EXPLAINER: El Niño, Nigeria’s next climate test

By mid-morning in many Nigerian cities, traders sit beneath umbrellas, commercial motorcyclists search for shade, and classrooms become increasingly uncomfortable as temperatures rise.

The heat has become a daily topic of conversation, with some attributing it to ozone layer depletion and others wondering whether the weather is becoming unusually extreme.

However, scientists warn of another climate phenomenon that could intensify heat and disrupt weather patterns worldwide: El Niño.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says the phenomenon is strengthening and could become exceptionally intense towards the end of 2026, with consequences extending into 2027.

Meanwhile, a report by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects that Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027.

The estimate raises questions about what El Niño means for Nigerians, whether the projected deaths are inevitable and how individuals and communities can reduce their risks.

Nigeria’s experience with extreme weather

Nigeria is no stranger to climate-related emergencies.

From devastating floods that have displaced communities and destroyed livelihoods to recurring droughts in the north, the country has repeatedly experienced the human and economic costs of extreme weather.

The 2022 floods, which affected millions of people across the country, exposed the vulnerability of homes, farms, roads and essential services.

Nigeria also faces recurring droughts in its northern regions, where prolonged dry spells threaten water availability, agricultural production and livestock.

These experiences provide important context for the latest warning about El Niño. The concern is not that the phenomenon will necessarily reproduce previous disasters, but that it could add to existing climate risks, particularly if extreme heat coincides with unreliable electricity, limited access to safe water and overstretched health services.

For a country already grappling with these challenges, the question is whether lessons from previous emergencies can translate into better preparation for the risks ahead.

What is El Niño?

El Niño, which means “little boy” in Spanish, is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming alters atmospheric circulation and moisture patterns, influencing weather conditions in different parts of the world.

Although it begins in the Pacific Ocean, its effects can be felt globally. Changes in atmospheric circulation can increase the likelihood of unusually high temperatures in some regions, drought in others and heavier rainfall elsewhere.

El Niño is part of a broader climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.

La Niña is associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region of the Pacific, while neutral conditions occur when neither warming nor cooling dominates.

The phenomenon occurs naturally, typically developing every two to seven years. Individual events often last up to 18 months, although their duration and intensity vary.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern and can temporarily amplify global temperatures, adding to the warming already caused by global warming.

The ozone layer is a separate issue. It absorbs much of the sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation, but its depletion does not explain the current El Niño phenomenon.

Why is El Niño attracting attention now?

The current El Niño has attracted global concern because scientists expect it to strengthen significantly in the coming months.

According to the WMO’s latest ENSO update, the phenomenon is firmly established and forecast to strengthen towards the end of 2026 before peaking, with potential impacts extending into early 2027.

The concern has intensified following the publication of the “Climate Impact Lab’s report, 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño.”

The report estimates that 451,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur globally between June 2026 and February 2027 compared with an average year.

Nigeria was identified as one of the countries facing the highest estimated mortality burdens, with 31,400 additional heat-related deaths projected between September 2026 and February 2027.

However, these figures are projections, not a forecast of an inevitable death toll. They estimate the additional deaths that could occur under the anticipated temperature conditions compared with historical averages. The researchers also argue that early intervention could substantially reduce the projected impact.

How could El Niño affect Nigeria?

Although El Niño develops in the Pacific Ocean, previous events have demonstrated that it can influence weather conditions across Africa, including West Africa. However, its effects in Nigeria are not always uniform.

Weather patterns differ across the country’s arid northern states, central savannah regions and humid southern coastline. Consequently, one area may experience unusually dry conditions while another records above-normal rainfall.

Nigeria’s weather is influenced by several interacting systems, including the West African monsoon, conditions over the Atlantic Ocean and regional atmospheric circulation. These factors determine when and where rainfall occurs, how long dry spells last and how temperatures change throughout the year.

El Niño alone does not mean Nigeria will experience a nationwide drought, flooding, or an unprecedented heatwave. Its effects depend on how the phenomenon interacts with local climatic conditions, making national and state-level forecasts essential.

Nevertheless, the projected increase in heat presents a serious concern.

For many Nigerians, prolonged high temperatures could make daily life increasingly difficult, particularly in cities already struggling with unreliable electricity, crowded housing and inadequate urban planning.

Buildings, roads and concrete surfaces absorb heat during the day and release it slowly at night, preventing temperatures from falling significantly after sunset. This can increase heat stress, especially among people who work outdoors or live in poorly ventilated homes.

Extreme heat also increases the risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke. It can also aggravate existing conditions, including cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases.

Agriculture could also face challenges.

Prolonged dry spells may reduce soil moisture, lower crop yields and place additional pressure on livestock and water resources. For households already struggling with high food prices, reduced agricultural production could worsen food insecurity.

Where heavier rainfall occurs, flooding may damage homes, roads and farmland, contaminate water supplies and disrupt access to healthcare and other essential services.

The WMO has emphasised the importance of regional and national forecasts because seasonal outlooks indicate the likelihood of broader conditions rather than predict individual weather events.

Is Nigeria prepared?

The answer is complicated.

Nigeria has laid the groundwork for climate-related health emergencies.

In 2025, the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare published the country’s first Climate Change and Health National Adaptation Plan (2025–2030), which seeks to strengthen disease surveillance, health facilities and emergency preparedness.

The country also has a broader National Adaptation Plan, while the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) issues seasonal forecasts to guide planning.

However, having policies in place does not necessarily mean people are adequately protected when extreme heat strikes. Nigeria’s electricity and healthcare infrastructure reveal some of the gaps.

A 2025 BudgIT assessment of 5,099 primary healthcare facilities found that only about 51 per cent had electricity, while 38 per cent lacked access to water. Shortages of healthcare workers further complicate efforts to respond to increased demand during climate-related emergencies.

These shortcomings become particularly important during prolonged heat.

Electricity helps health facilities maintain essential services and enables households to use fans and other cooling options. Without reliable and affordable power, both healthcare providers and residents have fewer ways to cope with rising temperatures.

A PREMIUM TIMES report published on 18 October titled, ‘Stalled wind farm project in Katsina typifies Nigeria’s struggle to build renewable-energy industry,’ illustrates the wider challenge of turning energy plans into dependable electricity.

The report examined the 10-megawatt Lambar-Rimi wind farm in Katsina State, initiated by the state government in 2005 and taken over by the federal government in 2007.

A contract awarded to French company Vergnet S.A. in 2010 provided for the installation of 37 turbines within 24 months. Although a 2017 government budget implementation report described the project as about 95 per cent complete, the facility remained stalled years later.

The relevance to El Niño is not that the stalled wind farm caused extreme heat, but that it demonstrates the difficulty of delivering the infrastructure needed to help communities withstand its effects. A project can be funded, contracted and declared nearly complete without providing the electricity homes, businesses and health facilities need.

How can Nigerians protect themselves?

Although individuals cannot prevent El Niño, they can take practical steps to reduce their exposure to extreme heat and other weather-related hazards.

During periods of high temperatures, people should drink water regularly, wear lightweight clothing and seek shade or a cool, well-ventilated place whenever possible. Where work arrangements permit, strenuous outdoor activities should be reduced during the hottest parts of the day.

Employers should also provide access to drinking water, rest breaks and shade for workers exposed to prolonged heat. Families should pay particular attention to children, older relatives and people who may struggle to recognise or respond to heat-related illness.

Headaches, dizziness, weakness and nausea may indicate heat exhaustion. Confusion, seizures or loss of consciousness following heat exposure can signal heatstroke, a medical emergency requiring immediate medical assistance.

Where water shortages occur, households should store drinking water in clean, covered containers and follow public health advice on making unsafe water safe to drink. Water conservation is important, but it should not come at the expense of drinking, food preparation and basic hygiene.

In areas where heavy rainfall or flooding is forecast, residents should pay attention to official warnings, keep drainage channels clear where it is safe to do so and avoid walking or driving through floodwater. Floodwater may conceal open drains and other hazards, and it may be contaminated. People should move to safer locations when authorities advise evacuation.

Households can also prepare for severe weather by keeping essential medicines, emergency contact details, important documents and charged mobile phones accessible. Residents should report dangerous conditions to the appropriate authorities and avoid relying on unverified social media messages for information about imminent hazards.

Most importantly, Nigerians should follow local forecasts rather than interpret a global El Niño warning as a prediction that every community will face the same conditions.