Will Eby's early election gamble pay off or backfire in B.C.? Here's what history tells us

On the whole, premiers and prime ministers have benefited from similar gambles in the past. But for others a decision to test the electorate ahead of schedule massively backfired. Here are some examples of both.

Move worked for some, including Eby's predecessor — but it's gone terribly for others

Darren Major · CBC News

· Posted: Sep 24, 2026 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 15 minutes ago

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With the B.C. Conservatives in disarray, David Eby decided to roll the dice and call an election two years ahead of schedule in the hopes of extending his mandate.

The NDP leader cited the "existential" threat of U.S. President Donald Trump as his reasoning for sending voters to the polls on Oct. 24.

"We have big decisions to make as a province. And British Columbians, you deserve a say in the direction that we choose," he said in a news conference on Tuesday.

But opposition parties criticized Eby's decision. B.C. Conservative interim Leader Lorne Doerkson characterized it as a "cheap, opportunistic political move," while Green Party Leader Emily Lowan called it an unnecessary decision that would bring "yet more instability."

On the whole, premiers and prime ministers have benefited from similar gambles in the past. But for others, a decision to test the electorate ahead of schedule massively backfired.

WATCH | Eby criticizes 'chaos' of B.C. opposition parties after calling snap election:

Eby criticizes 'chaos' of B.C. opposition parties after calling snap election

September 22|

Duration

2:15

After calling an early election on Tuesday, B.C. NDP Leader David Eby said the Oct. 24 vote offers British Columbians a choice between his government's efforts to resist U.S. economic pressure and opponents he accused of wanting 'to import the MAGA-style politics, the chaos of Donald Trump.’

The winners

When making his decision, Eby might have been considering his predecessor John Horgan.

Horgan and the B.C. NDP formed a minority government — thanks to a supply and confidence agreement with the Greens — after the 2017 election. The then premier rode a wave of popularity from his government's handling of the pandemic to a majority in a snap election in the fall of 2020.

Horgan wasn't the only premier to gamble with an early election call at the height of the pandemic. New Brunswick's Blaine Higgs took his Progressive Conservatives from a minority to a majority in the same year.

Higgs touted the importance of stability when he pitched himself to voters only two years after becoming premier.

WATCH | Ford calls 2025 Ontario election:

Ford officially announces plan to call early Ontario election

January 24, 2025|

Duration

1:10

After months of speculation, Ontario Premier Doug Ford confirmed he will call an election next Wednesday, sending voters to the polls more than a year ahead of schedule.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford called an early election using a similar line to Eby in 2025, saying he needed a strong mandate to address Trump and his tariff war. Ford would win a historic third majority government, even though he called the election more than a year ahead of schedule.

Ford isn't the only premier to cite economic upheaval to call a snap election. Former Quebec premier Jean Charest cited the 2008 financial crisis as a reason for going to the polls just over a year after winning the 2007 election.

The gamble paid off for Charest, whose Liberals went from a minority to a majority government.

WATCH | A look at the 2000 federal election:

A '3-peat' for Chrétien and the Liberals in 2000 federal election

November 27, 2000|

Duration

2:52

Chrétien gambles on another snap election and wins his third consecutive majority.

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien twice called early elections during his tenure, but it was his second gamble that was seen as a major payoff.

Chrétien called a vote in 2000 when polls indicated the Liberals had a sizable lead in Ontario. The Canadian Alliance, created out of the Reform Party in an effort to appeal to voters outside of Western Canada, had only selected Stockwell Day as its leader a few months before.

The Liberals would expand their majority government in the 2000 vote, winning 100 out of 103 seats in Ontario while making gains in Quebec. The Alliance only won two seats in Ontario.

A bust

Despite governing parties having the advantage of calling an election if they think they have a leg up on the opposition parties, there are examples of voters punishing politicians when they make such a move.

Former Ontario premier David Peterson was riding high in the polls in 1990 when he decided to call a summertime election, only three years after winning a majority.

But his popularity hit a downward spiral during the campaign. Although Peterson's Liberals came only five points behind the NDP in the popular vote, Bob Rae won a majority government, becoming the province's first (and only) New Democrat premier.

WATCH | NDP wins in Ontario:

Astonishing victory for the Ontario NDP in 1990

September 6, 1990|

Duration

5:55

Even Bob Rae himself has a hard time believing he's premier in Ontario's first-ever NDP government. Aired Sept. 6, 1990 on a CBC Television news special.

Jim Prentice called an early vote when he was premier of Alberta in 2015. Prentice had taken over leadership of the governing Progressive Conservatives less than a year earlier and cited a need for a new mandate to pass his budgetary changes.

But there was also speculation that Prentice had an incentive to go to the polls early with the Official Opposition Wildrose Party in a bit of disarray. Prentice had coaxed eight Wildrose MLAs — including Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, now premier — near the end of 2014.

Like in Ontario in 1990, the NDP took advantage of the early vote and formed a majority government. The Wildrose became Official Opposition again and the PCs were relegated to third.

Quebec is in a bit of a unique position, having two different governments tossed out after two subsequent early election calls.

WATCH | Pauline Marois concedes:

Pauline Marois' concession speech

April 8, 2014|

Duration

8:40

Pauline Marois loses her seat and resigns as PQ leader

After securing a majority in 2008, Charest legally could have governed until late 2013. (The province only passed a fixed election date law limiting votes to every four years in 2013.)

But the then-premier decided to send voters to the polls in the summer of 2012 on the heels of an emotional and divisive student tuition protests that shook the province that spring.

Pauline Marois and the Parti Québécois won a minority government, beating Charest's Liberals by just four seats.

Less than two years later, Marois called another election with her eyes set on a majority. Instead, voters backed the Liberals again, this time under Philippe Couillard.

A wash

There are a handful of examples of prime ministers calling early elections and holding on to government, with results short of a resounding endorsement.

Justin Trudeau led a minority government throughout the first year of the pandemic. But he decided to call an early election in 2021, potentially after seeing Higgs and Horgan winning majorities the year before.

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole tried to punish Trudeau for calling the "unwanted and unnecessary election."

The polls showed the Conservatives had a chance of unseating the Liberals early in the campaign. But on election day the voters picked a House of Commons that looked nearly identical to the one from the 2019 vote.

WATCH | Chrétien hangs on to majority:

Chrétien's razor thin majority in 1997 federal election

June 2, 1997|

Duration

4:07

Voters hand the Liberals a second, considerably smaller, victory.

Stephen Harper refused to speak of a potential majority during the 2008 campaign, one that he decided to call after two years of governing in a minority. But he repeatedly asked Canadians to give his party a "strong mandate" to address what he described as an unworkable Parliament.

Harper's Conservatives won a stronger minority, although polls early in the campaign suggested they had a chance at forming a majority.

Chrétien's first early election call was in 1997, only three-and-a-half years after he first formed government. It was at the time the shortest turnaround for a majority government since 1911.

The Liberals held on to a majority, but only by a handful of seats. Chrétien won his own seat by fewer than 2,000 votes — the only time as prime minister that he failed to secure more than 50 per cent in his own riding.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Darren Major is a senior writer for CBC's parliamentary bureau in Ottawa. He previously worked as a digital reporter for CBC Ottawa and a producer for CBC's Power & Politics. He holds a master's degree in journalism and a bachelor's degree in public affairs and policy management, both from Carleton University. He also holds a master's degree in arts from Queen's University. He can be reached at darren.major@cbc.ca.