🔮 Bowl, CFP projections: The postseason picture following a wild Week 6

If Week 6 showed anything, it's to never underestimate the underdog. Only two ranked matchups were played: Georgia earned a conference road victory over Alabama, and UCLA pulled off an upset over Oregon in Eugene.

But four unranked teams defeated ranked opponents with then-No. 1 Texas falling to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game, Kentucky pulling off its second surprise over a top-25 opponent, plus South Carolina and North Carolina earning big wins.

In the wake of all that, we take a look at how the postseason picture shifted after Week 6.

New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will get automatic bids to the CFP along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top 12 teams.

The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of Seeds 5 through 8.

The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and wrap up with the CFP National Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6.

All times Eastern

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First-round games | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 18
8 p.m., ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 19
Noon, ABC/ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Alabama

Bonagura: No. 10 UCLA at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 UCLA at No. 7 Texas

Bonagura: No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Utah
Schlabach: No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 BYU

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 30

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

Friday, Jan. 1

Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6)

Quarterfinals Game 2
Noon, TNT
Bonagura: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Quarterfinals Game 3
4 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 10 UCLA vs. No. 2 Miami

Quarterfinals Game 4
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Utah vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Georgia

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 14

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Miami

Friday, Jan. 15

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia

Monday, Jan. 25

CFP National Championship
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia

Bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 12

Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: Morgan State vs. Jackson State

Tuesday, Dec. 15

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Louisiana

Frisco Football Classic
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: USF vs. San Diego State

Friday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Western Michigan

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Florida
Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Carolina

Monday, Dec. 21

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. South Alabama

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Air Force

Tuesday, Dec. 22

Puerto Rico Bowl
Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico)
1:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UMass vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Delaware

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Florida International

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Cal vs. UCF

Wednesday, Dec. 23

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Army

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
7:30 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Washington vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Oregon State

Frisco Bowl
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Memphis
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico

Thursday, Dec. 24

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: San José State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Texas State

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State

Saturday, Dec. 26

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Louisville vs. UTSA

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Duke vs. Northwestern

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Eastern Michigan

Cactus Bowl
Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Cincinnati

Monday, Dec. 28

Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Memphis

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
5 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. USC

Tuesday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. NC State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Baylor
Schlabach: SMU vs. Houston

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Oregon

Wednesday, Dec. 30

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
11:30 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. LSU

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Thursday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State

Old El Paso Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Washington

Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Arizona vs. Missouri

Kinder's Texas Bowl
Reliant Stadium (Houston)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma

Saturday, Jan. 2

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Troy
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Texas A&M

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Wyoming

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Florida