Three hot starters to believe in, one player who will break out in Week 4

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  Eric KarabellOct 2, 2026, 06:41 AM ET

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  Eric Karabell is a senior writer covering fantasy football, baseball and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of the FSWA Hall of Fame, a BBWAA baseball Hall of Fame voter and author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments."

Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!

NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.

Don't be surprised if ... New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough leads the NFL in passing yards

It is early, yes, but Shough enters Week 4 ranked first in the NFL in pass attempts and second in passing yards, behind only the Panthers' Bryce Young. Young has shown improvement so far, a formidable foe for accruing passing numbers, and we cannot forget about the Rams' Matthew Stafford, Lions' Jared Goff and Cowboys' Dak Prescott, last season's top three in passing yards. The Broncos' Bo Nix threw 612 passes!

Last season, the Saints averaged 93.4 rushing yards per game, 28th in the league. This season, the Saints are faring a tad better, at 101.3 yards per game. But it may be a mirage. Offseason acquisition Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) leads the team, but he will miss at least this Monday's game with the Atlanta Falcons and perhaps multiple weeks. Pass-catching Alvin Kamara is next up, but the Saints may feature Kendre Miller on early downs and save Kamara, 31, for reception work. Shough, sturdy at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, is a factor with his legs, too, especially at the goal line, but also earning designed runs.

Shough is throwing a ton, on pace for 516 completions on 748 attempts and 5,196 passing yards, along with 45 touchdown passes. Those would be historic numbers. Tom Brady holds the record for pass completions and attempts (490 for 733 with the 2022 Buccaneers), while Peyton Manning set the standard in passing yards (5,477 for the 2013 Broncos). Don't expect Shough to get quite there, but offensive-minded head coach Kellen Moore clearly trusts him, and this team appears attracted to shootouts. We like shootouts in fantasy!

Shough boasts one of the league's top wide receivers in Chris Olave, who is tied for the NFL lead in receptions and second in receiving yards, while Devaughn Vele seems relevant. TE Juwan Johnson ranks third in points at his position (and No. 2 TE Noah Fant has scored three TDs). Dynamic rookie Jordyn Tyson (hamstring), the No. 8 selection in the draft from Arizona State, may return from injured reserve as soon as Week 5. It is easy to see how this passing game thrives all season, for volume and efficiency, even throwing downfield, especially with a friendly schedule.

ESPN Fantasy ranks Shough favorably, for Week 4 and beyond, for good reason. Shough, who was a borderline QB1 option during his nine starts as a rookie last season, is neither young nor inexperienced. This isn't J.J. McCarthy trying to develop, you know. Shough played for three colleges over seven years, and he turned 27 years old this week. He is a week older than Jaguars starter Trevor Lawrence, now in his sixth NFL season, and three months older than the 49ers' Brock Purdy, a five-year veteran. He may be better than those fellows for fantasy, too.

Don't be surprised if ... the Green Bay Packers boast a pair of top-10 wide receivers in Christian Watson and Matthew Golden

The 1-2 Packers aren't lacking in issues, whether it is offense, defense, injuries or a key suspension, but the good thing for fantasy managers is it looks like Watson and Golden are well on their collective way to banner seasons. The Packers probably do not want QB Jordan Love throwing 40 times per game, but the team cannot run the football sans Josh Jacobs, and the defense hasn't kept them in the two losses.

The most recent Packers player to reach 1,000 receiving yards was Davante Adams, playing with QB Aaron Rodgers, back in 2021. Romeo Doubs, currently underachieving with the New England Patriots, led the team last season with 724 receiving yards. Perhaps a healthy Tucker Kraft would have gotten to 1,000 yards last season without the knee injury, but we will never know. The Packers "let" Love throw 579 times in 2023. They went 9-8. Then Love averaged 432 pass attempts during the past two seasons. The team wasn't much better, but Jacobs was the focal point of the offense. He isn't available right now.

Love is on pace for 703 pass attempts, but it is not quite the same as what Shough is doing. Shough is completing 68.9% of his myriad passes. Love is at 52.4%, 31st in the league among qualified passers (only Jameis Winston is worse). Watson, a 2022 second-round pick, and Golden, the first-rounder from 2025, each rank among the top 10 in receiving yards, each pacing for more than 1,400.

Nobody else, including the disappointing Kraft, has mattered much. Jayden Reed (neck) was supposed to matter, but his season is over, with surgery pending. Veteran Skyy Moore (Chiefs, 49ers) saw seven targets in Week 3. Perhaps Kraft, who we assume is healthy enough after last season's ACL surgery, improves his numbers. MarShawn Lloyd averages only 5.4 fantasy PPG. That's nearly worthless. The Packers' offense, for now, is Love throwing to two wide receivers. This can work for us, though.

Don't be surprised if ... QB Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts break out big numbers this Sunday

Jones hasn't done much in fantasy so far, putting up 9.4 points per game and failing to reach even 12 fantasy points in any game. Then again, consider the circumstances. Jones tore his Achilles last December, so it was hardly assured he would recover in time to even play football in September. Jones hasn't been running, he has thrown an interception in each game, and he lost two fumbles in Week 3, but he wasn't exactly facing the Cowboys. The Colts faced the Ravens, Chiefs and Texans. Jones is rostered in 23.9% of ESPN leagues.

This feels like an important week for the other people on the Colts' offense (not Jonathan Taylor, who is awesome), facing a dreadful Washington Commanders defense on Sunday morning in London (get those lineups in Saturday night!). While it may amount to little, the Colts signed former Giant Darius Slayton this week to replace brittle Alec Pierce (heel). Slayton is a deep threat. Perhaps he handles a small role in London, but if they give him chances, he is a deep-league and DraftKings consideration due to a low salary.

Still, the point remains that Washington cannot defend well versus the deep pass. That is not exactly what Keenan Allen does well, but Josh Downs is capable, and while journeyman Laquon Treadwell has only four catches so far, three of them have been for at least 20 yards. Jones will aim to throw the football deep on Sunday, and our expectations should be better. It may work out nicely. The Colts are favored by 3.5 points, and I think they win by more than that.