Grading NFL trades: Who won the McCarthy deal, Giants or Vikings?

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  Seth WalderSep 28, 2026, 01:30 PM ET

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  Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

Let's grade deals ahead of the 2026 NFL trade deadline, which will pass on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 4 p.m. ET.

When grading trades, I evaluate them for each team based on on-field impact, cap implications, draft compensation and effects within the context of a team's overall short- and long-term outlooks. How confident are we in knowing if this is a good or bad decision? And how big is the impact of this decision? Both questions play a role in our grades, though a low-impact decision can still receive a strong or poor grade. Even with lower stakes, clear-cut wins or losses still matter.

Here's my take and evaluation of the J.J. McCarthy deal that kicked off trading season. Check back right through the deadline for grades on the biggest moves.

Vikings send QB McCarthy to Giants

Giants get: QB J.J. McCarthy
Vikings get: 2027 fifth-round pick

Giants grade: C
Vikings grade: B+

A mere 22 days after the Giants signed Jameis Winston to a two-year, $13 million extension, New York decided it needed to trade a fifth-round pick for an alternative at quarterback. Of course, a lot has happened in three weeks.

Starting quarterback Jaxson Dart suffered a knee injury in Week 2 that is expected to keep him out for at least the regular season. And Winston has delivered two poor performances in Dart's stead, with a 19.0 QBR in relief in Week 2 against the Rams and a 27.9 in Sunday's 12-7 win over the Titans. So in comes McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft.

McCarthy's pro career has gone poorly so far, which is putting it mildly. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in August 2024, which helped Sam Darnold become Minnesota's starting quarterback. McCarthy was named the starter last season after Darnold departed in free agency but started only 10 games after a series of injuries cost him time. And when he was on the field, the results were not good.

McCarthy posted a 36.1 QBR in 2025 (which ranked 38th out of 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts) and recorded a minus-5% pass rate over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats (43rd out of 45). He threw interceptions at a 4.2% clip (44th), took sacks on 9.4% of dropbacks (40th) and had a 1.8% fumble rate (41st). More alarming is that he did all that while playing for Kevin O'Connell, who has seemingly elevated most of the non-McCarthy quarterbacks he has called plays for.

During training camp, not only did McCarthy lose the Vikings' starting quarterback competition to Kyler Murray, but he then lost the backup competition to Carson Wentz, too. That is a telling red flag.

So why would the Giants trade for him? McCarthy presumably still has some upside based on his draft pedigree, and the Giants are hoping they can profit from him realizing it. But it's hard not to notice the fact that this is John Harbaugh trading for the quarterback his brother, Jim Harbaugh, coached in college at Michigan.

It is difficult to know from the outside which other backup quarterbacks would have been available, but McCarthy still does not seem like an ideal choice. Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler ought to have been the team's first calls (maybe they were). Kirk Cousins probably is off the board with the Raiders sitting at 3-0. Mitchell Trubisky might have been available, considering this already looks like a lost season for Tennessee. And I'm assuming Gardner Minshew II surely must be available, considering he sits in veteran no-man's land between Jacoby Brissett and rookie Carson Beck in Arizona. Stetson Bennett IV could have been an option, too, after the Rams selected Ty Simpson in the first round of this year's draft. I'll grant that some of those options have less upside than McCarthy.

But the Giants' front office should look in the mirror over its bungling of the Winston situation. It's not unreasonable for the Giants to be aggressive in finding a better replacement given how much time is left in the season. But they clearly shouldn't have signed Winston to an extension right before the season if this is how they feel about him!

Even though Murray is a free agent at the end of this season, McCarthy's ship had already sailed in Minnesota after he couldn't beat out Wentz. If he wasn't going to be the Vikings' backup quarterback, his value would likely have continued to drop. To get a fifth-round pick while saving a few million across his remaining 2026 and 2027 compensation (not nothing!) makes sense. They have uncertainty at quarterback in 2027, yes. But that was true whether McCarthy was there or not.