Vucic's mission: Can Serbia's longtime leader secure new mandate? - analysis

As Serbs head to the polls on Sunday in one of the most consequential elections in the country's recent history, Aleksandar Vucic is asking voters to place their confidence once again in the political leader who has dominated the Balkan country for more than a decade, overseeing a period of considerable economic development while pursuing a distinctive foreign policy that has allowed Serbia to maintain productive relations with the US, Russia, China, and Israel among them.

 Vucic, who resigned as president on September 27, is seeking to return to the prime minister's office, having served as prime minister between 2014 and 2017 before winning the presidency.

This election provides an opportunity to secure a fresh public mandate following almost two years of political unrest, after student-led demonstrations that began after the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad in November 2024, which killed 16 people and prompted widespread accusations of corruption, negligence, and a failure of public accountability.

Vucic is the head of a list called United Serbia, made up predominantly of his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), a party he helped found almost two decades ago, and the Serbian Radical Party, PUPS, the Serbian People's Party, the Workers' Party, the People's Peasant Party and the United Peasant Party.

Despite the two-year-long demonstrations, Vucic enters Sunday's contest with advantages, particularly among voters who associate his leadership with the modernization of Serbia's infrastructure, alongside improvements in living standards, and the stability of a country whose recent history since the breakup of Yugoslavia has been marked by conflict and economic uncertainty.

United Serbia coalition leading student-backed list, survey shows

An Ipsos survey published on Thursday placed his United Serbia coalition at 47.4% against 40% for the student-backed list, suggesting the governing bloc retains a sizable electoral base despite the sustained campaign against it. The survey, conducted among 3,624 respondents, was commissioned by Vucic's coalition, while other opinion polls have suggested a considerably closer race or an opposition lead.

The outcome remains uncertain, although the figures do indicate somewhat the continuing appeal of a leader whose critics have repeatedly predicted that his political dominance was approaching its end - a situation one may apply to Israel as the country heads to the polls on Tuesday.

From an Israeli perspective, Vucic's continued leadership would preserve an important and valued relationship with a European country that has maintained close diplomatic and defense ties with Israel (especially since October 7), frequently taking positions at odds with those of other European governments.

During an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post at the Presidential Palace in Belgrade last year, Vucic spoke candidly about Serbia's decision to supply Israel with military equipment almost immediately following the October 7 massacre, despite criticism from European leaders.

“I am the only one in Europe today dealing in military ammunition with Israel,” he told this writer at the time. “And it is why I am often criticized by colleagues.”

Vucic explained that Serbia had moved quickly to assist Israel in the days following the Hamas attacks, expediting the necessary government approvals to enable the transfer of urgently needed military supplies. The relationship has since deepened, with the two countries expanding cooperation in defense technology and military production, including plans for a joint drone manufacturing facility involving Israel's Elbit Systems.

The relationship also goes beyond defense cooperation. Trade and investment have grown considerably in recent years, while the two countries have also deepened their diplomatic engagement, culminating in the establishment of a formal strategic partnership earlier this year, which Foreign Minister Marko Djuric told the Post was an “historic step forward.”

Vucic: Serbia-Israel relationship rooted in shared history, security challenges

Vucic has consistently emphasized that Serbia's relationship with Israel is rooted in a shared history and an understanding of the security challenges facing both countries, sentiments he expressed during the interview in Belgrade.

“Our ties with Jews and Israelis – this is something different from a historical perspective up to the present day,” he said. “This isn’t policy or current politics, no. This is our politics of all times, and it will always have to remain so.”

With regard to the United States, Serbia's affinity with US President Donald Trump since his reelection is seen among its population, with a 2024 Gallup International survey finding that 59% of respondents would have supported him over Kamala Harris, the highest figure recorded in Europe. Earlier this month, Trump praised the Serb-US relationship, telling Newsmax Balkans that the two countries enjoyed "very good relations."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Djuric also launched a strategic dialogue in July covering economic cooperation, security, and energy infrastructure. For Vucic, closer relations with the US are a major development given the troubled history between the two countries, particularly NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999, while potentially helping Belgrade diversify its dependence on Russia.

Serbia has also developed an increasingly close relationship with the United Arab Emirates, where investment and trade, alongside energy cooperation, have strengthened diplomatic ties between Belgrade and Abu Dhabi.

Vucic's friendship with UAE President Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has become an important component of that relationship, with the Serbian leader expressing solidarity with the Emirates following the outbreak of the war with Iran in February.

One can see through these relationships the diplomatic approach Vucic has pursued throughout his leadership: cultivating close ties with Israel, the US, and Arab partners while maintaining longstanding connections with Russia and China, whose investments in Serbian infrastructure and industry remain important to the country's economic development.

Sunday's election will also determine whether Vucic can successfully navigate a considerable personal political transition.

Having served as prime minister between 2014 and 2017 before winning the presidency, his resignation last month opened the way for a return to the office through which he first consolidated his leadership of Serbia. His decision does carry some political risk, particularly given the strength of the opposition movement, but it is also a reflection of Vucic's confidence that his electoral appeal remains sufficiently strong to secure another governing mandate.

For a country of approximately 6.5 million people, Serbia has established a diplomatic presence considerably greater than its demographic or economic weight might suggest, cultivating relationships with major powers and influential Middle Eastern partners while continuing to pursue its own national interests.