The time has come for USC to pony up and pay Lincoln Riley's buyout after bottom falls out against Wisconsin

Buying out Riley may cost the Trojans as much as $70 million, but keeping him around may be even more costly for a blueblood program that expects to compete for national titles

Oct 24, 2026 at 11:17 pm ET • 2 min read

Lincoln Riley and USC already have two losses this season and haven't yet hit the most challenging stretch of their Big Ten schedule.

Uh-oh.

Saturday night's 24-7 loss at Wisconsin was marked by an abysmal offensive performance coming out of an open date for the No. 16 Trojans, whose only touchdown drive came in the second quarter. USC came into the matchup with the conference's seventh-best rushing offense, but managed minus-17 yards on 25 carries, which included a couple of sacks on Jayden Maiva.

USC's quarterback finished 31-of-50 for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions without any semblance of help from the backfield. With top-10 Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA looming over the final four games, this was as close to a must-win as it gets for Riley, who's now 41-20 overall in his fifth season and is in danger of missing the College Football Playoff — again.

USC's three Big Ten wins this season have come against teams with a combined conference record of 3-10. And considering Riley's 5-15 with the Trojans against top-25 opponents, the likelihood of USC climbing back into the at-large discussion is slim.

Riley opened his mouth a bit too wide about expectations over the summer and didn't back down from lofty goals.

"The expectations haven't changed, but I think our opportunity to seize that and (win) to me is more real right now than it's probably been in the first few years," Riley said. "The alignment and momentum in the program is real, palpable. We feel it. Our recruits feel it. Our team feels it. Our fanbase feels it. I think a lot of people across the country feel it, whether they like us or not. That's how it should be at USC."

Is any of that perceived momentum still out there?

Riley's contract is private, but despite a buyout estimated at around $70 million, according to CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz, at what number does it cost the Trojans more to keep him? Sure, next season's expected 24-team playoff likely means USC gets into the further-expanded bracket with nine wins, but is that a guarantee? 

Riley's failure last month against Oregon served as the appetizer for Saturday night's main -- not-so-delectable -- course in Madison. And remember: that 41-27 setback against the Ducks came against Dan Lanning's worst team thus far, particularly damning for a USC squad that had started the campaign with four straight wins and climbed inside the top 15.

What's the excuse after this flat showing in Week 8? Riley understands job expectations are high at USC, and it's already been widely reported this season that he's not necessarily safe if the Trojans fail to deliver with a CFP trip.

Perhaps the wheels are further in motion after his second loss, a car that will be screeching off the tracks if the Trojans struggle in the coming weeks against the Buckeyes and Hoosiers prior to rivalry weekend next month.