FIVE polls spell disaster for ANC in Durban

The ANC faces a crushing defeat in Durban, with five election polls placing Jacob Zuma’s MK Party ahead in eThekwini just days before South Africans head to the polls.

The latest eNCA/MarkData survey puts MK at 48%, leaving the ANC trailing in third place with just 14.5% support.

The DA follows MK at 25.2%, while the IFP sits at 6%.

The findings, released on Sunday, 25 October, suggest Zuma’s party could take control of KwaZulu-Natal’s biggest municipality after the 4 November elections.

FIVE POLLS SPELL TROUBLE FOR ANC

The eNCA findings are not an isolated warning.

Four other surveys conducted in recent months also place MK ahead of the ANC in eThekwini.

A Social Research Foundation (SRF) survey, published by The Common Sense on 19 October, gave MK 43% support, followed by the DA at 28% and the ANC at 13%.

A News24/SABI Strategy Group poll painted a similar picture, putting MK at approximately 43%, the DA at 30% and the ANC at just 11%.

Ipsos recorded an even bigger lead for Zuma’s party in September. Its survey, conducted between June and July, placed MK at 55% among registered voters who expressed a party preference.

The ANC managed just 10%, while the DA secured 17%.

An earlier SRF survey, conducted in July, gave MK 33%, the DA 23% and the ANC 18%.

Despite differences in the figures, all five polls point to the same outcome: MK could emerge as Durban’s biggest party, while the ANC faces another bruising election.

ANC SUPPORT TAKES A KNOCK

The numbers mark a dramatic shift from the 2021 municipal elections, when the ANC secured 42.02% of the vote in eThekwini.

The latest eNCA poll places the party almost 28 percentage points below that result.

MK, meanwhile, looks set to build on its 2024 general election breakthrough, when it overtook the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.

The ANC lost its outright majority in the eThekwini council in 2021 but retained control of the municipality with support from other parties.

Now, it risks losing that control altogether.

WATER CRISIS HITS ANC HARD

Service delivery failures appear to be driving voter frustration.

The eNCA/MarkData survey found that 74.6% of eThekwini respondents blamed the ANC for problems affecting South Africa’s major cities.

Another 62.7% wanted a different mayor and governing majority over the municipality’s handling of water shortages.

A further 58.6% called for new leadership over the response to flood damage.

The findings pile pressure on eThekwini mayor Cyril Xaba as the ANC fights to hold on to power.

WILL ZUMA’S MK PARTY TAKE DURBAN?

Despite its commanding lead, MK still faces a battle to secure an outright majority.

The eNCA/MarkData survey questioned 1 039 respondents in eThekwini and carries a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.

The other polls used different methods and surveyed voters at different stages of the election campaign.

Voter turnout and possible coalition agreements could ultimately decide who governs Durban.

But with the ANC polling between 10% and 18% across the five surveys, the party faces an uphill battle to reverse its fortunes before election day on Wednesday, 4 November.