Final words: Rugby world will feel it as Springboks and All Blacks bump heads in Baltimore

Both Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus and All Blacks counterpart Dave Rennie have been consistent in the message that this is a four-Test series, and the clash in Baltimore counts as much as the three in South Africa.

That hasn’t been the case from ex-players and media (this publication included), as the three Tests in South Africa felt like a series within a series.

The Boks took that segment 2-1 after winning at DHL Stadium in Cape Town and FNB Stadium in Soweto, with the All Blacks winning the opening clash at Ellis Park in Johannesburg.

The series can still be drawn if the All Blacks win in Baltimore, and whatever disappointment the tourists felt at falling short in South Africa will be replaced by another opportunity to topple the world champions.

Simplifying the equation, the Baltimore clash is a Test between the Springboks and the All Blacks, and whatever happened before doesn’t matter. All that counts is the 80 minutes to come.

In 2017, the All Blacks thrashed the Boks 57-0 in Albany, New Zealand. Two weeks later the All Blacks hung on for a 25-24 victory at Newlands.

Last year New Zealand defended their impressive Eden Park record where they haven’t lost since 1994, beating South Africa 24-17. A week later in Wellington, the Boks scored a record 43-10 win over the All Blacks.

New chapter and fresh narrative

Every game is a new chapter with a fresh narrative and form is no predictor of the result.

That’s what has made this rivalry the greatest in rugby over 105 years and 113 previous clashes.

When the Springboks and All Blacks bump heads, the entire rugby world feels it.

The Boks are also pursuing a third straight win against the All Blacks for the first time since 2009. The All Blacks haven’t lost three consecutive Tests since 2022, when they lost twice to Ireland and then to the Springboks.

“I know a lot of people said that this is the series here in South Africa, but it is not – we’ve played three games here, and we’re one up, but the final game is still to come,” Erasmus said after last week’s 29-24 win in Soweto.

“We can’t lose it anymore because there’s no points difference or tries scored as in a tiebreaker. But the trophy was actually designed in two halves to be shared if it’s a draw.”

The neutral venue may give the All Blacks more hope after facing a hostile environment in the previous three weeks, but the Boks have been gaining momentum through the series.

Mo’unga returns

While Erasmus has chosen virtually the same side that won the third Test – only injured utility back Cheslin Kolbe is missing with Damian Willemse coming in at fullback – the All Blacks have been forced into changes.

Before the first Test, Erasmus predicted that the series would wear teams down physically and mentally. He has proved to be spot on again. While New Zealand came through the first two Tests relatively unscathed, the Soweto dust-up took its toll.

Inspirational captain and No 8 Ardie Savea dislocated a shoulder and did not travel to the US. Centre Quinn Tupaea suffered a knee injury and flank Luke Jacobson has an elbow tendon strain.

They were three of the most influential players for the All Blacks in South Africa.

But Rennie was able to bring back experience by recalling flyhalf Richie Mo’unga for his first Test since the final of Rugby World Cup 2023 after a stint in Japan.

Hooker Codie Taylor, a 111-cap Test veteran, has also been recalled after missing out in Soweto and will captain the team.

Rennie has also turned to vast experience on the bench with utility backs Beauden Barrett and Rieko Ioane set for first Test appearances in the series. Combined they add another 232 Test caps.

Both Ioane and Barrett were in good form during the early stages of the tour when the All Blacks played against South African club sides. But neither has played for three weeks now, which comes with some risk.

“We’ve lost a fair bit of experience with injury with Luke and Ardie out,” Rennie said of last week’s captain and vice-captain. 

“When Ardie was captain, when he left the field, Luke took over. With both of them unavailable, we felt Codie coming back in, he’s an excellent player, but gives us a lot of experience and leadership, and that’s been really valuable throughout the week.”

Black attack

While the Boks have improved over the series, they have battled to corral the All Blacks’ piercing attacking play, conceding 13 tries in three Tests. There were five in the first, and four each in the second and third Tests.

While that statistic looks poor, there is an argument that lesser sides with weaker defensive structures would have conceded double the number of tries.

In a way, the Boks’ defence, especially their scrambling efforts once the first line has been breached, has been excellent.

Naturally, the All Blacks talked up their attack in the build-up to this Test with assistant coach Mike Blair suggesting that they can score many more tries with slightly more accuracy.

“Our finish success rate inside the 22 over the three Tests has been excellent on the whole, so we want to get more out of our attack and our ability to finish,” Blair said.

“We’re aware that you can’t finish every opportunity, but we don’t want them to finish in a turnover. If it finishes in a turnover, what’s happening is it goes to a set piece. This slows the game down a bit, and it feeds their strength.

“So, our balance between finishing our opportunities and keeping the pressure on through multiple phases is really important.”

Outside of the first Test though, when the Boks were well below par in terms of their finishing, the world champions have also scored eight tries in Tests two and three.

While the return of lock Patrick Tuipulotu and flank Ethan Blackadder adds some grunt to the All Blacks pack, it doesn’t feel like enough to unsettle the menacing power of the Bok eight.

The Boks also appear to have more class among the forwards on the bench, which is where the game has been won and lost in the past two weekends.

It all points to another Springbok victory, but if there is one thing the Greatest Rivalry series has shown, it’s that making predictions is folly.

All we know for sure is that, for the 114th time, the match will be a benchmark of the sport.

The watching rugby world (and the new fans in Baltimore) will come away knowing they have seen the game’s two best teams pushing each other to the limit once again. DM