AI May Not Replace Every Job. Anthropic Reveals Where It Could Hit Hardest

Artificial Intelligence is boosting productivity across the economy, but its rapid adoption has also intensified concerns over job losses and workplace disruption. While AI is expected to enhance efficiency across industries, its impact is unlikely to be uniform. Some occupations may see greater gains in productivity, while others may face significant changes in the way work is performed.

AI's Impact on Wages And Economy

According to Anthropic, "In the modest change scenario, AI acts like a normal technology over the next five years and has small macroeconomic effects. In the extreme scenario, AI is transformative: by 2030 GDP is 32 per cent above its no-AI path, and nearly one in five cognitive workers is unemployed."

The study estimates that average wages could rise by 9.7 per cent as AI boosts overall economic output. However, under the extreme scenario, wages for cognitive occupations could fall by 11.5 per cent as AI increasingly performs tasks traditionally carried out by knowledge workers.

Cognitive jobs are occupations that rely primarily on thinking, analysis, problem-solving, decision-making, communication and knowledge creation rather than physical labour or repetitive manual work. These include professions such as programmers, analysts, researchers and customer service representatives.

Jobs At Higher Risks

Artificial intelligence is poised to reshape a wide range of occupations, with computer programmers appearing to have the highest exposure to AI-driven change. According to Anthropic's Labor Market Impacts of AI study, programming roles recorded an observed exposure of 74.5 per cent, indicating that large language models (LLMs) could significantly speed up many coding-related tasks. 

Customer service representatives (70.1 per cent), data entry keyers (67.1 per cent) and medical record specialists (66.7 per cent) also rank among the occupations most exposed to AI. Marketing specialists (64.8 per cent), sales representatives (62.8 per cent) and financial and investment analysts (57.2 per cent) are expected to see substantial productivity gains as AI assists with research, analysis and routine workflows. 

Even highly skilled technology roles such as software quality assurance analysts (51.9 per cent), information security analysts (48.6 per cent) and computer user support specialists (46.8 per cent) show significant exposure.

However, high exposure does not necessarily mean jobs will disappear. Anthropic notes that observed exposure measures the extent to which AI tools could automate or accelerate specific tasks within an occupation. In many cases, AI is more likely to transform how work is done, enabling workers to complete tasks faster and more efficiently rather than replacing them entirely. As a result, the technology's impact may be felt more through changing job responsibilities and skill requirements than through outright job losses.