Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied in potential Brazil runoff, polls suggest

Bolsonaro leads Lula by one percentage point in a Quaest poll, while Lula is ahead by one point in a separate BTG Pactual/Nexus poll. They remain statistically tied since the advantages are within the margin of error.

QUAEST POLL

• Bolsonaro, son of the former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 42% of voter support in a potential runoff, against 41% for Lula, a Quaest poll showed late afternoon.

• The previous Quaest poll, released on September 14, showed Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40%.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.

• In a first-round scenario, Quaest had Lula leading with 37% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (33%), Cury (6%) and Caiado (4%).

• Last week, the poll showed Lula at 36% and Bolsonaro at 31% in the first round.

• Quaest surveyed 2,004 people from September 17 to 20; the margin of error is 2 percentage points.

BTG PACTUAL/NEXUS POLL

• Lula would receive 46% of voter support, compared with 45% for Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed earlier in the day.

• A September 14 survey had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 46%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%) and Ronaldo Caiado (5%).

• The previous first-round survey had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37%.

• Nexus surveyed 2,006 people from September 18 to 20. The poll also has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Viga Gaier in Rio de Janeiro, Michael Susin in Barcelona and Gabriel Araujo and Andre Romani in Sao Paulo; Editing by Isabel Teles)