Nigerian economy: The micro sits on the macro, By ‘Tope Fasua

Luckily the worst is over. The years 2023 and 2024 were for reform adjustments. While 2025 was the year that inflation went down and stayed down. From 2026 and going forward, these are the years we will start to count the sectors that are soaring and the human beings that are touched positively. But all over the world, it is now about hard work, good sense, adaptation, tech and so on. Nobody should sit back to be served on a platter, especially if you are young, able, educated and eligible.

A lot has aligned for the Nigerian economy. It is certainly not the doom and gloom that some people paint.  And those of us who keenly study every movement in the economy must never be cowed to point out what’s working.  We stand at a threshold, an epoch of greatness. But we must manage our enthusiasm. Life is not a bed of roses anywhere in the world. It will never be in Nigeria – or anywhere – for everyone. We must therefore test our statements, our expectations, for reasonability. For now, a lot is aligning on the macro space, waiting for the micro to layer on. In fact, the micro is already working for some segments of the economy. It’s also important to know that no nation stands in isolation; we work within a global ecosystem.  There cannot be job losses and fears from AI in other countries while we merely complain about graduates not finding employment here, rather than think hard and reposition, for instance. That said, here are some 20-ish indices currently ‘giving’ on the macro side, as Gen Zees will say:

1. Falling inflation at 14.63 per cent. Targeting single digit by 2027.
2. Falling interest rate levels. Targeting single digit. The Central Bank has already signalled this with a 300 basis points (3 per cent) interest rate reset.
3. GDP growing at 4.43 per cent. Prospects to hit 5 per cent or more by end of year.
4. Growing naira GDP figures. From ₦250 trillion five years ago to ₦531 trillion today. It is important to make this distinction because whereas measuring dollar GDP is important for global comparisons, we spend Naira in Nigeria and purchasing power parity economics teaches us that comparing dollar for dollar from US to Nigeria is erroneous and dishonest. A dollar here does the work of ten in the US.
5. Even at that, there is a major recovery in our Dollar GDP from $253 trillion in 2024 to $377 billion today.
6. ₦130 trillion or $100 bn added to Nigerian stock market and 94 per cent of players are local, meaning that Nigerians are prioritising Nigeria and bringing back money into the country from abroad. $100 bn of inflow is remarkable. And a burgeoning stock market means healthy companies across all sectors. The stock market is a barometer for the whole economy.
7. Nigeria recapitalised banks with 80 per cent local money for ₦4.75 trillion
8. Recapitalised insurance companies with local money with up to ₦1.5 trillion
9. Nigeria has had three years straight of growing balance of payment surpluses. That is $12 billion for the first half of 2026. It was $6 billion for the whole of 2024
10. Nigeria has had 13 straight quarters of trade surpluses since Bola Tinubu ascended. We have been selling more than we buy as a country. This is significant.
11. Stable to strengthening Nnaira – with adequate reserves, market makers believe the naira is now UNDERVALUED and will gain to at least 1200 to the $ by end of year or into next year. Even the IMF calls the naira at ₦1.127 to the US dollar.
12. Foreign reserves at 18 years high of $56 trillion with prospects to beat the 2007 high of $62 billion, thus setting new records and showing great economic stability.
13. Robust capital inflow of $6 billion in the first half of 2026 alone.
14. Zero states owing salaries unlike 27 under Buhari, 20 under Jonathan and 10 under Obasanjo.
15. Pensioners’ liabilities getting cleared at federal and state levels.
16. Low debt to GDP ratio of 38 per cent, signalling an under-borrowed nation by peer comparison.
17. Highly liquid states with growing Investments in local infrastructure e.g. local roads and bridges, agriculture and water, among other ventures.
18. Rẹ-industrialisation now happening with Nigerian companies standing in the breach. FMCGs, car assemblies, lithium factories, solar panel factories, even a chip maker in the semiconductor arena, apart from Fintechs and banks now taking their businesses abroad. In the oil and gas space, about 55 per cent of Nigeria’s crude production is now handled by local players – Seplat, Rennaisance, MRS, and the rest.
19. Explosion of e-Commerce and payment systems repositioning many Nigerians into better business liquidity. Our fintechs have taken their businesses to Europe, for instance.
20. More investments by states and the federal government in agriculture for food security. Plus, private sector participation in mechanised farming. Niger. Jigawa. Kano are some of the states in this space.
21. There seems to be an explosion of real estate and construction sectors. Many have complained that rents and house prices have leapfrogged. That may mean a new upper and middle class is being created from the ashes of the old system.

Many more developments exist that I may not have captured. These form the MACROECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS upon which microeconomic or the people’s bellies and pockets are meant to thrive. I have preached that building a solid foundation (macroeconomy) for the country was very crucial.  Focusing on immediate needs of the people is important, but without a foundation from which we could spring, it will be a waste of time and resources, and a courtship with economic collapse. If you want to build a skyscraper, a solid base is important. The government cannot keep throwing bricks in the hoping that they will stick together. There must be method, deliberateness, seriousness and focus.  Even Mr. President’s worst opponents agree that something has shifted for good in the macro space.  They cannot wriggle away from that. The international community acknowledges too.

And already, even in the micro space – people’s kitchens, people’s pockets, company balance sheets, some momentum is already being achieved. Some sectors are moving ahead of the pack and redefining their destinies.

Below are the segments already benefiting from this great repositioning:

1. Civil servants across the country who now get paid regularly. They number in MILLIONS…they and their dependants are doing better today
2. Students benefiting from NELFUND, and their parents who would have been under tremendous pressure to come up with school fees. These parents have been saved the trouble of coming up with close to ₦400 billion in school fees. Some 1.6 million students are benefiting from NELFUND and getting ₦20,000 monthly stipends means ₦32 billion relieving their troubles. This money goes to landlords, mamaputs, markets around the students.
3. Universities and polytechnics now getting their fees regularly and fulfilling their contractual obligations with contractors and teachers and non-teaching staff. Hence no major strikes and delays for students.
4. Exporters of commodities and FCMGs …including Nigerian car companies. They benefit from a weaker Naira but are making brisk business.
5. Workers, regulators and contractors of oil and gas companies. They make more money when crude prices are high. They number at least a million and have many dependants (each oil company worker has an average of 10 dependants – workers and family.
6. Banks, telecoms, fintech companies, their staff and dependents. These companies declare trillion in yearly profits. Our fintechs are very aggressive and are setting global records.
7. Manufacturing companies, their staff, value chain suppliers, and their dependants. A few years ago, these companies made losses. Many couldn’t find dollars to bring in their inputs of machinery, spares etc. Today, they no longer suffer. Google and see that the FMCG conglomerates are back in black.
8. Companies who understand tech leverage especially those who have online presence. Many Nigerians are making cool money from the new global and Nigerian Economy from the comfort of their homes eg online deliveries. I have realised that many companies that complain are/were unable to develop and online presence and expand their markets or are steeped in some obsolescence.
9. Media workers …broadcasters.. on-air personalities, companies, and their dependants. In the new info age, these guys are minting it. Sometimes from spreading sensational news about Nigeria. That gets the clicks. Yes
10. State government contractors, their staff and dependants. States now pay contractors quickly because they are very liquid. Many contractors now choose to work at state level. And by many reports (World Bank, NBS etc), there is an explosion of infrastructure building at state level.
11. Transporters using CNG and making super profits.
12. Those in the outsourcing space including young Nigerians who work remotely for foreign companies.
13. Tech gurus.
14. Real estate sector where they sell properties in the billions and somehow find clients. Plus, there’s a real real estate boom in most Nigerian cities.
15. Entertainers, Event planners, Caterers. I know a local caterer who bought the land where she sells recently for about ₦300m. I was shocked. She told me herself. I know another that just completed her building worth over a billion naira.

So, I believe millions of Nigerians are already being touched. The civil service at state and local government level alone consist of between three to four million people, who have multiple dependents. Getting their arrears paid and getting their salaries promptly is something – at least the food poverty problem is mostly solved for them. The other sectors and activities we have analysed above too matter. And for each job or activity that is revived, there are many people who are touched in the loop. As u rounded this up, I was sent one of those viral WhatsApp posts by one of the President’s ardent opposers. It went like ‘Some educated Nigerians believe that hunger is reforms, poverty is reforms’ etc. There you go. I replied to the man – a former bank MD – immediately, wondering how some Nigerians expect reforms to bring no adjustments. Some Nigerians want change. But it has to be someone else changing.

Luckily the worst is over. The years 2023 and 2024 were for reform adjustments. While 2025 was the year that inflation went down and stayed down. From 2026 and going forward, these are the years we will start to count the sectors that are soaring and the human beings that are touched positively. But all over the world, it is now about hard work, good sense, adaptation, tech and so on. Nobody should sit back to be served on a platter, especially if you are young, able, educated and eligible. Step up! Stake your claim in the productive space. Stay positive and things will change for the better. More of the benefits are coming. And you can look at the policies I listed above line by line and see whatever I didn’t capture. Each policy opens a new vista of possibilities.

‘Tope Fasua is the special adviser to the President on Economic Matters.