2027: Fintiri’s exit, Atiku, Ribadu’s interests set stage for tight Adamawa governorship race

The 2027 gubernatorial election in Adamawa State is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing in the state’s history.

The impending exit of Governor Ahmadu Fintiri, whose second term ends next May, and the conflicting interests of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, as well as other local factors, have created a dynamic in which no party holds a visible advantage as campaign activities get underway.

In the 2023 general elections, Mr Fintiri and Atiku combined their forces under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to beat the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The political landscape has since shifted dramatically. Not only have those two allies parted ways, but other major realignments have also occurred across the state.

The political picture is such that six candidates now believe they can win the governorship election.

The power dynamics

Governor Fintiri defected to the APC in February. Combining his force with that of Mr Ribadu has strengthened the federal ruling party in the state it lost in 2019, when Mr Fintiri defeated the incumbent Jibrilla Bindow with a margin of over 40,000 votes in the governorship election.

Meanwhile, Atiku’s local and national clout means he remains a formidable force in his home state. Also, his presidential ambition offers a strong rallying cry that will benefit the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate.

However, past elections demonstrate that Adamawa voters don’t always listen to godfathers in state-level politics. Consequently, having Mr Fintiri, Atiku, or Mr Ribadu behind a candidate may not guarantee victory in the 2027 governorship race.

Volatile politics

Adamawa State has a long history of political volatility, largely driven by its multi-ethnic composition. This was visible well before the creation of the current state structure.

During the transition to the Second Republic, under the former Gongola State, which comprised present-day Adamawa and Taraba states, the five registered political parties, NPN, GNPP, PRP, NPP, and UPN, fiercely contested the 1979 gubernatorial election.

Abubakar Barde of the GNPP won the election to become the state’s first executive governor. However, Bamanga Tukur of the NPN defeated him in the 1983 election, before Mr Tukur’s tenure was cut short by the 1983 military coup.

The political volatility was again on full display under the Ibrahim Babangida regime’s transition programme to the aborted Third Republic.

In the Social Democratic Party (SDP) gubernatorial primaries, the contest between Atiku and the late Bala Takaya was so fierce that the military junta cancelled it and disqualified the two men from the repeat exercise.

The SDP eventually nominated Boss Mustapha, but internal party divisions in the SDP helped the late Saleh Michika of the rival National Republican Convention (NRC) to win the 1991 governorship election.

Split-ticket voting is also a recurring theme in the state.

In 1979, while the NPN won the presidential election, in Gongola State, the GNPP secured the governorship. Similarly, in 1993, Moshood Abiola of the SDP won the presidential election in the state, when Adamawa was governed by Mr Michika of the NRC.

In the Fourth Republic, Boni Haruna completed two successive terms (1999–2007) after Atiku, who headed their winning ticket, was selected as vice-presidential candidate by Olusegun Obasanjo.

However, the 2007 election triggered another round of intense political rivalry. Murtala Nyako of the PDP was declared the winner, but the Election Petition Appeal Tribunal voided his election in February 2008 over the exclusion of some opposition candidates.

Mr Nyako won the subsequent re-run in April 2008, but his second term was plagued by instability, ultimately leading to his impeachment in July 2014.

Following Mr Nyako’s removal, the then Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Mr Fintiri, assumed office as acting governor. But his own interim tenure was also cut short when the Federal High Court ruled that Deputy Governor Bala Ngilari’s earlier resignation was invalid, paving the way for Mr Ngilari to serve out the remainder of Mr Nyako’s tenure.

In 2015, Mr Bindow won the governorship poll under the APC. He served only one term, as he was defeated in 2019 by Mr Fintiri of the PDP, who went on to secure a second term.

The candidates and the crises

Backed by federal power, ruling-party resources, and the newly absorbed state executive machinery following Mr Fintiri’s defection, analysts see the APC governorship candidate, Tijjani Galadima, as the frontrunner.

A scion of the aristocratic Galadima of Adamawa family, the APC candidate is an experienced technocrat and public administrator.

He studied Agriculture at Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, and holds a master’s degree in Banking and Finance from the University of Ibadan.

He previously served as the Executive Secretary and CEO of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), where he directed major human capital development projects and tertiary scholarship programmes.

Mr Galadima is campaigning on the “Adamawa Rising Agenda.” His campaign focuses on sustaining the infrastructure initiatives of the Fintiri administration, enhancing public-sector transparency, leveraging solid minerals, campaigning for local agriculture to enter industrial value chains, and advancing human capital.

His campaign also promises to consolidate urban-rural road network development, double crop yields through agro-industrialisation, enhance universal healthcare access, provide solar-powered clean energy, and maintain free secondary education.

However, his candidature faces significant challenges.

A prominent rival, Abdulrahman Haske, defected from the APC after disputing the outcome of the primary. He is now the candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

Mr Haske is an influential businessman. Educated at the American University of Nigeria (AUN) and Manchester Business School, he serves as the Group Managing Director of AA&R Investment Group.

His conglomerate holds major interests in oil exploration (via Etihad Oilfield Services and Mars E&P), large-scale agriculture (H&W Rice Mill), ICT, and logistics. He also holds the traditional title of ‘Ciroman Ganye’ in the state.

Three State House of Assembly members representing the Yola South, Nasarawo Binyeri, and Numan constituencies joined his defection train and also got APM tickets for reelection.

Mr Haske’s platform leverages strong youth appeal, extensive corporate exposure, and private-sector solutions.

His core profile focuses on industrialising Adamawa’s agricultural sector and instilling corporate efficiency into public administration.

The emergence of Mr Haske as the APM flagbearer and his selection of Safriel Glah, a retired general manager at NNPC Limited, as running mate make the party a serious platform.

The ADC

The ADC candidate, Hamman Modibbo, is a public finance administrator and pioneer director and chief executive officer of the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU).

He holds a Master of Science degree in International Business from the University of Salford, Manchester, and a Bachelor of Arts degree (B.A. Hons) in History from the University of Maiduguri.

As the first head of the NFIU as an independent body, Mr Modibbo led a transition team that transformed the small unit into an agency with the important responsibility of receiving, analysing and sharing financial intelligence with relevant agencies within and outside the country.

Mr Modibbo bases his campaign on transparency, financial discipline, institutional reforms, and community and border security.

However, his candidacy is also embroiled in an intra-party dispute. Umar Suleiman, former managing director of the Nigerian Ports Authority and former diplomat, had won the ADC primary election in May, defeating Mr Modibbo.

Mr Suleiman insists he remains the authentic candidate and has secured court injunctions against the party substituting him.

Despite these legal barriers, ADC national leaders, alongside presidential candidate Atiku, endorsed Mr Modibbo in August, sparking a full-blown factional conflict over the ticket.

Consequently, while Mr Suleiman is actively contesting his substitution in court, the party’s national leadership continues to back Mr Modibbo.

Adding to the rift, Muhammad Shuwa is the candidate backed by the Nafiu Bala faction of the ADC, bringing to three the candidates claiming the ADC ticket in the state.

The NDC, LP and PDP

The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Aishatu Ahmed, popularly known as Binani, is a formidable politician in Adamawa.

Mrs Ahmed, a former senator, is popular for her grassroots network and micro-empowerment projects. She promotes grassroots social welfare, healthcare access, and economic inclusion for women and micro-entrepreneurs across the state.

A civil engineer by training and former Member of the House of Representatives (Yola North/Yola South/Girei), the woman known across the state as Binani represented the Adamawa Central District in the Senate from 2019–2023.

She was the APC governorship candidate in 2023 and came under the spotlight when she was controversially declared the winner by a rogue electoral official.

Opponents also accused her of electoral fraud in the NDC party primary.

Another candidate, Ishaku Abbo, represented the Adamawa North District in the Senate in 2019-2023, and returned to the seat in 2023 until his election was voided by the courts. An outspoken political figure, Mr Abbo has a strong youth following across Northern Adamawa.

Flying the Labour Party (LP) banner, Mr Abbo brings a populist approach to the campaign trail.

His political strategy focuses on engaging young voters, championing social justice reform, developing rural infrastructure, and driving grassroots mobilisation across the northern senatorial zone.

Maurice Vunobolki, the candidate of the Nyesom Wike-backed Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is a chartered accountant, financial management expert, and international development consultant.

He previously worked with foreign-assisted development projects, public procurement frameworks, and local government infrastructure initiatives in Northern Nigeria.

However, Mr Vunobolki faces an internal challenge from Caleb Myebangara of the Tanimu Turaki-led PDP faction.

Mr Myebangara, a professional banker, has fully resumed his campaign while awaiting the outcome of the Tanimu Turaki-led PDP case before the Court of Appeal in Abuja.

How the election will be fought and won – Analysts

Mahdi Abba, head of the Department of Political Science at Modibbo Adama University, Yola, noted that the major political parties each have distinct competitive advantages, setting the stage for a closely fought race.

According to Mr Abba, the APC candidate benefits from the formidable power of incumbency, backed by both state and federal government machinery and supported by a robust party structure and dedicated loyalists. He said Mr Galadima remains a strong contender for victory.

He also acknowledged that the ADC candidate, Mr Modibbo, is positioned to capitalise on the substantial political clout of the former vice president.

“Historical voting trends in the state demonstrate a strong correlation between Atiku’s party affiliation and gubernatorial success—evidenced by APC’s victory in 2015 when he was a member, followed by PDP’s victories in 2019 and 2023 after his return to the party. With Atiku now backing the ADC, the party is set to make a significant impact”, Mr Abba said.

On Mrs Ahmed, Mr Abba said the NDC candidate is a seasoned politician with a deeply rooted grassroots network, bringing strong electoral momentum to the party in Adamawa State.

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“Her track record of successful campaigns for the House of Representatives and the Senate—particularly her solid base in metropolitan Adamawa—underscores her strong appeal among the electorate”, the political scientist said.

The PDP stands to gain a strategic advantage if ethno-religious dynamics shape the election.

According to Mr Abba, because the APC, NDC, ADC, and APM candidates are all Muslim Fulanis, a split in their shared voter base may work to the PDP candidate’s advantage

“Also, the Labour Party candidate commands significant regional popularity, particularly within his home zone comprising Mubi North, Mubi South, Maiha, Madagali, and Michika.

Having secured election victories twice from this district, his localised stronghold will play a decisive role if ethno-religious sentiments—a historically common feature in Adamawa State politics—come to the fore”, Mr Abba said.