Bills-Vikings picks for Monday night, plus NFL Week 9 losers and Jaguars make trade for Pro Bowl safety

Nov 9, 2026 at 12:08 pm ET • 19 min read

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I'm writing this from the Madrid airport and I thought about doing the entire thing in Spanish, but then I realized that I don't know enough Spanish to pull that off. I mean, I just learned how to ask where the bathroom is, so it would probably take me three months to write one newsletter.

Anyway, it's been a wild 24 hours, and things aren't going to be calming down anytime soon, and that's mostly because the trade deadline is coming TOMORROW. There will be a lot going on between now and 4 p.m. ET Tuesday when the deadline hits, and we'll be tracking it all in our live blog, so be sure to check it out. 

In the meantime, though, there's plenty of chaos for us to cover today, so let's get to the rundown.

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, just click here.  

1. NFL Week 9 grades: Bengals roar in Spain, Packers destroy Patriots

Welcome to my favorite part of the Monday newsletter, where I hand out grades for all 32 teams. There was only one team that earned an 'A+' this week, and we're going to start off with them.

Packers 45-21 over Patriots

• Packers takeaway: Matt LaFleur seems to have unlocked a new level of his offense. This is what happens when everything is working for Green Bay: Jordan Love was nearly perfect (372 yards, three touchdowns), and the Packers finally remembered how to run the ball. Love was so good that both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden topped 150 receiving yards, marking the first time in Packers history that two receivers have done so in the same game since Don Hutson and Andy Uram in 1942. This is starting to look like one of the league's best duos, and the scary part is that this offense should only get better if the Packers keep running the ball well. For the first time all season, the NFL's worst rushing team topped 100 yards on the ground, with Kaleb Johnson leading the way at 68 yards. With Micah Parsons set to return before Thanksgiving and the offense playing like this, the Packers could be one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL down the stretch. Grade: A+
• Patriots takeaway: The Patriots took an absolute pounding here. Drake Maye threw an interception on his first pass of the game, and things only got worse from there. The Patriots simply didn't look prepared. They got out-coached on both sides of the ball. The biggest surprise was probably that Mike Vrabel's defense got run off the field: They couldn't tackle, they couldn't stop the NFL's worst rushing attack, and they didn't generate much of a pass rush. Christian Gonzalez got torched by both Watson and Golden, becoming the only coverage defender since at least 2018 to allow 80-plus receiving yards to two different players in the same game, per Next Gen Stats.  The biggest concern is that this team has now played five games against teams that currently have a winning record, and they've gone 1-4 in those games. The Patriots are struggling to beat anyone good, and if they don't get things figured out soon, they'll be sitting at home in January. Grade: F

Bengals 34-17 over Falcons

• Bengals takeaway: In the lead-up to Sunday's game in Spain, Joe Burrow predicted the Bengals offense would "put on a show" in Madrid, and that's exactly what happened. This team has struggled with slow starts this year, but in Madrid, the offense was red hot from the very start of the game. Ja'Marr Chase made several acrobatic catches while recording 142 yards in the first half alone (his career-high for a first half). Joe Burrow completed 16 of his first 18 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Tee Higgins also hauled in two TD passes. Burrow is now the eighth quarterback with 26+ total touchdowns through his first eight games, according to CBS Sports Research. Five of those previous seven won MVP. The most impressive part of the Bengals' performance might have been the fact that their defense basically shut down the Falcons after giving up 10 quick points in the first quarter. This was a business vacation for a Bengals team that's looking like a serious Super Bowl contender in the AFC. Grade: A
• Falcons takeaway: It's fitting that this game was played in Spain, because the Falcons' defense looked like it was taking an afternoon siesta against a Bengals offense basically built to exploit Atlanta's weaknesses. The Falcons had no pass rush, and their secondary couldn't keep up with the Bengals' athletic receivers, creating huge problems for Atlanta. To make matters worse, the Falcons offense faded as the game went on. Bijan Robinson had 52 rushing yards in the first quarter, but then only 48 for the rest of the game. Combine that with an ineffective passing game, and you get this final score. This is now two straight offensive duds by the Falcons, and it might be time for Kevin Stefanski to go back to the drawing board. Grade: C-

As for the other grades that we've handed out so far in Week 9, you can check those out here. 

2. NFL Week 9 winners and losers: Commanders need late-game coaching help

You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so here are some winners and losers. I always get sad when there's a kicker on the losers' list, and yup, you guessed it: there's a kicker on the losers' list this week. 

Carter Bahns put together this week's list of winners and losers, and we'll check out his losers below. 

LOSERS 

• Drake Maye. There is a three-man tie for the most turnovers in football, and Drake Maye joined that group after a disastrous showing in the Patriots' defeat. His 13 turnovers match those of Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert, who own the two lowest passer ratings in the NFL. His season-long tally ballooned with three interceptions against the Packers, and it hardly took any time for him to put one in the ledger - the first pick came in the game's opening minute. Maye settled in after a brutal start to the year, throwing only one interception in his last four games heading into Week 9. But he reverted back to the tendencies that made him a major disappointment in September, and the Patriots suffered because of it.
• Commanders' end-of-game decisions. The same team that botched a last-second situation against the Giants earlier in the year and turned an easy potential win into a sad tie delivered yet another head-scratcher a few weeks later. The Commanders needed a touchdown to force overtime or take the lead against the Rams and had mere seconds to obtain it when they made two questionable calls. With eight seconds to play in a 20-13 game, quarterback Jayden Daniels took a deep shot and left the ball short of the goal line. That would have been a reasonable throw if the Commanders had any timeouts at their disposal, but they were out of them at that point of the fourth quarter. A completion in that spot would have ended the game. Then, on the final play of the afternoon, Washington dialed up a hook-and-ladder play instead of a Hail Mary, which fell well short of the end zone. Rather than having Daniels chuck the ball 31 yards, they looked for something underneath that was not there. Coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator David Blough have drawn significant scrutiny, and those end-of-game decisions will not pull them out from under the microscope..
• Harrison Butker. Butker missed a field goal attempt at the end of the first half, but an offsides penalty negated the failed kick. He then missed the second try from five yards closer. Only eight games into the season, Butker has already missed more attempts this year (seven) than in any single season during his career. He has now also missed 17 field goal tries since the start of the 2025 campaign. His miscues led the Chiefs to add Justin Tucker to their practice squad last month. It may be a matter of time before the team elevates Tucker to the active roster and ends the Butker era. 

If you want to see Carter's list of winners (and a couple of other losers), be sure to click here. 

3. Overreactions from Week 9: Should Shedeur Sanders keep the Browns' QB job? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL. Zach Pereles looked at several things that happened during Week 9, so decide for yourself whether we're all overreacting.  

Statement: The Browns should stick with Shedeur Sanders as their starting QB.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The 23-22 loss to the Saints will leave a bad taste in the mouth after what was otherwise a solid performance, especially given the circumstances. Cleveland's offensive line was abysmal, as it has been much of the year, and the run game didn't help at all. There were also multiple drops. But Sanders delivered several things Deshaun Watson simply doesn't. How about three completions on 30-plus-yard throws downfield? Watson has one ... all year! Sanders also did excellently in several moments navigating the pressure. Coaches rarely bench players due to injury, so I wouldn't be surprised if Watson returns to the lineup. Todd Monken refused to talk about it postgame. But in this writer's eyes, Sanders should keep the job.

Statement: Matthew Stafford is holding back the Rams.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The Rams are above .500 for the first time this year after outlasting the Commanders, 20-13. The Rams force-fed Puka Nacua (19 targets for 14 catches, 150 yards and a touchdown) and got just enough for the run game. Myles Garrett came back in full force with three sacks and a forced fumble. At 5-4 and winners of three straight -- with the Cardinals up next -- Los Angeles should feel OK. But Matthew Stafford just does not look good. Plain and simple. He threw an awful interception after locking in on Nacua, with no chance of completion. Stafford missed a ton of throws he made routinely during his 2025 MVP campaign. Sunday alone, he missed an open Tyler Higbee on an out-breaking route; he missed Tutu Atwell twice -- once wide, once high -- and missed Nacua once, too, this time low. The Rams can still be a good team, but at some point, they will need Stafford to play like his 2025 self, and it just doesn't look like he has that anymore.

Statement: The NFC East race is over. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. The Giants' win puts them at 5-2-1 on the season, a truly remarkable start. J.J. McCarthy wasn't good, but he didn't have any huge mistakes. That's enough against a team like the Eagles. The Cowboys avoided a DEFCON 1-level loss, surviving a mistake-riddled game to beat the Colts 27-23. Dallas lost a pair of fumbles in awful moments, committed several terrible penalties, and seemed to spend half the game trying to give it away. But they won and now sit at 4-5. Yes, that's 2.5 games back of New York, but it's not impossible. I don't think the Cowboys are very good, but they might not need to be very good to win this division. A Week 17 showdown between the two teams still looms large, even if Dallas underwhelmed very much (again) in Week 9.

There are plenty more overreactions, and you can check them out here.

4. 10 crazy stats from Week 9: Patriots implode at home

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some crazy stats about the games that were just played. 

With that in mind, here are 10 crazy stats from Week 9: 

1. Patriots ruin Rob Gronkowski's weekend. Not only did the Patriots lose to the Packers on Sunday, but they gave up 45 points. That's the most that team has ever surrendered in the history of Gillette Stadium and the most they've given up in a home game since 1970. The loss came on the same weekend that Rob Gronkowski was inducted into the team's Hall of Fame, so the Pats did a good job of ruining that. 
2. Packers WR duo makes history. Christian Watson (171 yards) and Matthew Golden (164) became the first pair of Packers' receivers in franchise history to each top 150 receiving yards with at least one receiving TD in the same game. This has happened once before for Green Bay -- back in 1942 -- but a running back was involved. This franchise has had a storied list of quarterbacks throwing the ball, so you'd think there would have been at least one game where two receiver put up these numbers, but until Sunday, no receiving duo had ever pulled off the feat. 
3. Joe Burrow making an MVP case. With four total touchdowns against the Falcons (three passing, one rush), Burrow became the first player in NFL history to complete at least 70% of his passes with four total touchdowns in four straight games. Burrow completed 82.3% of his passes while throwing for 271 yards in Cincinnati's 34-17 win. Burrow has done this despite the Bengals not having a single run of 20 yards or more this season. The Bengals are the second team in NFL history to start with a record of 6-2 or better through eight games without a 20-yard run, joining the 2003 Colts. Peyton Manning won MVP that year. 
4. Saints pull off rare feat. The Saints did not score a single touchdown through the first 59 minutes in their win over the Browns, but they ended up scoring TWO in the game. That's just the second time in NFL history a team has pulled that off. The only other time came last year with the Bears. 
5. Puka party. Puka Nacua had 14 catches for 150 yards and now has 70 receptions on the season, which is the most in NFL history through a player's first seven games (Nacua missed two games due to injury). Despite missing those two games, Nacua still ranks third in the NFL in receptions this year through nine weeks. 
   
6. J.J. McCarthy is so bad that he's good. Since last season, J.J. McCarthy has won four straight starts following the Giants' win over the Eagles. Here's the crazy part: He hasn't thrown a single TD pass in any of those four games. That makes him the first QB over the past 40 years to win four consecutive games without throwing a single TD pass. That's certainly one way to get your name in the record book. 
7. Kansas City's Dynamic Duo. Travis Kelce caught four passes for 74 yards against the Jets on Sunday, and he has now totaled 9,365 receiving yards with Patrick Mahomes. That moves them past Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates (9,352) for the highest total ever by a QB-TE duo in NFL history. 
8. In a league of his own. Christian McCaffrey caught a touchdown pass against the Raiders on Sunday and now has 37 for his career, which is the most in NFL history by a running back. McCaffrey had been tied with Marshall Faulk for the record, but now he has it to himself. 
9. Caleb Williams joins bizarre club. The Bears QB threw four interceptions, but Chicago still managed to win. That made him just the third QB in franchise history to pull that off, joining Todd Collins (2010) and Rex Grossman (2006). Both seasons are notable because the Bears went to the NFC title game in 2010 and the Super Bowl in 2006. If you're going to win a game where your QB throws four picks, it usually means you have a stacked roster, and the Bears seem to have one this year. 
10. Herbert is hurting. The Chargers QB threw an interception on Sunday against the Texans and has now thrown a pick in each of his first eight games this year. That's the longest streak to start a season since Peyton Manning in 2015 (He did it in nine straight games). Manning did end up winning the Super Bowl that year with the Broncos, but that probably won't be happening for the Chargers. Herbert was also sacked eight times against the Texans, which is the most sacks a Chargers QB has taken in a single game since 1976.  

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Bills at Vikings

We have a showdown tonight in Minnesota with two 6-1 teams going at it. Although I think we can all agree that not all 6-1 teams are created equal. The Bills feel like a Super Bowl contender, but the Vikings feel like they're hanging on by a thread. 

The Vikings' offense has been abysmal this season, and Carson Wentz will be looking to jump-start it tonight. Wentz is getting the start because Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring injury. One notable injury for the Bills is left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs). He didn't practice all week and is listed as questionable. If he can't go, that will be a huge hit, with the Bills set to face one of the best defenses in the NFL. 

With that in mind, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Bills can win: The Vikings defense has been good this season, but teams have been able to run on it, which could open things up for James Cook to have a huge night. The Bills running back has quietly had a big season, rushing for 707 yards, which was ranked fifth in the NFL heading into Week 9. The Vikings will likely focus on slowing down Josh Allen, so a big day from Cook could help spur the Bills to a win. 
• Why the Vikings can win: The Vikings have a puncher's chance because they have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Heading into Week 9, the Vikings have surrendered the fewest points in the NFL and the second-fewest yards. Since the start of last season, the Bills have had 10 games with at least two turnovers, and the Vikings have been 7-1 since the start of last season when forcing at least two turnovers, so forcing a few turnovers seems like one route to winning. The Vikings will likely need their offense to make a play or two to win, and that could happen in this game. Carson Wentz will face a Bills defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game this year. Wentz has some great weapons, and if he can make some big throws, the Vikings might keep it close and even pull off the upset. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: James Cook OVER 18.5 rushing attempts (-108 at DraftKings): The Vikings defense has had some trouble stopping the run this year, so I expect the Bills to give them a full load of James Cook. The Bills running back has gone over 18.5 carries in five of his past six games, and he should be a big part of the game plan tonight, so I think we'll see it happen again. 
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Will Reichard OVER 1.5 field goals (-105 at DraftKings): The Bills defense hasn't been great this year, so I do think that Minnesota's offense will be able to move the ball tonight. However, I don't fully trust them in the red zone, which means we could end up seeing a few field goals from Reichard. The Vikings kicker has made at least two field goals in five of his past six games and I think we'll see that run continue against Buffalo.  

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 12-22 (5-12 on kicker props and 7-10 on all other props). It's gotten ugly. I clearly need to re-evaluate my entire process. I will use my entire flight home to Madrid to figure out how I can be better... or I might sleep. One or the other. 

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

Jared Dubin's pick:  Bills 20-14 over Vikings
Jordan Dajani's pick: Bills 24-23 over Vikings
John Breech's pick: Bills 24-17 over Vikings
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Bills 24-17 over Vikings
Prisco's pick: Bills 21-14 over Vikings

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all seven of our experts are taking the Bills to win straight-up, but only five of us are taking them to cover as a 3.5-point favorite. 

6. Extra points: Falcons trade former Pro Bowl safety to Jacksonville

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Jessie Bates heading to Jacksonville after Falcons-Jaguars deal. On Sunday morning, Jessie Bates played in Spain. On Sunday night, he flew back to Atlanta, and now he'll be heading to Jacksonville after the Jaguars acquired him on Monday. According to ESPN, the Jaguars are sending a 2027 2nd-round pick and a 2028 5th-round pick to Atlanta in exchange for Bates. Jags safety Eric Murray suffered a season-ending elbow injury in Week 8, and the Jags decided to replace him with a splash acquisition of Bates, a three-time second-team All-Pro. 
• Giants out on Jonathan Taylor. The Giants had an offer on the table for Jonathan Taylor at some point over the past week or so, but they pulled it. Despite that, John Harbaugh said that they might still be open to making a deal. "I'm not saying that report's not true. Those conversations are taking place," Harbaugh said Sunday, via ESPN. "If something happens for any player, can't talk about any [specific] player because they're with other teams right now, but we're not ruling anything out," Taylor said his goodbyes to Colts fans on Sunday, so it certainly seems like he's under the belief that he might be traded. 
• Justin Herbert dealing with possible injury. The Chargers QB suffered a finger injury on Sunday, and coach Jim Harbaugh admitted that it "could be a fracture." The injury appears to be to his left middle finger, and if so, he could play through it since it's on his non-throwing hand. The 0-8 Chargers play on Monday night in Week 10 against the Ravens. Unfortunately, the NFL is not allowed to flex out any Monday night games before Week 12, so we're stuck with what we're getting.  
• Seahawks might be down another QB. The Seahawks might be down to their third-string QB in Week 10 against the Raiders. Drew Lock started on Sunday against the Cardinals, but he suffered an oblique injury, according to coach Mike Macdonald. Sam Darnold sat out Week 9 with a quad injury, and if both miss Week 10, the Seahawks would be extremely short-handed. If Lock and Darnold can't play, that could open the door for Jalen Milroe to get his first career start. The good news for the Seahawks is that they have a bye in Week 11, so they just need to get through one more game; after that, they should be much healthier at QB heading into the backstretch of their schedule.