Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 2: How far does Ohio State fall?

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Texas coach Steve Sarkisian desperately needed that home win against Ohio State -- not just for himself and the program but for an early lead in the College Football Playoff race.

The Longhorns beat the Buckeyes for the first time in three tries over the past three seasons, and while it was a validation of sorts for Sarkisian and his quarterback, Arch Manning, it also was the first real statement about how seriously to take Texas this season as a national title contender.

The answer? As the leading contender, at least for now.

Texas became the first FBS team since at least 2004 with a 20-point comeback win against an AP No. 1 opponent. (Teams were 0-188 when faced with a 20-point deficit entering Saturday, according to ESPN Research.) While selection committee members will ultimately reward Texas for its second-half rally, Ohio State coach Ryan Day said his team has to "own everything" for its fourth-quarter collapse.

So, how far do the Buckeyes fall?

Spoiler alert: not as far as Oregon.

Separation has begun -- and it's only Week 2. Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were released today.

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Projecting the top 12

1. Texas Longhorns (2-0)

Why they could be here: The Longhorns easily have the best win in the country now -- and that's a label that will last as long as Ohio State looks like a top-five team. Texas scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, and quarterback Arch Manning overcame a mistake-filled first half to earn what should be the most impressive nonconference win of the season.

Why they could be lower: Not after that.

Need to know: Ohio State can still capture the Big Ten title, which means this victory can become even more valuable for Texas in the committee meeting room, provided the Longhorns can claim it against the eventual Big Ten champs. The head-to-head win also could come into play during the seeding process, and if Texas can hang onto the No. 1 spot, it could be an advantage on Selection Day. This year, the top seed gets to choose its quarterfinal location.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. ESPN's FPI projects Texas will win each of its remaining games, but entering Saturday, the Longhorns had a 60.6% chance to win in Death Valley.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-1)

Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn't just load the top of its ranking with undefeated teams; it never has. A one-point loss on the road to what likely would be its No. 1 team at this time is hardly an indictment in the room. Each team owned a half. Both teams have multiple Heisman Trophy contenders. The game came down to the wire.

Why they could be lower: It's hard to imagine the committee dropping Ohio State any further, but Miami has been one of the most dominant and complete teams against unranked opponents.

Need to know: This game didn't knock Texas out of the playoff last year, and it won't hurt Ohio State, but the Buckeyes now have less margin for error. Texas missed the CFP last year because it lost to what was a bad Florida team, and the Longhorns played poorly against two subpar teams in Mississippi State and Kentucky, needing overtime to beat each. Ohio State has a midseason stretch that includes back-to-back trips to Indiana and USC right before the committee meets for the first time, followed by a home game against Oregon. That span is where Ohio State's season will be defined.

Toughest remaining test: Oct. 17 at Indiana. The game at USC -- logistically and from a game standpoint -- will be a challenge, but Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers already have beaten the Buckeyes when it mattered the most.

3. Miami Hurricanes (2-0)

Why they could be here: Miami isn't just passing the eye test; it looks like a national title contender. Miami hasn't played down to its competition, beating Stanford on the road and FCS Florida A&M at home by a combined 122-13 margin. Last year, the selection committee couldn't ignore Indiana because of how consistently it won convincingly -- no matter whom the Hoosiers played. While Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal drew some outside criticism for what many perceived as running up the score against Florida A&M, a total of 93 players saw the field, and nobody on offense or defense played even half the total snaps. That's a detail that likely would be discussed in the room if the group met today.

Why they could be lower: Stanford's roster was depleted by injuries, and the committee doesn't look fondly on lopsided wins against FCS opponents. The Rattlers are now 0-14 all-time against AP-ranked opponents -- and nine of those losses were to Miami.

Need to know: Miami's remaining schedule strength is currently ranked No. 39 in the country, which the committee members will respect. How well Clemson and North Carolina fare this season will ultimately impact Miami's résumé, as away wins against those teams could become valuable.

Toughest remaining test: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. This is the only game on the schedule ESPN's FPI doesn't project the Canes to win, giving the Fighting Irish a 62.4% chance at home.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0)

Why they could be here: Notre Dame followed the script and blanked Rice 52-0, handing the Owls their worst loss since 2021. It was a complete performance, and while it was against a severely overmatched opponent, it was a chance for the Irish to show some improvement from a first half against Wisconsin that raised some questions.

Why they could be higher: Some committee members could view Notre Dame's win against Wisconsin in Lambeau as better than Miami's cross-country win against Stanford.

Need to know: Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country (30.9%) to win out.

Toughest remaining test: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. Notre Dame's Oct. 17 trip to BYU is going to be extremely challenging, as BYU looked impressive on Saturday in its win against Arizona. There's recent history with Miami, though, that raises the playoff stakes for both teams.

5. LSU Tigers (2-0)

Why they could be here: The Tigers avoided a first-half scare against Louisiana Tech, and the season opening win against Clemson is still better than both of Georgia's opponents. Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw three interceptions against La Tech, though, and LSU was caught sleeping early in the first half as it clung to a 10-7 lead. Defensively, LSU smothered Louisiana Tech, and the Tigers dominated just about every statistical category -- except turnovers.

Why they could be lower: The difference in quarterback play on Saturday between LSU and Georgia was stark, with Georgia's Gunner Stockton tying a school record by throwing five touchdowns in less than a half while Leavitt almost had that many turnovers.

Need to know: Saturday's game at Ole Miss will be the only road trip for LSU until Oct. 10 against Kentucky. Four of the first five games are at home.

Toughest remaining test: Nov. 14 vs. Texas. Saturday's trip to Oxford won't be easy, and the Tigers get the Longhorns at home, but LSU will already have played Texas A&M and Alabama. The Tigers' margin for error might be gone by mid-November.

6. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0)

Why they could be here: Georgia and quarterback Gunner Stockton are quietly starting the season in championship-caliber form against unheralded opponents. For the second straight week, the Bulldogs scored at least 60 points, and the defense has allowed just 23 total. Western Kentucky is now an 0-2 C-USA team and Tennessee State is FCS level -- factors the committee would consider knowing every team ranked above Georgia here played a Power 4 opponent.

Why they could be higher: Eye test. This Georgia team looks good, and Stockton has thrown eight touchdown passes and no interceptions in two games. He hasn't played more than the first half.

Need to know: Georgia entered Saturday with the second-best chance to win the SEC (18.6%) behind Texas.

Toughest remaining test: Oct. 10 at Alabama. ESPN's FPI gives Georgia at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, but the trip to Tuscaloosa is the lowest at 51.2%.

7. Ole Miss Rebels (2-0)

Why they could be here: The Week 1 win against Louisville is what's keeping the Rebels ahead of the Hoosiers right now -- not Saturday's win against Charlotte. A nonconference win against a Power 4 contender could continue to help the Rebels' résumé in the committee meeting room. The duo of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy impressed the committee last year, and they're doing it again.

Why they could be lower: Indiana has been more dominant, albeit against far weaker competition. Ole Miss didn't have a flawless performance in the opener against Louisville, as Chambliss fumbled and threw an interception early. The committee would acknowledge, though, that it was the season opener and the Rebels found a way to win.

Need to know: Ole Miss entered Saturday ranked No. 24 in ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric, a significant edge over No. 72 Indiana, which illustrates the value of the Louisville win in the committee meeting room.

Toughest remaining test: Nov. 7 vs. Georgia. There's no shortage of options here, as Ole Miss has the 10th toughest remaining schedule in the country, but this could be a must-win game, depending on what happens against LSU and Texas.

8. Indiana Hoosiers (2-0)

Why they could be here: Ole Miss' win against Louisville is a better win than than both of IU's lopsided victories.The Hoosiers have scored at least 50 points in each of their first two games against underwhelming opponents, and the selection committee will recognize the talent, but would also likely hold them back at this point because of the weaker competition. The group would know, though, that North Texas under first-year coach Neal Brown is one of the better Group of 6 teams and illustrated that in Saturday's win against UNLV.

Why they could be higher: Coach Curt Cignetti has built some clout, and in the past the Hoosiers' sheer domination has helped outweigh its weak schedule in the committee meeting room. Cignetti is still unbeaten in Memorial Stadium, and while Saturday's win was against FCS Howard -- which hasn't beaten an FBS opponent since 2017 -- Indiana cleaned up some concerns from a week ago against North Texas.

Need to know: IU's schedule to this point is ranked No. 72 in the country, and its remaining schedule is No. 102.

Toughest remaining test: Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. The Hoosiers won't play a ranked opponent before facing the Buckeyes, and it's unlikely they'll really be tested before then. Ohio State, though, has already faced a top-five opponent.

9. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)

Why they could be here: The Tide refocused in the second half and ultimately pulled away from Kentucky, 45-17, but there were issues in the first half that could cause problems against better competition. Keelon Russel threw two interceptions, the Tide fell behind 17-13, and had just 5 rushing yards in the first half.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members could have fewer questions about the Aggies. Texas A&M has a similar résumé, as both Kentucky and Arizona State - the Aggies' Week 2 opponent -- are ranked within five spots of each other on ESPN's FPI. Both Alabama and Texas A&M beat similar Group of 6 opponents in Week 1.

Need to know: Alabama will host a Florida State team that hasn't played since its Sept. 7 loss to SMU, giving the Noles 11 days to prepare for their trip to Tuscaloosa.

Toughest remaining test: Nov. 7 at LSU. ESPN's FPI gives LSU a 62.2% chance to win.

10. Texas A&M Aggies (2-0)

Why they could be here: The offense scored, the defense scored, and the Aggies eventually pulled away to earn a respectable win against Big 12 opponent Arizona State. It wasn't always pretty, though, as the Sun Devils outgained Texas A&M 369-255, and Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed threw an interception. The Aggies struggled on third down, and couldn't get their running game going, but a win against ASU could increase in value if the Sun Devils are relevant in the Big 12 race.

Why they could be higher: With Alabama struggling in the first half against Kentucky, there are still some questions about the Tide's place in the pecking order. Alabama eventually pulled away -- as did the Aggies -- but part of it depends on which opponent the selection committee thinks was more formidable. Both Alabama and Texas A&M also have wins against Group of 6 opponents. Entering Saturday, Alabama had a significant edge in ESPN's Strength of Record metric (No. 19 vs. No. 41), but it's still very early to lean on that too heavily.

Need to know: The Aggies face Kentucky next, and the selection committee considers common opponents. If the committee had a strong debate between the Aggies and Tide, it would be one factor they'd discuss. Eventually, though, the head-to-head tiebreaker will settle it.

Toughest remaining test: Sept. 26 at LSU. If the Aggies can beat LSU in Death Valley, there's a good chance they'd be undefeated when they head to Alabama on Oct. 24.

11. USC Trojans (3-0)

Why they could be here: The Trojans have played the No. 73-ranked schedule to this point, with wins against San Jose State, Fresno State and now Louisiana. None of them are Power 4 opponents, and while USC has looked good for the most part against them, it's something the committee would consider. They're in good company, though, as a handful of teams are in similar spots right now, but the teams above USC have been even more dominant.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members would regard BYU's win against Arizona as better than any opponents USC has faced.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, USC would get bumped out of the bracket to make room for Boise State as the highest ranked team from a Group of 6 conference. Because No. 12 BYU would be locked in as the projected Big 12 champ, USC would be the next team to be bumped to make room for the Pac-12's top team.

Toughest remaining test: Nov. 14 at Indiana. It's a tricky place to play, let alone for a team traveling from the West Coast. USC gets Oregon and Ohio State at home. The trip to Penn State will likely be the White Out game, but a road trip to face the defending national champs looms larger than the others.

12. BYU Cougars (2-0)

Why they could be here: After beating up on Utah Tech in the season opener, the Cougars showed why they could again be a contender for the Big 12 title along with Texas Tech. BYU avoided an upset against a formidable Arizona team thanks to four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) from quarterback Bear Bachmeier. The defense held Arizona scoreless in the second half, but it's only the first win against an FBS opponent.

Why they could be lower: Texas Tech has a similar case for the No. 12 spot. The committee would likely consider Arizona a tougher opponent than Oregon State, though, which entered Saturday ranked No. 97 in ESPN's FPI. Arizona was No. 39.

Need to know: ESPN's FPI projects BYU will win its next three games, which means the Cougars have a strong chance to be undefeated heading into their Oct. 17 home game against Notre Dame.

Toughest remaining test: Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. It's the only game on the schedule ESPN's FPI gives BYU less than a 50% chance to win.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 Notre Dame

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 18 and 19

No. 12 Boise State (highest G6) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Indiana

Quarterfinal games

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.

No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Texas A&M/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Indiana winner vs. No. 1 Texas