Adamawa and the opposition’s illusion of strength, By Mohammed Dahiru Aminu

Those celebrating division should bring their arithmetic down from the clouds and put it on paper. An ordinary calculator is remarkably indifferent to political excitement. Nigeria has already supplied a recent illustration. In the 2023 presidential election, Bola Tinubu won about 37 per cent of the vote, while Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi received approximately 29 and 25 per cent respectively. The governing party retained the presidency, despite most votes being cast for other candidates.

The approaching governorship election in Adamawa State is producing a familiar confusion between the number of people opposing a candidate and the strength of the opposition confronting him. These are different things. Several candidates can agree that one man must lose, while making decisions that improve his chances of winning. Each may command genuine support. Together, however, they may produce a fragmented challenge that leaves their common opponent ahead. This is the central weakness in some of the arguments against Ahmed Galadima Aminu, the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). His critics point to the growing field of opponents as though every additional candidacy necessarily brings his defeat closer. I read the situation differently and my assessment is that the emerging contest gives the APC a credible and increasingly favourable route to victory.

For readers who have not followed recent developments, the essential background is a substantial rearrangement of Adamawa’s political alliances. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, who won office under the Peoples Democratic Party, joined the APC in February Consequently, the APC approaches this succession contest as the party controlling the state government. Analyses that still treat it simply as the opposition of the previous election begin from an outdated political map.

Galadima came into the contest with a background in public administration, having served as Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF). In May, he secured the APC governorship nomination. The announced results gave him 414,444 votes, ahead of Abdulrazak Namdas and Abdulrahman Haske. Several aspirants withdrew in his favour, while Haske disputed the process. These details matter because they show both the coalition behind his emergence and the internal disagreements that followed it. His emergence also exposed the weakness of an early dismissal. Those who regarded him as too unfamiliar to become a serious contender now have to explain how the supposedly insignificant candidate secured the party’s ticket.

There is a larger lesson here about political recognition. A person can be unfamiliar within a particular circle without being unknown in public life. National service does not become irrelevant because it takes place outside the daily conversations of local political commentators. Calling someone an “Abuja candidate” may be an effective slogan, but it does not settle the question of his competence or his connection to the people he seeks to govern. The legitimate question is whether Galadima can translate his experience into effective leadership for Adamawa. That deserves serious examination. Whether every critic had previously encountered him at a political gathering deserves considerably less attention.

The opposition landscape has meanwhile become more dispersed. Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed, popularly known as Binani, joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress in May. On 12 September, Haske announced his departure from the APC and acceptance of the Allied Peoples Movement’s governorship nomination. These developments create distinct centres of political ambition outside the governing party. Every candidate has the right to contest, but the analytical mistake begins when separate candidacies are treated as though they constitute a united electoral force. The ballot contains no space for “everybody against Galadima.” Votes belong to the candidates for whom they are cast, and shared hostility does not permit opponents to combine their totals after the election.

Anyone announcing that Galadima has no chance should explain where the votes will come from and how one opponent will assemble enough of them to finish ahead. My assessment is that the combination of the APC’s position in government and the opposition’s competing ambitions gives Galadima a substantial advantage. This is a political judgment, not a claim that votes have already been counted.

Nigeria’s constitutional framework makes this distinction consequential. In a governorship election contested by two or more candidates, victory requires the highest number of votes and at least a quarter of the votes in at least two-thirds of the state’s local government areas. A candidate, therefore, needs geographical breadth, but does not necessarily need more votes than all the opponents combined. Section 179 of the Constitution establishes these requirements. Consider a purely illustrative election in which the leading candidate receives 42 per cent, while three opponents receive 28, 20 and 10 per cent. The opponents collectively have 58 per cent. But none has defeated the candidate on 42 per cent, who can win if the geographical requirement is also satisfied.

Those celebrating division should bring their arithmetic down from the clouds and put it on paper. An ordinary calculator is remarkably indifferent to political excitement. Nigeria has already supplied a recent illustration. In the 2023 presidential election, Bola Tinubu won about 37 per cent of the vote, while Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi received approximately 29 and 25 per cent respectively. The governing party retained the presidency, despite most votes being cast for other candidates. That result does not prove that an opposition alliance would automatically have won, as voters cannot simply be transferred from one politician to another, as some might reject an alliance or abstain. The narrower lesson is sufficient: Substantial support distributed among competing opponents can leave the governing party ahead.

The same caution must apply to Adamawa. Haske’s departure cannot honestly be described as an unqualified gift to the APC. He contested within the party and may attract people who would otherwise support its candidate. Other opposition figures also possess their own political appeal. A serious argument must acknowledge this. But the next question is decisive. Will these candidacies draw predominantly from Galadima’s potential support, or will they also compete heavily for voters already determined to oppose him? Their existence alone cannot answer that question. Anyone announcing that Galadima has no chance should explain where the votes will come from and how one opponent will assemble enough of them to finish ahead. My assessment is that the combination of the APC’s position in government and the opposition’s competing ambitions gives Galadima a substantial advantage. This is a political judgment, not a claim that votes have already been counted.

Incumbency provides opportunities to maintain relationships across a state and present an identifiable record to voters. It does not confer ownership of the electorate. Similarly, a governor’s defection does not transfer every previous supporter into his new party. Galadima must earn support, and the APC must manage the disagreements created by its enlarged coalition. Nevertheless, an opposition divided over who should inherit power faces a coordination problem. Each candidate may believe that everyone else should step aside. Each may prefer to preserve his or her own ambition, rather than strengthen a rival. The governing party can benefit from that disagreement without persuading every opposition voter to change sides. Adamawa’s political complexity does not suspend this logic. Complexity may, in fact, make cooperation harder. Different alliances can sustain several credible challengers while preventing any one of them from becoming the dominant alternative. A sophisticated political environment can still produce a straightforward electoral advantage for the most cohesive camp.

I have heard the arguments, and my verdict remains that the APC is well placed to produce Adamawa’s next governor. I expect that governor to be Ahmed Galadima Aminu. Those who disagree should explain how their separate ambitions will become one winning total. Until they do, the celebration of opposition fragmentation looks less like an electoral strategy than a misunderstanding of the contest they hope to win.

This is why the discussion of Galadima’s qualifications also deserves more seriousness than it has sometimes received. His academic background includes a bachelor’s degree in agriculture and a master’s degree in banking and finance. His former leadership of the PTDF places administrative experience firmly within the discussion of his suitability. Granted, qualifications do not guarantee good government, but they remain relevant evidence when assessing preparation for responsibility. Critics are entitled to examine his decisions in office and question his proposals. They weaken their own case when they treat professional experience as meaningless, simply because it belongs to a candidate they oppose.

That brings us to the speech clip being used to ridicule him. Two questions must be kept separate. Was the recording manipulated or presented misleadingly? And does the performance shown establish that Galadima lacks the capacity to govern? The first requires the original recording and a proper comparison. Repetition cannot authenticate an allegation, whether it comes from his opponents or his supporters. The second claim can be challenged directly. Even an authentic stumble while delivering a prepared speech would not establish that a person cannot read, much less that he cannot administer a state. Public communication deserves scrutiny, but an awkward moment cannot reasonably bear the weight of a verdict on an entire career. If the clip was manipulated, those responsible owe the public an explanation. If it was not, critics still owe the public a convincing argument about its significance. Neither position allows mockery to substitute for evidence.

There is also a possible political cost to this fixation. Opponents who devote disproportionate attention to Galadima help make him the central figure in the contest. People previously unfamiliar with him may become curious about his background. Others may regard the ridicule as unfair and become more willing to hear his case. Such attention does not automatically create votes, but it can give him an opportunity that his critics did not intend to provide. A campaign cannot coherently insist that a candidate is irrelevant, while making him its principal subject. The same standard should apply to attempts to reduce the election to ethnic or religious belonging. Adamawa’s diversity requires candidates to build trust beyond their immediate constituencies. Citizens deserve an account of how they will be governed, not an invitation to distrust their neighbours. Galadima’s strongest response is to demonstrate that his ambition includes people who do not share his background or political affiliation.

My support for him rests on the conviction that his administrative experience deserves serious consideration and that the developing electoral contest favors his prospects. His opponents have every right to challenge that judgment. But they must do more than count the number of candidates standing against him and declare victory. The APC still has work to do. Galadima must connect his experience to the everyday concerns of the electorate and persuade voters that he can deliver, and confidence should sharpen that effort. I have heard the arguments, and my verdict remains that the APC is well placed to produce Adamawa’s next governor. I expect that governor to be Ahmed Galadima Aminu. Those who disagree should explain how their separate ambitions will become one winning total. Until they do, the celebration of opposition fragmentation looks less like an electoral strategy than a misunderstanding of the contest they hope to win.

Mohammed Dahiru Aminu ([email protected]) wrote from Abuja, Nigeria.