Are the Longhorns laying too many points in Knoxville?

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  Pamela MaldonadoSep 23, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

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  Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.

Texas has reached the top as the latest No. 1 ranked team in the country. Now, the Longhorns head to Rocky Top.

Texas heads to Knoxville two weeks removed from beating Ohio State, while No. 14 Tennessee enters 3-0 with its biggest test yet. Nine SEC teams remain undefeated, making every conference game feel like an early elimination round.

This one carries playoff weight and has SEC title implications, plus it's the first real answer about whether Tennessee belongs in the same tier as Texas. Only one contender will leave Knoxville validated.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

No. 1 Texas (-5.5) at No. 14 Tennessee
Saturday, NOON ET, ABC

Records: Texas 3-0, 1-0 vs. AP Top 25; Tennessee 3-0, 0-0 vs. AP Top 25
Money line: Texas (-210); Tennessee (+180)
Over/Under: 55.5 (O -112, U -108)

Tennessee wants to run. Texas has to tackle.

Let's start with what Tennessee does best: The Vols want to run the ball. They have multiple ways to do it with DeSean Bishop, Daune Morris and QB Faizon Brandon all having to be accounted for. Texas grades well against the run but the tackling hasn't been nearly as good. That could become an issue against backs who rarely go down on first contact.

Brandon has struggled under pressure, while crushing the blitz. So what does Texas do? Sending extra bodies could create the exact explosive passes Tennessee wants. Sitting back puts pressure on a pass rush that's produced plenty of hurries without many sacks.

On the flip side, Tennessee's run defense is its weakness so Texas should be able to run the ball but the playcalling needs to reflect that. Hollywood Smothers is clearly the Longhorns' best option with nearly a dozen missed tackles, so there's no reason to make Arch Manning live on unnecessary deep shots with a backfield that can keep the offense ahead of schedule.

Keep the script simple and run the ball. Let Manning work the short to intermediate areas, and only take the deep shot when the run game or play action creates it.

When Manning does throw, the matchup gets more complicated. Texas is first in pass blocking, but Tennessee is both top 12 in pressures, sacks and in coverage. Even if Manning has time, the Vols will make him work for open receivers

Ultimately, this game could be decided up front. Tennessee has the more dangerous rushing attack and pass rush, though Texas has the better overall defense, guided by defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. The game will change the moment either quarterback has to rescue his offense. If either quarterback becomes the entire offense, that team is in trouble.

Texas is better. Is it six points better in Knoxville?

I keep flipping on the spread. Texas being favored is not at all surprising since it knocked out Ohio State. The opponent-adjusted numbers support the line. Texas is fifth in adjusted EPA per play, while Tennessee drops to 63rd once its schedule is considered. The Vols' raw numbers look great, but Furman plus Kennesaw State are doing some work there.

Texas being favored by 5.5 points on the road is where the conversation starts. Manning's efficiency was much more volatile on the road last season. His protection is better this year. Still, Tennessee recreates the conditions that gave Manning problems.

This is why 5.5 feels tricky. Texas is the team I trust to win, Tennessee is a team built to make laying 5.5 on the road uncomfortable. I like Texas straight up, with no solid read on the spread as it's the Longhorns' first road game of the year.

Prediction: UNDER 55.5

Getting from one 20-yard line to the other is only half the job. Texas has allowed just three touchdowns on 10 opponent red zone trips. Tennessee has also been solid near its own goal line. That's where this game slows down.

Scoring touchdowns in the red zone was a road-trip problem for Texas last season. The Longhorns also struggled with converting third and fourth downs when away from their home field. This is where we find out how much Texas has actually fixed: The protection appears better, Manning has better pieces around him, but all of that has been at home.

Productive drives don't automatically become scores. I'll take the UNDER.