China’s export boom creates a difficult bargain for Southeast Asia

China’s export machine is accelerating as its domestic economy remains under strain. This comes amid growing trade friction as China’s partners question whether persistent surpluses can coexist with balanced and resilient regional growth.

Last month, China’s exports rose 36.3 per cent year on year, while shipments to Southeast Asia jumped 52.3 per cent. The trade surplus reached US$133.5 billion, taking the nine-month total to US$938.1 billion.

In contrast, retail sales grew just 0.4 per cent in August, according to the latest official figures. For the first eight months, fixed-asset investment dropped 7.2 per cent while property investment plunged 19.9 per cent. Yet industrial production for August rose 5.2 per cent.

These figures do not prove that exports alone explain China’s resilience or that every factory is overproducing. But they reveal how external demand sustains production while domestic demand remains uneven.