Who holds the gavel? COP31's unusual Australia-Türkiye deal

AUSTRALIA and Turkiye are co-hosting the 31th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) next month but the highly-unusual decision to share leadership has raised questions about how the climate summit will unfold —and who holds the power.

Both countries had fought to host the high-profile event, forcing a compromise under which Turkiye would stage COP31 but Australia would run the formal negotiations.

The two delegations insist they are working closely together and have pledged steady and predictable leadership at the summit starting Nov 9 in the Turkish city of Antalya.

But the dual-presidency model "has no precedent" at United Nations climate summits and its success is not guaranteed, said Anna Perez Catala from the Paris-based policy think tank IDDRI.

It "aims to showcase countries can work together even in difficult times, but could bring disagreements", she said.

The climate summits rotate between regional blocs, with the host normally selected by consensus after consultation among members of the relevant group.

Australia and Turkiye arrived at last year's COP in Brazil as rival bidders for the 2026 summit and a diplomatic stalemate ensued when neither would withdraw from the race.

Australia's bid enjoyed wider support but Turkiye did not relent, arguing it could bridge industrialised and developing nations and highlighting ample, affordable hotel capacity in Antalya.

After extensive closed-door talks, a compromise was reached: Turkiye would be COP31 president, host the summit and world leaders in Antalya, and design the "action agenda" that runs alongside the formal talks.

Australia's Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen was named "president of negotiations" and granted "exclusive authority" of the negotiations.

Additionally, pre-COP meetings are being held in Fiji and Tuvalu this week in a nod to Australia's original desire for the summit to have a Pacific focus.

The compromise resolved the hosting deadlock — but questions over the specifics soon emerged.

In April, when asked if he would have a role in the negotiations, incoming COP31 president Murat Kurum said Turkiye would "play a role anywhere, everywhere, because Turkiye is the COP31 president".

"At the end of the day, the decisions will be taken by the COP31 presidency," said Kurum, who is also Turkiye's environment minister.

In June, Bowen acknowledged there was some nervousness over the unique arrangement but said concerns were misplaced.

"I do understand because it's a new thing. But what we're doing actually has a lot of benefits and potential," he said in Bonn, Germany, during the mid-year UN climate sessions.

When asked who would bring down the final gavel at COP31, Bowen replied: "Kurum and I... Together."

Yet last month, when asked again to clarify this situation, Kurum stressed: "Turkiye is not co-chairing COP31 with Australia."

"In conducting those negotiations, Australia will work in consultation with the COP31 presidency, and ultimately the final decision rests with the COP31 presidency," he said.

Kurum and Bowen insist the arrangement is working smoothly, calling each other good friends and joshing about football when their national sides competed in this year's World Cup.

"We are genuinely working in harmony with Australia and our friends there... We have not experienced any problem so far, and we do not expect to encounter any in the future," said Kurum last month.

But it remains to be seen whether the novel arrangement works out.

"Historically, when there has been a lack of clarity of process or roles of presidencies at the COPs, it has diverted attention from the work at hand," said Germany's former climate envoy Jennifer Morgan.

The summit comes at a fragile moment for climate diplomacy: energy security concerns are high on the political agenda, trust in multilateral institutions is under pressure, and nations remain divided over tougher action on planet-heating fossil fuels.

A French government official said there was a "clear division of roles" between the two countries: "It's a new approach, so we'll see how it works in practice."

The writers are from AFP