Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay — Epics, Trilogies and a Wild Dinner Party Could Define the Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change in response to buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions Commentary (Updated: Sept. 18, 2026): More to come.

The list of predictions in all categories can be found here.

The Governors Awards, which will hand out honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, will take place Sunday, Nov. 15. Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist in 12 categories runs Dec. 7-11, with the shortlist announcement to follow Tuesday, Dec. 15. Following the close of the eligibility period on Dec. 31, 2026, nominations voting will run Jan. 11-15, 2027. The official Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027, and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. The ceremony airs live at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide from the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood.