CFP Bubble Watch: LSU-Texas A&M loser in trouble

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The SEC's Bubble Watch is about to get real.

LSU will host Texas A&M on Saturday in a game that will feature two teams desperately trying to avoid a second defeat in September. The loser of that contest will see its chances of reaching the College Football Playoff sink to 10%, at best, a dangerous place to hover considering the most difficult stretch of the season hasn't even begun.

"Man up," Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said he'd tell his team after its home loss to Kentucky in Week 3. "You figure out who you're about in adversity. Everybody will quit on us. That's how this thing works."

The Aggies' chances of seeing the playoff dropped from 49% to 13% following Saturday's loss to the Wildcats, the largest change this week, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. LSU's chances fell to 28% after its defeat at Ole Miss on Saturday.

The Tigers and the Aggies aren't the only ones feeling the pressure, as Oklahoma travels to Georgia, where ESPN's FPI gives the Bulldogs an 83.4% chance to win. A second loss would be devastating to a Sooners team that hasn't passed the eye test since Week 1.

Oregon also is in dangerous territory as it heads to USC for a key Big Ten matchup that will help determine just how much trouble the Ducks are in after a surprising loss at Oklahoma State in Week 2.

For now, early leaders have emerged in each conference. But three weeks of data still leaves plenty of questions -- and teams with the potential to change the entire playoff picture.

Who are they?

Below you'll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma -- a team that is quietly brewing with potential but still impossible to figure out. This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. As more games are played, we'll begin to separate the true bubble teams from the contenders and the teams that have been eliminated.

Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds -- or busts -- its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket

ACC

Spotlight: Miami. The Hurricanes have yet to beat a ranked opponent, but two of their three wins were on the road, and all of them have been by double digits. The selection committee might not give Miami as much credit as voters outside of the room, though, because the Hurricanes have the No. 92-ranked schedule strength, and a home win against Central Michigan (2-1) on Saturday won't change that much. They are ranked No. 11 in ESPN's strength of record metric, though. As long as Miami locks up a CFP spot as the ACC champion, its schedule won't matter. That will hold true even if it loses Nov. 7 at Notre Dame since it's a nonconference game; it would impact Miami's seeding, though. Miami fans should be cheering for Clemson to win at Cal this week, because the better the Tigers are, the better a Miami victory will look against them on Oct. 3.

The enigma: Louisville. With the win against SMU on Saturday, the Cardinals took an early lead as the top challenger to Miami in the ACC. That potential matchup is now the most likely in the ACC title tilt, with Miami and Louisville each having at least a 42% chance to reach the championship game. SMU has the next-best chance at 18.1%, according to ESPN Analytics. Miami and Louisville don't play each other during the regular season. Is Louisville good enough to beat the Hurricanes? Well, it almost beat Ole Miss in the season opener before falling 41-38, and the Rebels are now the nation's No. 2 team in our latest projections. Louisville's toughest games are now behind it, as the Cardinals might not face another ranked opponent for the rest of the regular season.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami

Big 12

Spotlight: BYU. The Sept. 12 win against unranked Arizona is the highlight so far, but BYU has been passing the eye test against lesser competition. BYU is No. 7 in the country in offensive efficiency and No. 12 in total efficiency. The Cougars have a bye week to prepare for their Oct. 3 trip to TCU, but their true playoff fate lingers later, as games against Notre Dame on Oct. 17 and at Utah on Nov. 7 will reveal how seriously to take them in the CFP race. ESPN's FPI currently projects BYU to lose both of those games. Even if BYU loses both, though, it can still play for the Big 12 title and lock up a bid as a two-loss conference champion. That would likely mean having to play Utah a second time or beating Texas Tech for the first time when it matters the most. If BYU can dispatch the Fighting Irish at home on Oct. 17, that will increase its chances of reaching the CFP should it finish as the Big 12 runner-up. That would potentially create a nightmare scenario for the committee, because Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot if it finishes in the top 12, but it would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to a team that might not win its league.

The enigma: Utah. The Utes are interesting because they've looked good -- against an 0-4 FCS team, a 1-2 SEC squad and a winless Group of 6 foe. That's an opponent win rate of 25%, ranked No. 129 in the country, which is something the selection committee pays attention to. But the computers love Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah has the second-best chance to win the Big 12 (23%), behind Texas Tech (27.5%). We'll learn a little more about Utah on Saturday at Iowa State. A trip to Colorado on Oct. 17 won't be easy. But Houston and BYU are the most difficult opponents remaining on the Utes' schedule. ESPN's FPI projects Utah will win all of those contests.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: BYU

Big Ten

Spotlight: Ohio State. The Buckeyes will be playing in the SEC's shadow again on Saturday when they host Illinois, another unranked opponent they are expected to beat. ESPN's FPI gives Ohio State a 95.3% chance to topple the Illini and the second-best chance in the country (behind Notre Dame) to win out at 17.5%. The heart of Ohio State's season starts in October at Iowa, part of a string of five games that feature four ranked opponents. Ohio State's place in the AP poll right now is irrelevant, as it has opportunities against Indiana, USC and Oregon to impress the selection committee. It's always better to lose early than to lose late in the eyes of committee members. As long as Ohio State doesn't stumble, it should be the committee's highest-ranked one-loss team. The Buckeyes still have the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP at 68.5%.

The enigma: Penn State. ESPN's FPI projects Penn State to win every game. About those opponents, though: The Nittany Lions' schedule to date is ranked No. 125, according to ESPN Analytics; the rest of the sked is better -- ranked No. 57 -- but still not on par with what most SEC contenders are facing. Saturday's game against Wisconsin will feature Penn State's first Power 4 opponent. Without a Big Ten title, a weaker schedule will come under scrutiny in the committee meeting room, but it also opens the door for consideration. Penn State currently has the third-best chance to reach the Big Ten championship game, behind Ohio State and Indiana. That's probably because the Nittany Lions don't face either one of those teams -- or Oregon -- during the regular season. Penn State's best chance to impress the committee will be at home on Oct. 10 against USC. It will help PSU's case if the committee ranks Washington and Michigan too.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Ohio State, Indiana, USC

SEC

Spotlight: Ole Miss. Nobody else in the country has two wins against ranked opponents, which is why the Rebels shot up to No. 2 in this week's top 12 projection. Ole Miss also is No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric, behind Texas. The average CFP contender would have just a 34.9% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record as Ole Miss -- a schedule that's currently ranked No. 4 in the country. The season-opening win against Louisville looks even more impressive after the Cardinals earned their own ranked win on Saturday against SMU: Ole Miss could wind up with a win against the ACC runner-up. The Rebels' triumph over LSU was a major step in returning to the playoff, but the back half of the schedule is loaded, including games against Texas and Georgia. If Ole Miss is going to stay in the race, a win at Florida on Saturday will be critical. ESPN's FPI gives the Rebels less than a 50% chance to beat the Gators, Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. Ole Miss is in the spotlight today, but how long can it last?

The enigma: Tennessee. The Volunteers are off to a 3-0 start but have one win against an FCS opponent and have yet to beat a Power 4 team with a winning record. So, how good is this Tennessee team with a true freshman quarterback? We'll find out on Saturday when Texas comes to Knoxville with a defense that's ranked No. 5 in efficiency. Vols quarterback Faizon Brandon has played well, with six touchdowns and no interceptions so far, and he has accounted for three rushing touchdowns too. Tennessee has the fifth-best chance in the SEC, though, to reach the playoff at 33.4%. This will fluctuate as the league's members beat up on each other, but ESPN's FPI gives Texas a 70% chance to prevail on Saturday. If that happens, Tennessee will still have plenty of chances to impress the committee -- or tumble out -- against Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. The Vols avoid Georgia and Ole Miss during the regular season.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas, Ole Miss, Georgia, LSU, Alabama

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have been one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in total efficiency, behind Georgia. Nobody has a better chance than Notre Dame to win out at 35.1%, according to ESPN Analytics, but the rest of the schedule is ranked No. 54 in difficulty. The Irish have wins against Wisconsin and Michigan State, giving them a 2-0 record against the Big Ten heading into Saturday's game at Purdue. The question looming over the Irish is what the committee would do if they lose their two biggest games of the season: at BYU on Oct. 17 and versus Miami on Nov. 7. As long as Notre Dame is ranked in the top 12 on Selection Day, it's in. Two losses, though, would call that security blanket into question.

Group of 6

Spotlight: Boise State. The Broncos flirted with disaster Saturday night against South Dakota, with the score knotted at 24 in the fourth quarter. A 38-24 win keeps their playoff hopes alive, though, and Boise State still has the best chance to reach the CFP (19.9%) from the Group of 6, according to ESPN Analytics. The Broncos should hope that Oregon redeems itself from the Week 2 loss to Oklahoma State and reemerges as a playoff contender. The Broncos' narrow 34-27 road loss to the Ducks in the season opener could still be an asset in the committee meeting room because of how closely Boise State played a ranked Big Ten opponent -- as long as Oregon doesn't come unraveled in conference play.

Enigma: James Madison. Well, hello again, JMU. The surprise team of the 2025 CFP could be back. The Dukes currently have the second-best chance to reach the playoff (19.1%) from the Group of 6, according to ESPN Analytics. That's partly because they have a 39.8% chance to win the Sun Belt. The problem is that JMU doesn't face any ranked opponents, and its schedule is ranked No. 117. This season, the Group of 6 playoff team doesn't have to win its conference, so if there is another team out there (North Dakota State? South Florida?) that has played a tougher schedule but doesn't win its league, it could still be an option. Boise State (No. 83) has a better schedule than all of them.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Boise State

Bracket

Based on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ole Miss
No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 18 and 19

No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 11 USC at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 LSU

Quarterfinal games

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.

No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Miami winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 USC/No. 6 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Alabama winner vs. No. 2 Ole Miss
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 LSU winner vs. No. 1 Texas