DOE sees P8 diesel price rollback by end-September

Motorists queue at a gas station in Paco, Manila on Monday to refuel ahead of an expected fuel price rollback on April 14, 2026.

The Philippine STAR / Ryan Baldemor

MANILA, Philippines — After three consecutive weeks of steep price hikes, diesel prices are expected to see a rollback of as much as P8 per liter by the end of September, the Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday, September 25.

Kerosene is also expected to go down by P6 per liter, while the P0.90 per liter cut on gasoline is not yet certain.

DOE’s Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rino Abad said the estimated price adjustments are based on the movements of global oil prices in the first four trading days. 

“Mataas pa rin ang tyansa ho talaga natin na rollback tayo sa diesel and kerosene. Sa gasolina, hindi ho tayo pa sigurado. Hintayin ho natin ‘yung Friday trading,” Abad said in an interview with dzMM.

(Chances of having a rollback on diesel and kerosene remain high. On gasoline, we’re not yet sure. Let us wait for the Friday trading.)

Easing global prices

In a separate interview with dzBB on Friday, Abad said the potential decrease on local pump prices is brought by the easing movement in the global market as Saudi Arabia announced partial resumption of their oil export operations. 

“This week, announced by Saudi, na makakabalik na ‘yung 40% ng kanilang resumption of the export,” Abad said. “Kumalma ‘yung market dahil nabalik ulit ang export galing ng Persian Gulf. At alam naman natin na ang kliyente ng Saudi is Asia Pacific.”

(This week, Saudi Arabia announced that 40% of its operations will resume. The market eased because exports from the Persian Gulf were brought back. And we know that Saudi’s client is Asia Pacific.)

In the last three weeks, local oil and fuel prices went up after the escalation of tensions in the Red Sea, and the reported damages on Saudi Arabia’s 1,200-kilometer pipeline that led to its temporary shutdown. 

The damage affected the transport of crude oil in Yanbu on the Red Sea, which gives Saudi Arabia an alternative route to export oil without going through the Strait of Hormuz. Without this route, Saudi Arabia has fewer options to send crude to the international markets.

The Hormuz Strait remains heavily affected by the ongoing conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran. 

PH bears ME conflict impacts

The Philippines, meanwhile, bears the impact of tensions as it imports 98% of its oil supply from the Middle East.

This week, the transport sector has renewed its calls for implementing a fare increase, but the government says it is considered a ‘last resort’ to avoid passing on the burden to commuters.

The Department of Finance, meanwhile, has signed a resolution recommending the excise tax relief on liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene, but left out diesel and gasoline over concerns of losing P12 billion per month in government revenues.

The excise tax suspension is yet to reach President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who can either approve or disapprove the recommendation.