Strong AI demand prompts Hong Kong trade body to raise export growth forecast

Stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence-related products has prompted the Trade Development Council to sharply raise its full-year forecast for Hong Kong export growth in 2026 to as much as 47 per cent.

The latest revision follows the council in June raising its midyear forecast to 20 per cent growth, from an earlier estimate of 8 to 9 per cent.

Its latest survey of the city’s major exporters also found that their business confidence and market expectations had remained strong and optimistic in the third quarter of 2026.

Releasing its quarterly research report on Monday, the council said it had “substantially revised upwards” its forecast for Hong Kong’s merchandise export growth in 2026 to a range between 42 per cent and 47 per cent.

“The AI-driven demand for related electronic products remains robust, leading to strong growth momentum for Hong Kong’s electronic exports, and it is expected to persist in the remainder of 2026,” the report said.

The broad-based demand from the city’s key export markets, including mainland China and the Asean bloc, was also likely to continue, the research found.

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“The strong Hong Kong export growth recorded this year has been driven primarily by the rapid acceleration of global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure,” said Bruce Pang Ming, the council’s director of research.

“Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected, providing substantial support to Hong Kong’s exports.”

The council also noted that this move reflected the city’s better-than-anticipated export performance, with 42.5 per cent year-on-year growth over the first eight months of 2026.

Electronics accounted for about 80 per cent of Hong Kong’s total exports in the first eight months of 2026. Exports of electronics registered 52.8 per cent year‑on‑year growth, according to the council.

“Major markets included the [mainland], Asean and the US, reflecting strong demand across global technology supply chains,” it said.

“Particularly notable was the strong performance of items related to growing investments in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, data centres and next‑generation digital technologies worldwide.

“AI‑related electronics now account for an increasingly significant share of Hong Kong’s exports.”

The growth came despite the United States imposing an additional 12.5 per cent Section 301 tariff on imports from a number of trading partners, including the mainland and Hong Kong, according to the council.

Such tariffs are additional duties imposed by Washington under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to address foreign trade practices that are deemed to burden or restrict US commerce.

“While the latest Section 301 tariff measures have added a degree of uncertainty for businesses, the direct impact on Hong Kong exports is expected to be limited,” Pang said.

“A substantial share of Hong Kong’s exports to the US consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements, particularly in the technology and electronics sectors.”

He noted that Hong Kong’s exports to the US had remained resilient, rising by 63.4 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2026.