Raffy Tulfo, Padilla, Cayetano, Vico Sotto statistically tied in hypothetical 2028 Senate race

Combination photo shows Sens. Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto.

The Philippine STAR / Ryan Baldemor, Philstar.com / Ian Laqui and Martin Ramos

MANILA, Philippines — Sens. Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto are statistically tied at the top of a hypothetical 2028 senatorial race, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa survey by OCTA Research.

Tulfo registered a 47% voting preference, followed by Padilla with 45%, Cayetano with 44% and Sotto with 42%. The four share a rank range of first to fourth, meaning their relative positions cannot be considered statistically fixed.

Former senator Grace Poe followed with 36%, while Sen. Loren Legarda registered 31%.

Rounding out the list of prospective senatorial candidates were:

• Sen. Raffy Tulfo — 47%
• Sen. Robin Padilla — 45%
• Former Senate president Alan Peter Cayetano — 44%
• Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto — 42%
• Former senator Grace Poe — 36%
• Sen. Loren Legarda — 31%
• Makati City Mayor Abby Binay — 29%
• Mark Lapid — 28%
• Former Senate president Francis “Chiz” Escudero — 27%
• Sen. Sonny Angara — 25%
• Former senator Manny Pacquiao — 25%
• Broadcaster Ben Tulfo — 23%
• Sen. Jinggoy Estrada — 22%
• Former Senate president Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III — 20%
• Former presidential spokesperson Salvador “Sal” Panelo — 20%
• Former Sen. Mark Villar — 19%
• Former senators Gringo Honasan and Francis “Tol” Tolentino — 18% each

OCTA's ranking placed Tulfo, Padilla, Cayetano and Sotto within the same statistical rank range of first to fourth. Poe ranked fifth to sixth, while Legarda's rank range extended from fifth to ninth.

Changes from previous survey

Compared with the second-quarter 2026 survey, Tulfo's voting preference was largely unchanged, from 47.4% to 47%, while Padilla's figure declined from 53.9% to 45%.

Cayetano's rating eased from 45.4% to 44%, while Sotto's remained steady at 42%, compared with 42% in the previous survey.

Poe's preference fell from 44.5% to 36%, while Legarda's declined from 39% to 31%. Pacquiao also recorded a lower figure, from 34.5% to 25%.

Angara's rating rose from 19.2% to 25%, while Escudero's increased from 23.2% to 27%.

OCTA warned that comparisons between survey rounds should be made carefully because the lists of names presented to respondents differed.

The poll asked respondents whom they would likely vote for as senator if the May 2028 elections were held at the time of the survey, allowing them to select up to 12 names.

"The findings should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 senatorial election. They provide only a snapshot of voter preferences during the September 28 to October 4, 2026 fieldwork period," OCTA said.

"Preferences may change substantially as political alignments, candidacies, campaign conditions, public issues, and voter information evolve," it added.

The non-commissioned nationwide survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at a 95% confidence level.