November fuel price: Major shift in latest forecast

South African motorists still face another petrol price increase in November, but the latest figures show a sharp drop in the amount they could pay at the pumps.

The latest available Central Energy Fund (CEF) projections, dated 15 October, point to an increase of R2.06 per litre for 95 petrol, down from an earlier estimate of R4.58.

The improved outlook comes after October’s steep fuel price hikes pushed inland 95 petrol above R30 per litre for the first time.

However, motorists are not out of the woods, with November’s projected increases still threatening to push fuel prices to new highs.

LATEST NOVEMBER PETROL PRICE PROJECTIONS

According to the latest CEF data, the expected increases have dropped considerably since the beginning of October.

The projected adjustments are:

• Petrol 93: Increase of R2.07 per litre
• Petrol 95: Increase of R2.06 per litre
• Diesel 500ppm: Increase of R1.32 per litre
• Diesel 50ppm: Increase of R1.38 per litre

If these projections hold, inland 95 petrol could increase from R30.25 to R32.31 per litre.

Motorists using 93 petrol could pay R31.95 per litre, up from the current R29.88.

Diesel prices could also climb further, adding to the costs faced by transport companies, farmers and businesses.

The diesel projections reflect wholesale prices, with pump prices varying between retailers.

WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE EARLIER PETROL PRICE WARNING?

The South African reported on 8 October that early CEF figures pointed to a possible R4.58-a-litre increase for 95 petrol in November.

At the time, the projections raised concerns about another substantial fuel price increase, just days after October’s adjustments took effect.

The latest estimate is R2.52 per litre lower than that initial warning.

The improvement reflects smaller daily under-recoveries recorded during October, which have gradually reduced the projected monthly increase.

However, elevated international petroleum prices and fluctuations in the rand-dollar exchange rate continue to weigh on local fuel costs.

South Africa imports crude oil and finished petroleum products, leaving domestic prices exposed to movements in international markets.

MOTORISTS STILL FACE ANOTHER INCREASE

The latest projections follow one of the steepest monthly fuel price increases of 2026.

On 7 October, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources implemented the following increases:

• Petrol 93: R3.12 per litre
• Petrol 95: R3.33 per litre
• Diesel 500ppm: R2.84 per litre
• Diesel 50ppm: R3.24 per litre

The adjustments pushed inland 95 petrol to R30.25 per litre, placing further pressure on households already battling rising living costs.

Another increase in November could also drive up transport and distribution costs, adding pressure to food prices and other essential goods.

WHEN WILL NOVEMBER PETROL PRICES TAKE EFFECT?

The next fuel price adjustment will take effect on Wednesday, 4 November 2026.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official petrol and diesel adjustments towards the end of October.

Until then, the projections could change as international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate fluctuate.

The latest figures offer motorists some relief from the earlier forecasts, but another increase remains on the cards.