THE GATHERING 2026: Number of local coalitions to rise steeply after 4 November

Coalitions at local government level are here to stay and their number could increase from 88 to 110 in the 2026 local government elections, says political scientist Susan Booysen, Wits University professor emeritus and now an independent analyst.

Booysen told Daily Maverick’s The Gathering 2026 on Friday, 11 September, that the number of municipal coalition governments had been projected to increase from 71 to 85, the number of district government coalition governments, from 13 to 18 and the number of metro coalitions from five to seven.

She said this could be the result of the continuing decline of the ANC and the DA either holding its ground or gaining support but usually falling short of 50%. She noted that the ANC still controlled 105 out of 205 local councils.

“Fragmentation of the main parties is one of the signs of the times,” she noted, but added that the divisions of the past remained deep, even insurmountable, and many voters would “park their votes in minor or micro parties or hide in abstention, a deliberate withdrawal, rather than vote en masse for an ‘enemy’”, Booysen said, referring particularly to the reluctance of ANC supporters to switch to the DA.

The result so far had been and would continue to be that these micro parties were gaining power well above their support levels, becoming “strident in kingmaking, claiming inordinate power and distorting democracy”, she added.

They would often be given positions of power such as mayorships by larger parties as they struggled to assemble majority coalitions.

These arrangements tended towards instability, including coalition-crossing, aggravating the challenges of governance at that level, she said.

She noted that internationally (where coalitions had been around a long time), several measures had been introduced to stabilise coalition government, including transparent coalition agreements and the proportional allocation of posts in the executive.

Coalition legislation lagging

But she said several measures that had been proposed in SA to try to stabilise local governments by reducing the disproportionate power of micro parties – such as limiting representation in local councils to parties that won more than 1% of the vote – would not be available for the November elections, in part because the Coalition Bill would not be passed by Parliament in time.

A draft Local Government White Paper, which would include stabilising elements, would also not be ready.

Booysen said the trend of coalition governments at local level had generally risen. There were 29 coalition governments after the 2000 elections; 31 after the 2006 elections; 37 after the 2011 elections; 27 after the 2016 elections; and 82–88 (depending on different calculations) since the 2021 elections.

She noted that while public opinion was divided about the Government of National Unity, with 41% in favour and 40% against, there was a strong public sentiment in favour of coalitions at local government level, with 54% supporting parties working together and only 28% opposing this, according to an Ipsos poll.

Booysen added that ideals and ideology played little role in the choices of voters at local government level, and their concerns were much more about service delivery.

She did not make specific predictions about which parties were more likely to form coalitions with each other but did forecast in general that vertical coalitions were more likely than horizontal ones. By which she meant that ideologically similar parties such as the ANC, EFF and MK were less likely to form coalitions than ideologically disparate parties such as the ANC and DA.

She said the IFP could align with anybody, and the Patriotic Alliance was and is aligning with the ANC “and the ANC has been playing them very well, getting those alliances going”. DM