'US tilting toward Russia: Europeans are standing more and more solidly with Zelensky'

As transatlantic relations confront renewed geopolitical uncertainty, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves delivers a pointed assessment of Washington's shifting approach to Russia's war on Ukraine and the profound implications for European security. At the heart of his analysis lies a fundamental question: can Europe develop the political unity, strategic independence and military capabilities necessary to defend its interests in an increasingly unpredictable international order?  Ilves response: "If there's any time for Europe to begin to act as Europe and not as being strictly self-interested, then this is the time for it."

As transatlantic relations confront renewed geopolitical uncertainty, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves delivers a pointed assessment of Washington's shifting approach to Russia's war on Ukraine and the profound implications for European security. At the heart of his analysis lies a fundamental question: can Europe develop the political unity, strategic independence and military capabilities necessary to defend its interests in an increasingly unpredictable international order?  Ilves response: "If there's any time for Europe to begin to act as Europe and not as being strictly self-interested, then this is the time for it."

Ilves argues that the Trump administration's apparent rapprochement with Moscow is shaped partly by domestic electoral calculations, while Ukraine finds itself navigating an increasingly precarious diplomatic and military landscape. Yet he challenges the assumption that Washington retains overwhelming leverage over Kyiv, pointing to Europe's growing financial commitment to Ukrainian defence and the potential domestic political costs of withdrawing American intelligence support.

Beyond the immediate confrontation, Ilves identifies a more consequential challenge: the emergence of a fragmented European political landscape in which nationalist movements, competing security priorities and divergent attitudes towards Russia threaten the continent's capacity for collective action. His central contention is that European strategic autonomy is no longer an abstract institutional ambition but an urgent geopolitical necessity.

Can the European Union transcend national self-interest and emerge as a coherent strategic actor, or will they remain vulnerable to the decisions of external powers and the divisions within its own borders?