Sara Duterte's lead over Leni Robredo narrows to 7 points in 2028 matchup --OCTA

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Vice President Sara Duterte’s lead over former vice president Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup has narrowed to seven percentage points, the smallest gap recorded between the two by OCTA Research.

Results of OCTA’s third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey showed Duterte leading with 40% against Robredo’s 33%.

Twenty-six percent of respondents were undecided, chose neither candidate or did not know whom to support, while 1% refused to answer.

OCTA conducted the survey fieldwork from September 28 to October 4, 2026, using face-to-face
interviews. A total of 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above, both male and female, were interviewed for the study. The survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.

The gap has narrowed in each of OCTA’s three survey waves this year, from 11 percentage points in the first quarter to nine points in the second quarter and seven points in the third quarter.

Duterte’s lead remains outside the survey’s three-percentage-point margin of error, although the changes between the second and third quarters were mostly within or near the margin of error, OCTA said.

Between the second and third quarters, Duterte’s share declined from 43% to 40%, while Robredo’s slipped from 34% to 33%. The undecided, neither and don’t-know bloc grew from 22% to 26%.

Across the three survey waves, Duterte’s support fell six percentage points from 46% in the first quarter to 40% in the third quarter. Robredo’s share declined by two points, from 35% to 33%, while the uncommitted bloc increased by seven points, from 19% to 26%.

"The three-wave figures may suggest some softening in VP Duterte’s numbers and some growth in the uncommitted bloc; further waves would be needed to determine whether this reflects a sustained pattern," OCTA said.

Across the four major geographic areas, voting preference remains sharply divided. Robredo leads in the National Capital Region, 39% to 32%, with 29% selecting none or saying they do not know, and posts her strongest major-area showing in Balance Luzon, 49% to 24%.

Duterte leads in the Visayas, 46% to 27%, and records her strongest showing in Mindanao, where she receives 71% compared with Robredo’s 2%.

By socioeconomic class, Robredo leads among Class ABC, 40% to 32%. Duterte leads among Class D, 41% to 31%, with 28% undecided. In Class E, Robredo registers 42%, up 11 points from Q2, and is statistically tied with Duterte at 41%. —LDF, GMA News