News24 | El Niño could cause 1 200 extra heat deaths in SA by February, data shows

Climate Impact Lab projects 1 200 excess heat-related deaths in South Africa by February 2027.

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• Climate Impact Lab data projects 1 200 additional heat-related deaths in South Africa between September 2026 and February 2027, linked to El Niño.
• Globally, more than 451 000 excess heat deaths are forecast for the first nine months of the event – about 65 times the toll of the recent Nepal flash floods.
• Local health and disaster authorities are urging early protective measures as the SA Weather Service forecasts very high probabilities of above-normal temperatures throughout the summer.

South Africa is projected to see 1 200 additional heat-related deaths between September and February 2027, as the current “super” El Niño pushes temperatures well above normal, with researchers warning that the world is seeing a glimpse of what climate change has in store.

The figure is based on data published by the Climate Impact Lab (CIL), a research consortium backed by the University of Chicago, which places South Africa among the top 50 countries most affected by El Niño-linked heat-related mortality.

The 1 200 deaths represent excess mortality – those above and beyond what South Africa would expect in a normal year – and are projected to result from the elevated temperatures El Niño is forecast to bring.

Globally, the picture is far grimmer, with those 1 200 South African deaths representing a modest fraction of the total projected 451 000 lives that may be lost due to heat during the first nine months (June 2026 to February 2027) of El Niño, compared with the number of deaths in a normal year.

Of those, the additional deaths in South Africa fall within the six-month window from September 2026 to February 2027, during which 239 000 of the total projected deaths are expected.

The heaviest burden falls on the African Sahel, where 66 800 additional heat-related deaths are projected for the period from September 2026 to February 2027.

News24 reported last week that South Africans are just at the start of what will likely be “the mother of all El Niños”, according to Professor Willem Landman, a meteorologist at the University of Pretoria.

Every two to seven years, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms, a phenomenon known as an El Niño event.

“The warming of the Pacific Ocean, over tens of thousands of square kilometres, disrupts the atmospheric circulation patterns of the entire world,” Francois Engelbrecht, distinguished professor of climatology at the Global Change Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand, told News24 in April.

READ | ‘Super’ El Niño could cause 451 000 excess deaths, researchers say

The year 2027 could be the warmest “ever recorded”, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has previously said as the country braces for the “strongest El Niño event in living memory”.

A “strong” El Niño means the sea surface in the tropical Pacific is 1.5°C above normal, averaged over three months.

A “very strong” El Niño means it’s 2°C above normal. The latest forecasts indicate the current event is likely to exceed the 3°C mark – potentially the strongest on record.

Dr Christien Engelbrecht, SAWS’s lead scientist for long-range forecasting, said in the service’s latest seasonal prediction that temperature forecasts for the South African region indicate “very high probabilities for above normal temperatures”.

Rudzani Malala, senior manager for disaster risk reduction at SAWS, said “impact-based weather forecasts and warnings” should be followed closely by the public.