Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates

SYDNEY: Australia forecast on Monday (Sep 21) that deaths would exceed births for the first time in the 2060s, a demographic shift with far-reaching implications for an economy grappling with an ageing population, declining births and cuts to immigration.

For decades, Australia has sustained population growth by relying on immigration to offset low birth rates. But with immigration now slowing, the country is starting to look down a path already taken by many advanced economies including Japan, Germany and South Korea, where deaths have already outnumbered births.

In an Intergenerational Report published on Monday, the Treasury department identified AI, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, ageing population and a shift to a service-based economy as the five most consequential transformations facing the country's economic outlook over the next four decades.

It now expects population growth to slow to 0.9 per cent a year over the next four decades as fertility rates decline and net overseas migration – the difference between the number of incoming migrants and people leaving the country – continues to fall before stabilising. That is down from an average of 1.4 per cent rise over the past 40 years.

"Australia's population will age more quickly and grow more slowly than projected," Treasury said in the report. 

"Deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s – the first time this has been forecast in an IGR – at which point natural increase will no longer be a driver of population growth."

The left-leaning Labor government tightened immigration rules last week, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to fend off a surge in support for the right-wing populist One Nation party that has pledged to sharply curb immigration.

Albanese's approval rating slipped this week to its lowest level since he became prime minister in 2022.

The report also warned an ageing population would boost demand in the care services, with regions with older populations facing greater labour shortages in healthcare and aged care, sectors that rely heavily on migrant workers.

The report also flagged tax cuts in future budgets as Labor doles out more cost-of-living relief to Australians grappling with elevated inflation, higher mortgage rates, and expensive housing.