Mexico’s exports soar on AI-driven electronics demand, but oil deficit continues to grow

The value of Mexico’s exports increased almost 40% year over year in September and rose more than 30% in the first nine months of 2026, according to data published on Tuesday by the national statistics agency INEGI.

Mexico’s exports were worth US $77.79 billion in September, an increase of 37.9% compared to the same month of last year. It was Mexico’s third-highest monthly export total on record, after July and August of this year.

In the first nine months of 2026, Mexico’s exports were worth $627.19 billion, an increase of 30.4% compared to the same period of 2025. The value of Mexico’s exports in the January-September period was just $37.6 billion less than the total for all of 2025, which was a record high of $664.8 billion.

It is practically guaranteed that the value of Mexico’s exports will exceed the 2025 total in the January-October period of 2026.

INEGI’s latest trade data also shows that Mexico’s outlay on imports in the first nine months of the year increased 27.5% compared to the same period of 2025 to reach $617.94 billion.

Consequently, Mexico recorded a trade surplus of $9.25 billion between January and September. Mexico is thus on track to record a trade surplus for a second consecutive year after recording deficits between 2021 and 2024.

Mexico’s strong export growth in 2026 has been driven by a surge in sales of non-automotive manufactured goods — especially computer and electronic equipment — to the United States, where an AI-driven data center boom is underway.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s oil exports have declined this year and its petroleum imports have increased significantly, putting the country on track to record its largest ever petroleum deficit (see below).

Non-auto exports surge 53% in September, rise 46% so far this year 

Manufactured goods accounted for 93.5% of the total value of Mexico’s exports in September.

The full breakdown of INEGI’s export data for September — including year-over-year increases — is as follows:

• Exports of manufactured goods were worth $72.77 billion, an increase of 39%.
• Exports of non-automotive manufactured goods were worth $56.34 billion, an increase of 53%. Within that category, Mexico’s exports of electric and electronic equipment and devices increased 94.7%.
• Exports of manufactured automotive goods (including vehicles) were worth $16.43 billion, an increase of 5.7%.
• Mining sector exports were worth $1.93 billion, an increase of 66.8%.
• Petroleum exports were worth $1.8 billion, an increase of 9.6%.
• Agricultural exports were worth $1.28 billion, an increase of 4.6%.

The full breakdown of INEGI’s export data for the first nine months of 2026 is as follows:

• Exports of manufactured goods were worth $578.59 billion, an increase of 31.7%.
• Exports of non-automotive manufactured goods were worth $436.64 billion, an increase of 46%.
• Exports of manufactured automotive goods were worth $141.96 billion, an increase of 1.3%.
• Mining sector exports were worth $16.6 billion, an increase of 74.1%.
• Petroleum exports were worth $16.35 billion, a decline of 0.2%.
• Agricultural exports were worth $15.64 billion, a decline of 2.4%.

Spending on imports on track to set a new record in 2026

Mexico imported goods worth $78.4 billion in September, an increase of 33.1% compared to the same month of last year. Spending on imports in the first nine months of the year — $617.94 billion — was just $46 billion less than Mexico’s total outlay in 2025, which was a record high of $664.06 billion.

Data on imports in the first 10 months of 2026 will almost certainly show that Mexico’s spending in that period exceeded the record set last year.

The full breakdown of INEGI’s import data for the first nine months of 2026 — including year-over-year increases — is as follows:

• Imported non-petroleum goods were worth $575.9 billion, an increase of 28.2%.
• Imported petroleum products were worth $42.03 billion, an increase of 19.4%.
• Imported intermediate goods (including non-petroleum and petroleum products) were worth $497.04 billion, an increase of 33.4%.
• Imported consumer goods (including non-petroleum and petroleum products) were worth $77.14 billion, an increase of 9.9%.
• Imported capital goods were worth $43.76 billion, an increase of 4.8%.

Mexico’s oil trade deficit exceeds $25 billion 

As noted above, Mexico’s oil exports were worth $16.35 billion in the first nine months of 2026, a year-over-year decline of 0.2%. In the same period, Mexico imported petroleum products worth $42.03 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.4%.

Consequently, Mexico recorded an oil trade deficit of $25.68 billion between January and September. That amount is higher than the $25.55 billion oil deficit Mexico recorded in 2025.

If Mexico’s oil deficit continues to increase in the final three months of 2026, as expected, it will record its highest oil deficit on record.

INEGI’s data indicates that Mexico is still a long way off achieving its goal of self-sufficiency for fuel, including gasoline. The country’s outlay on petroleum-based consumer goods — i.e., fuel — in the first nine months of 2026 increased 27.7% year over year to reach $14.04 billion.

The energy-focused publication Factor Energético reported that the increase in imports of petroleum-based consumer goods “warrants special attention due to its potential impact on supply and the domestic market’s exposure to international prices.”

Mexico spent $27.99 billion on petroleum-based intermediate goods between January and September, a year-over-year increase of 15.7%.

With reports from El Economista, Expansión and Factor Energético