B.C. Conservatives maintaining two-point lead less than two weeks from provincial election: poll

Less than two weeks away, the B.C. provincial election remains a close race between the Conservatives and the NDP, according to a new poll from Leger.

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The Conservatives are holding a narrow two-point lead among decided voters, the Leger data suggests. Meanwhile, there is growing support for the two leading parties, but a significant share of voters are open to changing their minds before they go to the polls on Oct. 24.

At present, 42 per cent of decided voters support the Conservatives, compared to 40 per cent who support the NDP. Support for the Green party has dropped, falling 13 per cent in September to 9 per cent in October. That said, 26 per cent of British Columbians polled by Leger say they are likely to switch their vote, especially among voters 18 to 34 years-old.

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Notably, 56 per cent of B.C. residents believe the province is heading in the wrong direction. That compares with 34 per cent who believe it is moving on the right track.

Since Leger’s September poll, Conservative support has climbed three points, while NDP support has increased by four points.

“With just two points separating the parties, neither has established a clear lead as the campaign enters its final weeks,” says Leger.

NDP support is concentrated on Vancouver Island. It holds a narrow advantage in Metro Vancouver. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are stronger in the rest of the province. Leger contemplates that the regional differences could be important in determining how the province-wide race translates into individual riding results.

The choices for voters supporting smaller parties could become important in ridings where their preferred party is not running a candidate. According to Elections BC’s official candidate list, not all parties are fielding candidates in every riding. Among supporters of smaller parties, 29 per cent say they will vote for the NDP if their preferred party does not have a candidate in their riding, while 21 per cent will vote Conservative. Another 22 per cent would vote for a party other than the NDP or Conservatives.

Green supporters may be the most open to reconsidering their choice, says Leger. More than one-third (37 per cent) indicate they are likely to switch parties, compared with 23 per cent of Conservative supporters and 20 per cent of NDP supporters.

Turning to the leaders, 39 per cent say their opinion of David Eby has worsened over the past week. Only 13% report an improvement. Nearly half (47 per cent) of B.C. voters say their opinion of Eby remained unchanged.

For Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson,  20 per cent of voters say their opinion of him has declined, with 23 per cent reporting an improved opinion. A majority (56 per cent) report no change in their view of Doerkson.

Leger says that these differences should also be viewed in the context of each leader’s present position, with Eby as the incumbent premier possessing an established governing record, while Doerkson is relatively new to leadership and voters still forming their views of him.

“With neither party holding a commanding lead, the remaining campaign period leaves room for shifts in support, particularly among voters who are not firmly committed to their current choice,” states Leger.

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