Polanski, who will contest Sir Keir’s former seat of Holborn and St Pancras this week as the Green Party candidate.

Labour’s rise in popularity under Mr Burnham has prompted calls for an early election which, if he won, would secure him a mandate for at least five years to deliver the bold changes he has pledged as prime minister.

The prime minister has said he wants to “knock dead” the ideas, although Kemi Badenoch and Mr Davey have both indicated they are making preparations for the possibility.

Pollsters have also warned there would be no benefit in calling an early contest for the Labour leader, with some arguing the so-called “Burnham bounce” may already have peaked.

It would also be tricky timing for Nigel Farage, who still faces the results of a parliamentary standards investigation now that he has returned to Westminster.