2027: How former governor’s backing of ex-IGP Adamu could complicate APC’s bid to retain Nasarawa governorship seat

The 2027 governorship election in Nasarawa State will test whether the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) can manage the fallout from its primaries, with Aliyu Wadada and former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Adamu emerging as the principal figures in a contest that could be shaped significantly by former governor Tanko Al-Makura.

Mr Wadada took the APC ticket with the backing of Governor Abdullahi Sule, while Mr Adamu, who finished second in the party’s primary, has moved on to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to continue his governorship bid.

But the significance of Mr Adamu’s challenge goes beyond the defection of a defeated aspirant.

He has the backing of Mr Al-Makura, a former two-term governor and senator whose political history demonstrates an ability to defeat established structures.

That combination, a former IGP with statewide political ambition and a former governor with an established political network, presents a more complicated challenge to Mr Wadada than a conventional third-party candidacy would.

The Al-Makura factor

Mr Al-Makura is one of the few politicians in Nasarawa whose electoral history makes his involvement difficult to dismiss.

In 2011, he defeated a sitting governor, Akwe Doma of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on the platform of the then Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).

Mr Al-Makura polled 324,823 votes against Mr Doma’s 320,398, winning with a margin of just 4,425 votes by building a competitive coalition outside the dominant political structure.

That history matters to the present contest.

But Mr Al-Makura’s electoral record since leaving Government House in 2019 also provides a more nuanced picture of his current political strength.

After leaving office, he contested the 2019 senatorial election and won the Nasarawa South seat, defeating the incumbent senator, Suleiman Adokwe. He sought re-election in 2023 but lost the seat to the PDP’s Mohammed Onawo. Mr Onawo polled 93,064 votes against Mr Al-Makura’s 76,813.

The defeat demonstrates that the political influence accumulated by a former governor does not automatically translate into electoral victory, particularly years after leaving office.

Mr Al-Makura has nevertheless remained politically active. He currently chairs the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) board and serves as the North-central Coordinator of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors.

His political relevance is therefore not in doubt. The more difficult question for 2027 is whether that relevance can still be converted into a functioning electoral organisation across the state.

Mr Al-Makura’s association with the wider political mobilisation around President Bola Tinubu also gives him access to networks beyond his immediate political base in Nasarawa.

From political ally to challenger

There is also a striking irony in the present contest.

Mr Al-Makura backed Mr Sule’s political ambition in the past and played a significant role in the political realignments that preceded the governor’s emergence.

He backed Mr Sule’s emergence in 2019 and later endorsed him for a second term. Now, the two men appear to be on opposite sides of the succession question.

Mr Sule endorsed Mr Wadada as the preferred candidate before the APC primary, to the dismay of the other aspirants and several political actors.

Mr Al-Makura questioned the process by which Mr Wadada was presented as the preferred candidate and said he had not been consulted.

He subsequently backed Mr Adamu’s bid for the APC governorship ticket. In May, Mr Al-Makura publicly declared his support for the former IGP’s governorship ambition ahead of the APC primary.

Mr Wadada eventually won the primary, securing 195,285 votes statewide, while Mr Adamu was officially credited with 39,675 votes.

The result did not end the political disagreement. Instead, Mr Adamu left the APC for the SDP. That development has transformed an internal APC contest into a wider political battle.

Wadada has the advantage of structure
Mr Wadada nevertheless begins the general election from a position of considerable strength.

He is the ruling party’s candidate and enjoys the backing of the sitting governor.

He also demonstrated the strength of his support during the APC primary, securing 195,285 votes across the state’s 147 wards to return well ahead of Mr Adamu, who was officially credited with 39,675 votes.

The result gave Mr Wadada a commanding numerical advantage over his closest rival. It also demonstrated the depth of the APC structure behind his candidacy.

But a primary election and a general election are different contests. The general election will require Mr Wadada to consolidate voters beyond the APC and persuade disgruntled party members not to transfer their support to Mr Adamu or another opposition candidate.

That is where the former IGP’s candidacy becomes relevant.

Adamu’s gamble

Mr Adamu has taken a considerable political risk by leaving the APC.

He has abandoned the platform with the strongest established structure in the state and joined a party that will have to build much of the machinery required for a governorship election.

But he has also gained political freedom. Outside the APC, he can present himself as an alternative to the succession arrangement backed by Governor Sule.

His campaign can appeal directly to voters who believe the governor’s anointed should not automatically inherit the administration.

His profile as former police boss also gives him national recognition that most third-party candidates lack. But recognition alone will not win Nasarawa.

The former IGP will need ward-level structures, local political leaders, polling-unit agents and enough resources to compete across the state’s 13 local government areas.

This is precisely where Mr Al-Makura could become important.

Can Al-Makura reproduce the 2011 upset?

The central question surrounding the former governor is whether his political influence can be converted into a statewide electoral structure for Mr Adamu.

Mr Al-Makura has already demonstrated that he can win outside the established political structure. His 2011 victory over Mr Doma remains the clearest example.

He contested on the CPC platform, defeated an incumbent PDP governor, proving that a sufficiently organised opposition coalition can overturn the advantage of incumbency.

But his 2023 Senate defeat also shows that political influence is not

The test will therefore be whether the former governor can still mobilise political actors across the state and whether those actors are prepared to work against the APC candidate.

If Mr Al-Makura can mobilise his political network, attract influential former APC members and help Mr Adamu establish a credible grassroots organisation, the SDP candidate could become more than a spoiler.

He could become a serious contender.

But that is not guaranteed.

Political influence accumulated as governor does not automatically translate into votes years later.

The Tinubu movement dimension

Mr Al-Makura’s wider political role could also become relevant.

He has been identified as part of the North-central mobilisation around President Bola Tinubu’s political project, including his role as North-Central Coordinator of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors.

That creates an interesting political calculation.

The APC’s national leadership wants the party to remain dominant across the North-central and to retain control of states where it currently governs.

Nasarawa is strategically important to that calculation.

If Mr Al-Makura’s political network becomes significantly involved in an SDP campaign against the APC candidate, questions about the relationship between his regional political role and his activities in Nasarawa are likely to emerge.

The former governor has, in recent months, continued to publicly mobilise support for President Tinubu’s re-election while backing Mr Adamu’s governorship ambition.

At a recent meeting with former local government chairmen and campaign coordinators who worked with him under the CPC and later APC structures, Mr Al-Makura, in his capacity as North-Central Coordinator of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors, directed participants in the open session to mobilise support for Mr Tinubu’s re-election.

Mr Wadada’s name was reportedly not mentioned during the open session.

Sources familiar with the proceedings, however, said that during a closed-door session, Mr Al-Makura directed the political actors to work for Mr Adamu in the governorship election.

The claim could not be independently verified from the former governor’s office. If accurate, the development presents an unusual political calculation.

Mr Al-Makura could continue to mobilise support for President Tinubu at the national level while his political network in Nasarawa works for an SDP candidate challenging the APC’s governorship candidate.

Whether that arrangement can be sustained as the election approaches remains to be seen.

But if part of the former governor’s old CPC and APC network follows Mr Adamu, the SDP candidate could enter the contest with a grassroots structure considerably stronger than that normally associated with a party outside the two dominant political camps.

For the APC, the challenge would then be more than defeating an opposition candidate. It would involve preventing former party operatives with experience from turning their knowledge of its structures against the party.

The APC’s internal challenge

The danger for Mr Wadada is not necessarily that Mr Adamu will defeat him outright.

It is that Mr Adamu could take enough votes from the APC’s traditional support base to make the election significantly more competitive.

The former IGP participated in the APC primary. He campaigned across the state. He had supporters within the party and the backing of influential political figures, including Mr Al-Makura.

The question now is how many of those relationships survived his departure from the APC. If only a small portion follows him, Mr Wadada’s structural advantage remains substantial. But if a significant number of APC politicians and grassroots supporters move with him, the calculation changes.

That is why the coming months will be as important for party reconciliation as they are for campaign mobilisation.

The Sule factor

Governor Sule’s political legacy is also tied to the outcome.

Endorsement as the APC’s preferred successor helped Mr Wadada to win the party’s primary. But the governor must now confront the consequences of that succession strategy.

The APC retaining Nasarawa will depend partly on whether it can prevent the primary from leaving permanent factions within the party.

Recent political reporting has already described the dispute over candidate selection as exposing internal tensions within the APC in Nasarawa.

A united APC would give Mr Wadada a formidable advantage. A divided party could create the opening Mr Adamu needs.

Umbugadu remains in the equation

The emergence of Mr Adamu does not remove the PDP and its candidate, David Ombugadu, from the contest.

Mr Umbugadu remains a formidable opposition figure after a strong challenge to Mr Sule’s re-election in 2023. The PDP candidate polled 283,016 against the incumbent governor’s 347,209.

His challenge in 2027 will be to maintain the PDP’s existing support while capitalising on any divisions within the APC.

But Mr Adamu presents both an opportunity and a threat to the PDP.

If the former IGP draws primarily on APC supporters, Mr Umbugadu could benefit from the ruling party’s fragmentation.

If Adamu attracts voters who would otherwise support the PDP, the SDP could instead weaken the opposition’s chances.

This makes the distribution of Mr Adamu’s eventual support more important than its absolute size.

The geography of the race

The contest will also be determined by how the three major camps perform across Nasarawa’s three senatorial districts.

Mr Wadada has the advantage of representing Nasarawa West in the Senate and of having won the APC primary statewide.

Mr Adamu must demonstrate that his political appeal extends beyond the networks associated with his previous political activities.

Mr Umbugadu must defend the PDP’s existing support while seeking to expand it.

The decisive factor could therefore be each candidate’s ability to build a coalition that cuts across senatorial, ethnic, religious, and local-government political interests.

The choice of Mr Adamu’s running mate could become particularly important in that calculation.

Political analyst Ishaya Kuje told PREMIUM TIMES that the contest is increasingly shaping up as a battle between Mr Wadada and Mr Adamu, with the choice of Mr Adamu’s running mate potentially becoming a major turning point.

Mr Kuje said an influential running mate from a major voting bloc, such as the Gwandara or Gbagyi, could help Mr Adamu broaden his coalition and divide the Eggon vote that the APC is seeking to consolidate.

The Eggon have a substantial presence in Nasarawa, particularly around Nasarawa Eggon Local Government Area and neighbouring communities.

That makes the choice of running mate more than a matter of geographical balancing. It could influence how the vote is distributed among the major tickets.

The candidate who merely dominates his traditional stronghold may not be enough.

A battle over the APC’s political inheritance

Ultimately, the Nasarawa election is shaping up as a contest over the political inheritance of the Sule administration.

Mr Wadada represents continuity with the ruling APC and has the governor’s institutional support.

Mr Adamu represents a break from the succession arrangement and is attempting to build an alternative coalition outside the party.

Mr Al-Makura provides the most intriguing bridge between the two camps because he understands the APC from within and has previously demonstrated that he can build an opposition movement capable of defeating an incumbent.

His 2011 victory over Mr Doma is not proof that history will repeat itself.

But it is a reminder that Nasarawa politics has produced major upsets before.

And Mr Al-Makura was at the centre of one of them.

That makes his role in the 2027 contest more consequential than that of a former governor merely lending his name to another candidate.

The political history of Nasarawa also provides another precedent for Mr Adamu.

Mr Labaran Maku lost the PDP governorship primary ahead of the 2015 election and subsequently contested on the platform of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

He polled about 179,000 votes and finished second to Mr Al-Makura.

The result demonstrated that a politician who loses a major-party primary can transfer a substantial personal following to another platform.

But it also showed the limits of such a strategy.

Mr Maku did not win.

He contested again in 2019 on the APGA platform and polled 132,784 votes, finishing behind Mr Sule of the APC and Mr Umbugadu of the PDP.

For Mr Adamu, the Maku experience offers a clear lesson: leaving a major party can significantly alter an election without necessarily producing victory.

He must therefore prove that his political base is sufficiently broad and transferable to sustain a statewide campaign outside the APC.

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Another potentially important factor is the relationship between the two Umbugadus in the contest.

Mr Wadada’s running mate is Emmanuel Umbugadu, while David Umbugadu is the PDP governorship candidate.

The two men are not biological relatives, according to information obtained by PREMIUM TIMES, but both are from Mada Station in Nasarawa Eggon Local Government Area.

Mr Emmanuel Umbugadu is regarded in his community as generous and has strong grassroots connections. His selection could therefore help the APC attract significant support among voters in the area.

The choice could also complicate Mr David Umbugadu’s efforts to consolidate support in a traditional area of influence.

Political analyst Ishaya Kuje said Mr Umbugadu’s emergence as Mr Wadada’s running mate could affect the PDP candidate’s performance in his traditional areas, particularly alongside the emergence of a retired General, Nuhu Anbazo, of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), another Eggon candidate.

The development could make the Eggon electorate one of the key battlegrounds of the election, rather than a guaranteed bloc for any one candidate.

Mr Kuje also believes Mr David Umbugadu is unlikely to reproduce the electoral performance that made him a formidable challenger to Mr Sule in 2023.

He said Mr Umbugadu’s brief movement towards the APC before returning to the PDP had affected his political support, particularly among the Eggon and Gbagyi.

Mr Umbugadu resigned from the PDP in February 2026, joined the APC, and then returned to the PDP less than a month later, citing political differences.

Mr Kuje also identified Mr Maku’s absence from Mr Umbugadu’s 2027 campaign structure as another potential setback.

Mr Maku served as Mr Umbugadu’s campaign Director-General in 2023 but is now supporting Labour Party candidate Jonathan Gaza, a Gbagyi by tribe, Mr Kuje said.

The emergence of Mr Anbazo could further complicate Mr Umbugadu’s effort to consolidate the support he attracted in 2023.

Mr Kuje described Mr David Umbugadu as more likely to play the role of a spoiler than a candidate positioned to win the election.

According to the analyst, Mr Umbugadu’s brief move towards the APC followed assurances he believed he had received from the party, but he returned to the PDP after sensing what he considered foul play.

Mr Umbugadu’s objective in 2027, the analyst argued, could therefore be to deny the APC victory by breaking its votes in areas where the PDP candidate remains influential.

That assessment will ultimately depend on how much of Mr Umbugadu’s 2023 support base remains intact and whether the PDP can rebuild its organisation ahead of the election.

The 2027 contest will therefore test not only the popularity of the candidates but also the durability of the political networks behind them.

For Mr Wadada, the challenge is not simply winning the general election.

It is keeping the ruling party sufficiently united to prevent the political coalition that produced his primary victory from being dismantled from within.

For Mr Adamu, the task is to prove that his political network can survive outside the APC.

For Mr Al-Makura, it is another test of whether the political machinery that once defeated a sitting governor can still move the political terrain in Nasarawa.

For Mr Emmanuel Umbugadu, his selection gives the APC an opportunity to strengthen its position among the Eggon electorate.

For Mr David Umbugadu, the challenge is to preserve enough of his 2023 support base to remain electorally relevant while using the PDP platform to deny the APC a decisive victory.

And for Mr Adamu, the next major decision may be the most consequential of all: who he chooses as his running mate and whether that choice can produce the broader coalition required to challenge the APC.

The 2027 Nasarawa governorship election may therefore be decided not only by who has the strongest candidate, but by who can assemble the broadest political coalition, and who can keep that coalition intact until election day.