Atiku is right, subsidy removal needs revisiting – 2

Some called it lunacy; others were more polite in their condemnation of the idea of government reversing itself. Few did the rational thing when confronted with a proposal on a vital public interest. Most of Atiku’s traducers were political opponents; who were afraid that the idea might just be popular and could tilt the 2027 Presidential Elections in his favour. Others were just the traditional Atiku haters; still smarting from the fact that, despite everything a former President had done to destroy his former Vice President, the man remains an enduring political force to be reckoned with. I am not Atiku’s Economic Adviser, and it is not clear if he has an Economic Advisory Team who conducts some research before he makes his press releases. Irrespective of how he arrived at the decision, it is an idea begging for attention and serious national discussion; not emotional and abusive out-bursts.

A very recent occurrence prompted my return to this topic today. The Vice Presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, temporarily broke ranks with the Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, when he endorsed the idea of restoring subsidy; in order to address the need for a more people-oriented reform agenda. Reading Kwankwaso, one could get the feeling that he believes that the current reform agenda embarked upon by Tinubu lacks a human face. There is a need for reset.

Vastly increased revenue and crushing debt burden

“FG seeks fresh $1.5bn World Bank loan” – Report, September 28, 2026.

The report, which could not have come at a better time, as government propaganda struggles to overcome the pains 99.9 per cent of Nigerians can feel, reminded us that “Nigeria’s public debt climbed to N166.79bn at the end of June 2026.” To begin with, the new loan, $1.5bn will add N2.1 trillion to the existing debt burden.

 Worse still, on May 29, 2023, when President Tinubu, speaking off the script, announced that “fuel subsidy is gone”, the national debt was under N100 trillion. It rose to N122 trillion by 2024; and is now N166.79 trillion halfway into 2026 and racing towards N170 trillion before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the FG has been bragging about the vastly increased revenues brought about by its reforms anchored on subsidy removal. The FG proudly announced that the three tiers of government shared N3.007 trillion in July and N2.338 trillion in August 2026. The revenue for the two months alone exceeds what any previous government collected in a year; yet hope has turned to despair. Nigerians per person now owe more than ever in history; poverty is getting worse. How any patriotic Nigerian can oppose the proposal to re-visit the fuel subsidy removal defies logic and commonsense.

Options available

“Some act and think later; and they think more of excuses than consequences” – Professor G K Galbraith.

Tinubu made a monumentally consequential decision before he had selected the people to work on the intricacies of managing the fundamental changes it will bring about. One predictable change was hyper-inflation. Any sudden rise in the price of a commodity, widely consumed, induces currency devaluation. Consumers can buy less for the same amount previously spent. Governments embarking on such changes are advised to prepare and launch the palliatives, either before or simultaneously as the policy change is announced. Tinubu waited until the negative impacts of subsidy removal were felt nationally before scrambling to offer relief. Even then, his Ministers, charged with executing the relief programmes were ill-prepared. People invited to “come and eat” are never prepared to face the difficult tasks associated with serving millions of poor people. The reform agenda was a failure because of top level incompetence. Why not step back and reset?

 When the price of petrol skyrocketed to N1300-1400 per litre in September 2026; and transport fares rose in tandem, there was very little doubt in my mind that the FG, without admitting that Atiku was right, would be forced to respond – in their usual manner.

 One option which nobody has explored is to keep subsidy open but to eliminate the corruption which had bedeviled the policy. Incredibly, despite the widespread allegation of corruption associated with fuel subsidy, nobody has specifically defined the nature of the corruption. None has quantified it. It is axiomatic that it is impossible to control what you cannot describe and measure. At the very least, there should have been a forensic audit of subsidy payments for at least two years – who was paid, for what and were there discrepancies between what was ordered and delivered.

 Even if financial malpractices are discovered, decision makers can penalize those found culpable, perhaps by fining them double what was stolen; ban them permanently from participating in future contracts and even jail them. Subsidy removal should have been the last option. Every Police Station displays a sign announcing BAIL IS FREE. But, we all know that bail is never free in every station. That is a trillion naira corruption taking place right in front of our eyes. Is closing all Police Stations the answer?

Promise of cheaper transport on October 1

“Goals are dreams with deadlines.” Albert Einstein, 1879-1955.

“If you believe that you will believe anything.” That is my usual response to any government promise made in panic and which cannot possibly be redeemed on time. Dreaming is not bad, as long as the dreamer(s) wake up to reality. Weekend Trust, September 26, 2026, exposed the false promise with its report titled “Nigeria’s Oct 1 Transport Deadline: Vision vs. Reality”. Before that report, I have searched in vain for a new CNG station in Lagos Island and Mainland. The research was outsourced to friends living in Ikorodu, Epe, Magodo, Mushin, Ajegunle and Festac. The reports were uniformly depressing. But, I still kept hope alive. In the few places where CNG outlets were available, the queue and the cost of conversion to gas is discouraging potential customers. In Lagos, which has 15 gas stations, motorists in Eti-Osa, Epe, Agbowa, Lagos Island, Ikorodu, Yaba, Orile, Ajegunle, etc, would have to travel over 40 kilometres, one way, to buy gas for their cars. Then they will have to stay in the queue for hours as an additional hardship. Obviously, most of Lagos State will not be ready for the announced cheaper fare promise on October 1.

“No CNG facility in Taraba, Benue, Plateau”. Weekend Trust, September 26, 2026.

It is difficult to imagine how Nigerians living in the three states will experience any relief on October 1 without a single gas station in sight. That is official propaganda at its worst. A little better are Rivers and Kogi States with three stations each. Less fortunate are: Gombe, Adamawa, Katsina, Ondo and Zamfara have one station for states which are twenty to fifty times the size of Lagos.

 There is no need to list all the states of the federation and the number of stations servicing each of them. The roll out is obviously too little, too late and will be followed by excuses after its failure.