Likud braces for turnout battle, divided over Netanyahu's chances on eve of Election Day - analysis

The party also criticized the Central Elections Committee, which, they claimed, focused on enforcing restrictions on campaign videos and the use of public resources.

Likud headquarters is divided over the party’s chances on Monday, one day before Israelis go to the polls. Some members are confident of victory, while others worry about efforts to turn out voters in the camp opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a Likud source.

Those who are confident rely on the optimistic forecasts of Shlomo Filber, who runs Likud’s internal polls.

“We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so,” the Likud source said. Regarding Filber, he added: “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other.”

'The nonprofits affair on steroids'

One of the Likud’s concerns is the activity of organizations and nonprofits that, according to party sources, are pouring large sums of money into boosting turnout in the rival camp. Sources said a wide-ranging effort, not directly funded by the parties, ran throughout the campaign. It included social media campaigns, signs, field events, rides for Arab voters, and efforts to get Israelis abroad to fly in and vote.

A Likud source called this “the nonprofits affair on steroids,” claiming the organizations give parties opposed to Netanyahu an extensive support network outside party-financing rules.

The party also criticized the Central Elections Committee, which, it claimed, focused on enforcing limits on campaign videos and the use of public resources while paying too little attention to the organizations’ activity. However, the sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts they cited or for the claim that the activity broke the law.

Likud is preparing for an extensive field operation on Election Day

At the same time, Likud is preparing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day, despite restrictions on getting information from polling stations, and is focused on keeping right-wing votes from going to smaller parties. Efforts to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander and head of the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race failed, even after talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement backing Winter.

Likud is also courting supporters of other right-wing slates, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Meanwhile, Rabbi Abergel’s Ahi party has already dropped out of the race after talks with Likud, during which they also raised the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister.

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, after the election date was set for October 27, allowing Netanyahu’s government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided.