Hypothetical tandem of Sara Duterte-Robin Padilla leads over Leni Robredo-Bam Aquino, says OCTA Research

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The hypothetical tandem of Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Robin Padilla would take the lead over Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Bam Aquino but with a smaller margin, according to key findings from the Tugon ng Masa (TNM) nationwide survey.

The non-commissioned, independent and non-partisan poll conducted regularly by OCTA Research showed that the Duterte–Padilla team leads with 48% over the Robredo-Aquino tandem with 36% nationally by 12 points, with 16% still undecided.

This is the narrowest gap recorded between the two tandems to date, according to the survey.

"In previous commissioned surveys conducted in 2025, the gap between the tandem of VP Sara Duterte–Sen. Robin Padilla and the tandem of VP Leni Robredo Sen. Bam Aquino had ranged from approximately 20 to 25 points, indicating a narrowing trend heading into 2028," it added.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from July 4 to 11, 2026, using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 male and female probability respondents aged 18 and above were interviewed for the study. This survey has a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level nationally.

"Subnational estimates have a margin of error of ±6% at a 95% confidence level for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao," OCTA Research said. — BAP, GMA News