Mexico’s 2026 growth outlook improves in Banxico and Citi surveys

Economic growth in Mexico in 2026 is expected to be higher than previously predicted, according to the median forecasts of economists and analysts surveyed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and Citi.

Conducted in late October, Banxico’s most recent expectations survey yielded a median economic growth forecast of 1.5% in 2026, up from a prediction of 1.4% in September. Economists and analysts from 40 Mexican and foreign private sector economic research and consulting groups responded to the survey.

Economists consulted by Citi for its latest expectations survey are more optimistic about Mexico’s 2026 growth prospects. Their median forecast is 1.8% growth this year, up from 1.4% in the previous survey. Economists from 36 banks, brokerages and research organizations responded to Citi’s survey, whose results were published on Wednesday.

The range of 2026 growth estimates among the economists surveyed by Citi went from 0.9% to 2.1%.

According to preliminary data published by the national statistics agency INEGI last week, Mexico’s economy grew 1.9% in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the same period of 2025.

The economy contracted in sequential terms in the first quarter of the year, but expanded in both Q2 (+1.4% compared to Q1) and Q3 (+0.9% compared to Q2, per preliminary data).

President Claudia Sheinbaum said last week that construction, including housing and public infrastructure projects, was helping to drive growth. Sheinbaum also noted that the production of electronic products in Mexico — many of which are exported to the United States — was providing momentum to the economy.

Growth outlooks for 2027 

The median forecast of economists surveyed by Banxico is that Mexico’s economy will grow 1.83% in 2027. The prediction is up slightly from 1.80% in the central bank’s previous survey.

The median forecast of economists surveyed by Citi is that Mexico’s GDP will increase 1.9% next year, up from a 1.8% prediction in the bank’s previous survey.

Inflation predicted to approach 4% by end of year  

The median forecasts for Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate at the end of 2026 were 3.88%, according to the Banxico survey, and 3.90%, per the Citi survey. The Banxico forecast rose by 0.01 percentage points while the Citi forecast was unchanged compared to the bank’s previous survey.

Inflation increased in September for a second consecutive month, reaching an annual headline rate of 3.45%. The headline rate spiked to 3.62% in the first half of October, according to INEGI’s most recent inflation data.

Despite the recent increase in inflation, the Banxico board decided on Thursday to lower the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%. Just six of the 36 respondents to Citi’s survey predicted that the bank would cut its key rate after its November monetary policy meeting.

What will the USD:MXN rate be at the end of 2026?

The median forecasts for the USD:MXN exchange rate at the end of 2026 were 18.39, according to the Banxico survey, and 18.50, per the Citi survey. The Banxico forecast increased from 17.50 in the previous survey, while the Citi prediction rose from 18.20.

The Bank of Mexico’s closing USD:MXN rate on Thursday was 18.75. That rate represents a depreciation of 9.9% for the peso since Sept. 4, when it closed at 16.89 to the dollar — its strongest level in over two years.

The MND Peso Index™ determined that the peso was undervalued by 0.7% in early October when it was trading at just below 18 to the US dollar.